The Military Recruiting Crisis is Not in Recovery
By Ethan Brown, NSI Visiting Fellow
Recruiting has posed a profound challenge for the Defense Department over the past several years, as the American military grapples with a broader issue: the declining commitment to national service, commonly referred to as the “propensity to serve.” Previous studies of this phenomenon point to the “Ghost of the Global War on Terror (GWOT)” — societal fatigue after two-decades of post-9/11 wars. More than three years since the withdrawal of American forces in Afghanistan, what is causing fewer Americans to consider military service today?
One major factor is the declining faith in the American experiment itself. The military, which has a long tradition of remaining apolitical, increasingly is caught up in politics. Issues such as the proposal to use the military in domestic roles, the tug-of-war debate on military modernization-versus-foreign aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, the controversy over the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the impact of partisan policies on service members and their families, all weigh heavily on the minds of Americans as the country prepares for its upcoming election. Notably absent from government studies is the question of whether politics influences the propensity to serve.
The decline of recruitment across the military branches is stark. In 2023, the Army missed its 60,000-recruit goal by roughly 10,ooo recruits (with the Air Force and Navy also falling short of targets). The story was similar in 2022, with the Army and Navy missing their goals, while the Air Force barely met their year-end goal. The Marine Corps, by contrast, has just managed to meet their recruitment objectives during this same timeframe.
The Navy claims to have met its goal for 2024, but only by adjusting for initial commitments, not actual recruits entering and completing basic training — meaning they effectively fell short of their target by about 5,000 recruits this year. Similarly, the lowering of the Army’s 2024 recruitment goals to match those final cut-off numbers of preceding years accounts for the apparent end of the decline in recruiting. The Navy has also made drastic adjustments, including lowering entry testing scores to backfill “manual labor-intensive” billets, resulting in a significant uptick of category-4 enlistees, the lowest acceptable aptitude recruitment tier. Simply, the numbers presented as success is carefully-worded inflationary data. The Navy still missed its mark for 2024, while the Army celebrated achieving a lowered overall target.
Lowering of standards and recruitment targets to align with previous shortfalls is counterproductive for maintaining a healthy robust force and does not resolve the underlying problem. Over the last three years, total manpower requirements have continued shrinking, from a total force mandate of 833,549 in fiscal year 2022 to 798,235 for fiscal year 2024. With fewer Americans qualifying for military service, the more concerning issue is the shrinking pool if viable recruits who are inclined to serve, which poses a significant vulnerability to the U.S.
The root of the issue — a lack of faith in the institution of the military — is not with recruiters, who continue to work admirably to meet the demands of the force year-in and out. Rather, the issue is that American’s have lost their trust in the military as a pillar of our democracy. This loss of faith is driven by the increased politicization of the U.S. military and the growing distrust in the American body politic to steer the military appropriately as a tool of national security. Policy makers must consider and act against continued politicization in order to rebuild faith between the American people, and the miliary it entrusts with safeguarding this American experiment.
Ethan Brown is a Visiting Fellow with the National Security Institute at George Mason University, a senior fellow for defense studies at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress (CSPC), and veteran of the United States Air Force. He is the author of the “Visual Friendlies, Tally Target” book trilogy on air power in the post-9/11 wars. He is on X @LibertyStoic and Instagram @ethanbrownauthor
