Bitfinex_Alpha

#Ethereum's core developers are engaged in discussions regarding a proposal that suggests a substantial increase in the maximum #validatorbalance **from #32ETH per validator to 2,048 ETH**. At present, Ethereum validators face an effective balance cap, which restricts their #stake to a minimum and maximum of 32 ETH. To earn a yield on amounts exceeding this limit, large-scale staking operations are compelled to deploy multiple validators. This practice has resulted in a significant surge in the number of #validators, with approximately **600,000** active validators and an additional **90,000** awaiting activation in the queue. MichaelNeuder, an #EthereumFoundation researcher and a key advocate of the proposal, presented his case during a recent Ethereum core developer consensus meeting last June 15th. Neuder argued that while the current validator cap promotes decentralisation, it inadvertently leads to an inflationary increase in the validator set size. By raising the cap, the expansion of the active validator set could be slowed down, subsequently improving the network's efficiency in achieving finality within a single Ethereum slot. Read [Bitfinex Alpha Issue #60](https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-60.pdf) to find out how this proposal may influence Ethereum's network performance, operational efficiency, and rewards for participants, and subscribe to our [weekly newsletter](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinexalpha/) not to miss important updates.

#Bitcoin's price-to-earnings ratio for #miners, currently at 73.3, is a top cyclical indicator as the #Bitcoinhalving approaches. This metric determines whether the current #BTCvalue is appealing for miners to sell their #Bitcoinbalance. Historically, #bearcycle lows have been characterized by #minercapitulation. However, the increasing metric suggests that miners can consistently sell their mined #BTC for profits. This sustained increase, following last year's $16,000 BTC bottom, hints at the early stages of a Bitcoin #bullmarket. Additionally, the Unspent Transaction Output (#UTxO) metric provides valuable insights into the behaviour of different cohorts of #Bitcoinholders. They are not selling profitable positions either! To learn more about these indicators and their impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory, see [Bitfinex Alpha Issue #60](https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-60.pdf). Subscribe to our weekly newsletter [here](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinexalpha/).

#Bitcoin bounces back from $25,000, but no significant #shortsqueeze occurs. Analysis of the short squeeze ratio and liquidation data indicates that the 8 percent rebound was not driven by short sellers. Typically, when Bitcoin's price rises abruptly, shorts face #margincalls or #stoplosses, leading to buying pressure and a potential short squeeze. Despite the downtrend sentiment, the recent rebound from $25k did not trigger substantial short squeezes. The absolute value of short liquidations remains relatively small compared to previous #BTC movements. These findings support the theory that the upward movement is not caused by short liquidations but may be attributed to significant #longpositions in #futurescontracts. Additionally, order flow analysis reveals a substantial increase in BTC aggregated #OpenInterest by over $800 million within a short timeframe after the price dipped below $25,000. Read the [Bitfinex Alpha Issue #59](https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-59.pdf) to find out what it means for the market's outlook, and [subscribe to our weekly newsletter](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinexalpha/) to stay informed.

In light of recent legal charges against #Binance and #Coinbase by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (#SEC), the #cryptomarket has responded. In [Bitfinex Alpha Issue #59](https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-59.pdf), we have thoroughly analyzed various metrics that shed light on the market's reaction to these ongoing #legalactions. These metrics include: - On-chain data reflecting #investorconfidence and resilience - #Inflows and #outflows on Binance and Coinbase #exchanges - The behaviour of Short-Term Holders (#STHs) and Long-Term Holders (#LTHs) - #WhaleMarketValue to #RealizedValue (#MVRV) - #CoinDaysDestroyed (#CDD) metric, among others. Discover more about these metrics and their implications by accessing the [detailed report](https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-59.pdf). As the legal disputes continue, it will be fascinating to observe the evolution of these trends and their implications for the market's future. Stay updated by subscribing to our [weekly newsletter](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinexalpha/).

Recent weeks have witnessed escalating concerns following the lawsuits issued against leading #cryptocurrencyexchanges #Binance and #Coinbase, which marked an upward tilt in #historicalvolatility (HV), often seen as an indicator of sudden short-term price movements. As the news of the lawsuits became public, a marked jump was observed in the crypto market's historical volatility. On June 10th, the BTC price fell to the mid 25,000s resulting in the largest #liquidation of #longpositions in #USD terms so far this year, amounting to a total of $348 million. The news flow clearly disrupted the market, but an analysis of several crucial crypto market metrics suggests a state of relative stability, as traders have largely maintained their positions despite the negative news flow. Read [Bitfinex Alpha Issue #58](https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-58.pdf) to see what the analysis of the movement of historical volatility in relation to #impliedvolatility indicates, and [subscribe to the Bitfinex Alpha newsletter](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinexalpha/) to get a portion of the market insights every week. #BitfinexAlpha #cryptomarketanalysis #cryptomarketresearch #Bitcoinmarketanalysis

A metric that conducts an #OrdinaryLeastSquares (#OLS) regression analysis of the relationship between #Bitcoin and the S&P 500 over the past 200 days shows that #BTC is now undervalued. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is a statistical technique used to estimate the relationships among variables. In the context of financial assets, OLS regression analysis can be used to understand the relationship between the returns of two assets. This metric aims to estimate a fair value for Bitcoin's price based on the current S&P 500 price. This analysis, which applies an OLS regression to the prices of Bitcoin and the S&P 500 over the past 200 days, yields a fair value for Bitcoin of $27,550. However, Bitcoin's current price, hovering in the mid-$25,000s (at the time of writing), is nearly $2,500 lower than this fair value estimate. This price difference represents an undervaluation of more than eight percent of Bitcoin compared to the estimated fair value. This undervaluation is the most significant since February. Find out more in [Bitfinex Alpha Issue #58](https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-58.pdf) and subscribe to our weekly newsletter [here](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinexalpha/). #BitfinexAlpha #BitfinexAlpha58

#Cryptocurrency giant #Tether, has made an exciting move into the #Bitcoinmining industry by establishing operations in Uruguay. The company aims to leverage renewable energy sources to mine #Bitcoin, in collaboration with a local licensed company, and diversify its revenue mix. By venturing into the energy sector and investing in #renewableenergy production, Tether is taking its first steps towards sustainable and responsible #Bitcoin mining. The use of renewable energy for mining will minimise the #ecologicalfootprint of its #mining operations while maintaining the security and integrity of the #Bitcoinnetwork. What is Tether's main goal, and why does this represent a significant milestone for the company? Find out in the [Bitfinex Alpha Issue #57](https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-57.pdf) and [subscribe](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinexalpha/) to our newsletter not to miss important updates! #BitfinexAlpha #cryptomarketresearch #Cryptonews #BitcoinNews #USDT

#Bitcoinminingdifficulty is poised for a record high, reflecting a consistent rise in the number of #mining machines competing to secure the #network. The #difficulty is a measure of the computing power required to #mine a #Bitcoinblock or, in more technical terms, to find a hash below a given target. A high difficulty means that it will take more #computingpower to mine the same number of blocks, making the network more secure from attacks. According to the data from the figure below, the #BTC mining difficulty has risen to 51.23 trillion as of the bi-weekly adjustment on May 30th. This signifies an increase of more than 2.7 percent in the difficulty that individual miners encounter as they endeavour to unearth a Bitcoin block. Check the [Bitfinex Alpha #57](https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-57.pdf) to find out what the rise in mining difficulty can indicate, and subscribe to our weekly newsletter [here](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinexalpha/). #Bitcoin #mining #miningdifficulty #BitfinexAlpha

The #cryptocurrencymarket has entered a quieter phase: metrics such as network fees, active addresses, and transactions have seen a decrease for both #Bitcoin and #Ethereum in the past few weeks, while price movements have remained relatively stable. A noteworthy development poised to spur #Layer2 (L2) adoption is the advent of #protodanksharding. This mechanism aims to reduce transaction costs by introducing "data blobs" to provisionally store data on #L2 transactions until they are validated by #Layer1 (L1). This replaces the existing "#CALLDATA" system, where data is perpetually stored on the #mainnet. Since more than 90 percent of L2 transaction costs are allocated to #L1 data storage, the implementation of data blobs under #EthereumImprovementProposal (@EIP) 4844 is projected to reduce L2 fees by at least ten times. Learn more about the technical deployment of Proto-Danksharding and the implications for users in [Bitfinex Alpha Issue #56](https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Bitfinex-Alpha-56.pdf), and [subscribe](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinexalpha/) to our weekly newsletter to stay tuned. #BitfinexAlpha

The #cryptomarket has been experiencing a period of low #impliedvolatility since the #FTX decline and subsequent volatility spike in November. Seven-day implied #volatility has decreased to under 40 percent after peaking at 76.23 percent in March. While implied volatility has not shown any signs of stabilisation, when contrasting this with #realisedvolatility, we get better insights. - **Historical Volatility** or **realised volatility** refers to the actual volatility demonstrated by an asset in the past over a specific period, while - **Implied volatility** is a metric that captures the market's expectation of future volatility. It's not based on historical price changes of the asset itself but rather derived from the prices of options on that asset. Check the [Bitfinex Alpha Issue #56](https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Bitfinex-Alpha-56.pdf) to find out what info about market sentiment and expectations the relative values of HV and IV can provide and what events have the potential to stimulate volatility organically. Subscribe to our weekly newsletter [here](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinexalpha/). #BitfinexAlpha #cryptomarketanalysis #cryptomarketanalysis