Key View

• Uganda's first oil production is expected to start in 2026 at 21,000b/d, increasing to 145,000b/d in 2027 and reaching a peak of around 219,000b/d by 2029 despite delays from infrastructure issues and disputes with international oil firms.
• The completion of the Hoima refinery, projected for 2028, is crucial to Uganda's plan to reduce

Key View

• In our Q1 2025 investment roundup of automotive-related investments in the MENA region, we identified 27 new projects announced or inaugurated during this period, with Morocco receiving the greatest number of projects.
• This quarter we highlight continued interest from Mainland China and Europe-based firms into component manufacturing in

Key View

• The US tariffs and resulting weaker growth prospects in Tunisia's key trading partners prompted us to reduce our forecast for real GDP growth from 1.2% to 1.0% in 2025 and from 2.1% to 1.5% for 2026.
• Lower energy import bill will support the narrowing of the current account deficit to 1.4% of GDP in 2025. This, along with stronger dinar

Key View

• Rising trade tensions with the US will place further pressure on Botswana’s already challenging economic outlook, putting strain on President Duma Boko’s newly elected administration
• Macroeconomic pressures will force the government to adopt austerity measures, despite the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC)’s campaign platform of expanding

The Latest: On May 12 2025, Statistics Mauritius reported its tourist arrivals data for April 2025. The data shows that Mauritius’s tourist arrivals were recorded at 120,157 in April 2025, 13.8% y-o-y higher than the 105,619 arrivals in April 2024. Year-to-date (January-April 2025) arrivals totalled 446,546, 1.2% y-o-y lower than the same period in

Key View

• US President Donald Trump’s forthcoming visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE will strengthen Washington’s security and investment ties with these Gulf states.
• Among major discussion points will be the future governance of Gaza, amid some divergence in the US and Israeli positions towards the conflict.
• Meanwhile, US-Iran nuclear deal

Key View

• We hold a positive outlook for arrivals to South Africa in 2025. We project that arrivals to South Africa will expand from 8.9mn in 2024 to 9.8mn in 2025 with growth accelerating to 10.0% y-o-y.
• We expect a full recovery in arrivals will, however, lag to 2026 in line with recently published high frequency data which supports our view.
• Over

Key View

• While various governments in SSA have expressed their intentions to enhance biofuel production, these efforts have largely been ineffective, with no significant production of biofuels.
• In terms of the factors that we believe will continue to be significant obstacles to biofuel production, we highlight the high prevalence of food insecurity

Key View: Household spending on clothing and footwear across Kenya will post strong and steady growth out to 2029. Despite the prevalence of second-hand markets, formal retail is rapidly expanding, as global brands establish footholds, while e-commerce opportunities are allowing consumers to fulfil demand. Consumer purchasing power is projected to