Europe shows withdrawal symptoms after 75 years of addiction to US troops

The countdown has started.

During his first trip to Europe in February, United States Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth warned that the American military presence in Europe was "not forever," sending shockwaves through the continent's capitals.

Since then, U.S. and European officials have denied over and over again that the U.S. commitment to NATO under President Donald Trump is wobbling and that Washington is mulling withdrawing troops — but few doubt the moment will eventually come.

"I am sure that there will be some reduction of U.S. presence in Europe," said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe.

Estimates of the number of U.S. forces in Europe range from 70,000 permanent troops to 90,000. But all estimates show a marked decrease from the 1950s, during the Cold War's most tense years, when over 400,000 U.S. troops were stationed on the continent.

According to analysts and current and former U.S. military officers, withdrawing — or even reducing — American troop numbers in Europe would significantly reduce deterrence against Russia and cost money to both Europeans and Americans. A report from Germany’s Economic Institute (IW Cologne) warned this week that it could take 10 to 12 years for Europe to replace key U.S. military capabilities.

“It’s my advice to maintain that force posture as it is now,” U.S. European Command chief Gen. Christopher Cavoli, who's also NATO's supreme allied commander Europe, told U.S. lawmakers earlier this month.

"We collectively require a heavy ground presence, specifically to overcome that singular Russian advantage of being able to put their forces at our border," he said, adding that reducing the U.S. presence in Europe would inevitably "slow" a response to a Russian attack.

Cavoli retires this summer and Washington is reportedly mulling abandoning the NATO command after he leaves — allowing a European to take the job for the first time since the alliance was founded in 1949.

Self-fulfilling prophecy

Some countries want to prepare for a U.S. pullout rather than hope for the best, but not all capitals are on the same page, three European officials told POLITICO.

The largest European contingent of U.S. troops — more than 38,000 — is in Germany, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a United Kingdom-based think tank. There are also over 14,000 in Poland, 12,000 in Italy and 10,000 in the U.K.

Earlier this month, NBC News reported that the Pentagon is weighing removing up to 10,000 troops from Central Europe, mainly from Poland and Romania. Both countries vigorously denied the report.

Several European countries are demanding that Washington clarify its plans.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius asked Washington for a proper roadmap on potential troop reductions to start planning. His call was echoed by his Finnish counterpart, Antti Häkkänen.

So far, the Pentagon hasn't responded.

"The U.S. has obligations under NATO regional defense plans agreed at the 2023 Vilnius summit. If the U.S. says: 'OK, we're leaving,' that would have to be in coordination with allies to figure out how to change the plans and who can do what," Hodges said.

Other European governments still hope that the U.S. midterm elections in two years, and the next U.S. presidential election in 2028, will hobble Trump's power and restore the old alliance with the U.S.

They also fear that starting to prepare for the worst could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy and only accelerate a movement they're still hoping to avoid, the three European officials said.

"To quote [former German Chancellor Otto von] Bismarck, you don’t commit suicide because you fear death," Latvia's Defense Minister Andris Sprūds said at a conference in Paris earlier this month.

But it's not the first time that a U.S. administration has mulled reducing its military footprint in Europe to focus on Asia.

Under Barack Obama, the U.S. started to work toward that goal, but reversed course — and boosted the number of its soldiers in Europe — after Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

Costly withdrawal

The "first affected" by a U.S. troop drawdown would be Poland and the Baltic states, according to Ben Harris, a research associate for Europe and U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, who added that Europe's security as a whole would be weakened.

"A partial withdrawal would likely start with those U.S. troops that have been deployed since February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine under NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence program," he said.

U.S. troops in Europe fall under different regimes.

Permanently assigned forces are stationed long-term and come to Europe with their families; the majority of these are in Germany, Italy and the U.K. Long-term rotational forces, which are funded by money above the normal budget, include NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence and Operation Atlantic Resolve; the U.S. leads the multinational battlegroup in Poland. National Guard State Partnership Programs fall under bilateral agreements with European countries.

Trump would not need the approval of the U.S. Congress to reduce some troops in Europe, Harris explained.

However, any withdrawal or decrease in the U.S. presence would raise significant questions around cost and the tricky logistics of moving military equipment. The U.S. has deployed a wide range of equipment ranging from tanks to helicopters, ships and nuclear weapons. Its Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense units in Romania and Poland are particularly important for defending Europe from aerial attack.

During his first presidency, in 2020, Trump announced a plan to remove about 12,000 soldiers from Germany. Some were supposed to relocate elsewhere in Europe while others were to go home. "The plan stalled because of the expense involved with removing those troops," said Harris, and was eventually canceled by former President Joe Biden.

According to Hodges, the former U.S. commander, the uncertainty could push Europe's capitals "to combine their capabilities and defense industry."

American troops in Europe represent "nuclear deterrence, air and sea power. But on the ground, in terms of overall size and capability, Europeans have more power," he added.

Dato Parulava contributed to the graphics.