Emergency Manager's Weekly Report
- Sep 9, 2023
- 7 min read

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #86

Military and Diplomatic Highlights:

The Ukrainian military is reporting the following Russian losses:

o 268,140 Soldiers (Killed or Wounded) o 4,544 Tanks o 8,739 Armored vehicles o 5,789 Artillery o 315 Aircraft o 316 Helicopters o 4,588 Drones o 1,455 Cruise Missiles o 19 Ships

The Ukrainian parliament has approved the appointment of Rustem Umerov as the new Minister of Defense. The President has given him the following priorities:

o Strengthen the ministry’s strategic and coordination functions for the entire defense sector. o Prioritize individual soldiers and cut administrative red tape. o Develop international cooperation. o Ensure Ukraine completes its NATO accession requirements. o Scale up the successes of specific units for all the defense forces.

On September 7th, the U.S. Department of Defense announced a new security assistance package to support Ukraine. The capabilities of this package which totals up to $600 million, includes:

o Equipment to sustain and integrate Ukraine's air defense systems. o Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. o 105mm artillery rounds o Electronic warfare and counter-electronic warfare equipment. o Demolition munitions for obstacle clearing. o Mine clearing equipment o Support and equipment for training, maintenance, and sustainment activities.

The United Kingdom (UK) Ministry of Defense (MoD) provided the following updates:

o Ukrainian Military Advances: ü Elements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have advanced into the multi-layered main Russian defensive line east of the town of Robotyne. Ukrainian dismounted infantry forces are continuing to make gradual tactical advances against Russian positions and attrite Russian forces in the area. ü Ukrainian forces have also maintained pressure on Russian positions to the south of Bakhmut, making gradual gains between Klishchiivka and Adriivka. ü It is highly likely that Russia has redeployed forces from other areas of the frontline to replace degraded units around Robotyne. These redeployments are likely limiting Russia's ability to carry out offensive operations of its own along other areas of the front line. ü The redeployments are also highly likely an indication of pressure on their defensive lines, particularly around Robotyne. o Russian elections in Occupied Areas of Ukraine: ü Russian authorities in the occupied regions of Ukraine plan to hold for the first-time elections on September 8-10 in parallel with those held in the Russian Federation. Voting has already started in Zaporizhzhia and Mariupol. ü Whilst over 1,000 candidates have been identified, there is a lack of qualified, experienced, and willing candidates according to some reports. There is also an absence of independent candidates that are not members of the Kremlin endorsed parties, indicating that these will not be free or fair elections. ü The Ukrainian Centre of National Resistance claims that the occupation administrations have significantly overstated the number of voters on the electoral register. ü Kremlin polls indicate United Russia, the dominant political party in the Russian Federation, is predicted to gain 80% of the vote in the four occupied regions. The United Russia party will likely command most seats to secure the Kremlin's hold and influence over the occupied regions. o Russian Recruitment of Foreign Citizens: ü As of late June 2023, Russia has been appealing to citizens of neighboring countries with recruitment adverts for individuals to fight in Ukraine. ü Online adverts have been observed in Armenia and Kazakhstan offering 495,000 roubles ($5,140) in initial payments and salaries from 190,000 roubles ($1,973). There have been recruitment efforts in Kazakhstan's northern Qostanai region, appealing to the ethnic Russian population. ü Since at least May 2023, Russia has approached central Asian migrants to fight in Ukraine with promises of fast-track citizenship and salaries of up to $4,160. ü Uzbek migrant builders in Mariupol have reportedly had their passports confiscated upon arrival and been coerced to join the Russian military. There are at least six million migrants from Central Asia in Russia, which the Kremlin likely sees as potential recruits. ü Russia likely wishes to avoid further unpopular domestic mobilization measures in the run up to the 2024 Presidential elections. Exploiting foreign nationals allows the Kremlin to acquire additional personnel for its war effort in the face of mounting casualties.

The International Atomic Energy Agency team at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant on September 8th, reportedhearing numerous explosions over the past week, in a possible sign of increased military activity in the region that could also pose a potential threat to nuclear safety and security at the site.

War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights:

The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reported that between September 1-8, 1,006 new war crimes were registered.
The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine also summarized Russian atrocity crimes committed in Ukraine:

o Around 90% of Ukrainian Prisoners of War have endured torture, rape, threats of sexual violence, or other forms of abuse. o Kherson Region: 11 torture chambers have been discovered. o Kharkiv Region: 700 victims of Russian atrocities have been identified. o A total of 156 Russian suspects have been identified and 114 have been indicted and 35 convicted for torture and ill-treatment as war crimes.

The UK MoD as of September 6th, reported that at least 11,000 Ukrainian children have been detained at 43 re-education camps across Russia.

Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights: · As of September 8th, 415 humanitarian organizations are actively providing vital assistance in Ukraine's front-line areas. More than half of these organizations are national non-governmental organizations. · Intensified hostilities in Kharkivska, Zaporizka and Sumska oblasts in recent months forced thousands from their homes, in a country where over 5.1 million people are currently internally displaced: o In Kharkivska Oblast, hundreds of people fled Kupianskyi Raion in August alone. o Attacks have also increased in areas further from the front line during the same period, causing damages to homes, schools, and hospitals and impacting parts of the country where millions of people have sought safety and refuge after being uprooted from front-line communities. o Massive destruction has further impacted essential services already decimated by the war, including access to education, health services and water. · The impact on children by the damage to schools, displacement and traumatic experiences negatively affect their well-being and education: o The Ukrainian government estimates that only 30% of the 3 million school-aged children in Ukraine are in full-time face-to-face learning, while nearly 40% can only attend education online and another 30% are in a hybrid (in-person and online) schooling. · Although attacks impacting hospitals have slightly decreased in 2023, access to health services remains extremely challenging in areas close to the front line, where less than half of the facilities remain operational. · The Kakhovka Dam destruction in June also led to a deteriorated situation in most of southern Ukraine, particularly Khersonska Oblast, disrupting access to water for hundreds of thousands of people and impacting agriculture. · Over 100 security incidents, exacerbated by impediments imposed on aid workers, have hampered aid operations in 2023, particularly in areas under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation: o Attacks impacting distribution points have steadily increased throughout the year, forcing a temporary suspension of aid on many occasions. · The Ukrainian Red Cross is reporting the following: o With support from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescents they continue to aid monthly 100,000 hosts who are helping to shelter 300,000 Internal Displaced Persons (IDPs). o On September 4th, the Lithuanian Red Cross provided 239 generators, 4,000 sleeping kits, and over 220 thousand packs of snacks that have been distributed among IDPs who have taken refuge in the Lviv Oblast. · The EU on September 7th delivered more than 10,000 chemical autoinjectors to Ukraine from their rescEU reserves. · Food Security Update: o On September 4th, the Turkish President attempted to convince Russia to rejoin the Black Sea Grain Initiative: ü Russian however refused to renew its support and instead falsely claimed that terrorism was the reason President Putin scuttled the agreement. o The UK MoD provided a summary of the impact of the Black Sea Grain Initiative: ü During the initiative more than 32 million tonnes of food reached the global market and the Food Price Index fell 23% from its peak in March 2022. ü Developing nations have especially benefited from lower prices as well as from direct imports of grain from Ukraine. ü Russia’s withdrawal has reduced Ukraine’s exports, a clear effort to degrade the Ukrainian economy and its ability to support the war effort. ü The agricultural sector made up 40% of Ukraine’s exports pre-war and remains vital; food exports earned $28 billion in 2021. ü Ukraine has found success using alternative methods like river, rail and road to export its grain; however, it is unlikely that this will match the capacity of the Black Sea export routes. · Emergency Telecommunications Cluster (ETC) Update: o A contract was signed with the Ukraine Broadcasting, Radiocommunications and Television Concern (BRT) on August 14 to install VHF radio equipment on BRT towers. This will expand the VHF radio network coverage for enhanced security communications services in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Luch, and Lviv. The equipment for the first two sites in Dnipro and Kharkiv is ready. o The ETC set up data connectivity services in the new joint UN common premises in Kharkiv from August 2-4 to provide humanitarian responders there with a reliable and secure connection. Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights:

To discredit the Ukrainian’s new Minister of Defense, Russian media denied the well-documented oppression of Crimea’s indigenous people.
The Russian government has launched several new campaigns designed to downplay Ukraine's counteroffensive and spreading disturbing falsehoods about Ukrainian children.

Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights:

As of September 6th, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has verified damage to 287 cultural heritage sites. This includes:

o 120 Religious sites o 27 Museums o 107 Buildings of historical and/or artistic interest o 19 Monuments o 13 Libraries o 1 Archive Sources: