Intelligence Analysis
Critical Alert: Iran-Israel Armed Conflict
25 JUN 2025
/
4 min read

As of June 25, the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel continues to hold. Despite concerns over violations in the early hours of its implementation, the truce, announced by US President Donald Trump on his social media late June 23 and brokered by Qatar, took effect June 24. Both Iran and Israel have agreed to the truce.
Due to the ceasefire, Israel's Home Front Command lifted all restrictions on gatherings, schools, and workplaces as of June 25. The State of Emergency (SoE) remains in place until June 30. The US Embassy in Israel lifted its shelter-in-place order for all US government employees and families. Additional governments will likely start lifting movement restrictions in Israel in the coming days. While "do not travel" alerts remain in place for Israel and Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan, and governments continue to discourage "non-essential travel" to the Gulf countries, governments will likely update their recommendations if the ceasefire continues to hold.
Airspace closures are gradually being lifted as of June 25. Public transport, major roadways, and land border crossings within Israel remain operational, though occasional disruptions may occur depending on the security situation. Localized curfews or checkpoints may be implemented in response to specific threats. While security restrictions are gradually being lifted across the region, disruptions to air travel, government operations, and business activity are likely to continue in the coming days before the situation fully stabilizes and airports work through the backlog.
Security Risks in Iran
Domestically, Iran is also likely to intensify coercive tactics, notably the arbitrary detention of foreign nationals on fabricated charges such as espionage or subversion. Meanwhile, Iran's paramilitary forces have reportedly set up checkpoints across multiple provinces, closely monitoring travelers, particularly those carrying foreign passports, raising concerns about further arrests and harassment.
Security Risks and Israeli Domestic Measures
As of June 25, Israeli authorities continue to advise their citizens not to return via Jordan and Egypt due to an elevated threat of attacks.
Additionally, while most projectiles are intercepted, Yemen-based Al-Houthis continue to launch projectiles targeting Israel, with the latest strike recorded on June 15. Militant groups in the West Bank and Gaza continue to attempt attacks against Israeli government personnel, civilians, and foreign nationals. These typically take the form of shootings, stabbings, and vehicular assaults; however, there have been no major attacks since the beginning of the conflict with Iran. As a result, air raid sirens may continue to sound in multiple regions, and emergency services remain on high alert.
Cyber Attacks
Both Iran and Israel have increased their attacks in the so-called grey zone, including cyber attacks. On June 17, Iran's Sepah Bank, which maintains close links to Iran's Revolutionary Guards, recorded a cyber attack that affected several of its branches and disrupted bank services throughout the country. Similarly, Israeli authorities reported fraudulent messages assuming the identity of the IDF Home Front Command. Despite the ceasefire, additional cyber attacks are likely in the coming days and weeks, particularly against soft targets, diplomatic missions, Jewish or Israeli-linked sites, and Western interests abroad. Enhanced vigilance, intelligence coordination, and protective measures are likely to remain in place globally for the foreseeable future.
Elevated Global Threats Against Israeli Citizens and Jewish Communities
The global threat environment remains significantly elevated for Israeli citizens and Jewish communities. Governments in Europe, North America, and elsewhere are likely to raise national threat levels and deploy enhanced protective measures near Jewish institutions in the coming days.
Advice for Individuals and Organizations in the Gulf Region
- Defer all travel to Israel, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen until further notice.
- If incoming projectiles or rocket fire are reported, or if warning sirens sound in the vicinity, immediately proceed to the nearest bomb shelter and remain there until authorities indicate it is safe to leave. If no shelter is available, stay indoors, away from windows and exterior walls. If feasible, relocate to a ground floor or basement level for added protection. Minimize nonessential movement.
- Maintain regular contact with diplomatic missions for updates and assistance. Avoid all demonstrations, political gatherings, areas with a heavy security presence, and all military installations or government facilities, as these may become flashpoints for violence or targeted attacks.
- Before traveling, reconfirm the status of all flights and the operational status of major roads and border crossings. If air travel remains operational, arrive at airports well in advance to allow for extended security screening and potential delays.
- Continue to monitor reliable local media sources and official government channels for real-time updates. Follow all instructions issued by local authorities and security personnel without delay.
If your organization has people or assets in the Middle East, our experts can help to stay ahead of the situation and ensure operational resilience.
The following alert was taken from Crisis24 Horizon.
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