What impact will Trump’s tariffs have on international tourism to the UK?

When Donald Trump introduced tariffs on China in 2018, the value of the dollar dropped and so did inbound visits to the UK.

While global economies are in an immediate state of shock following the US president’s more widespread and severe tariffs announced this week, the UK – and its attractions – may also need to prepare for an unexpected downturn in inbound tourism.

The Visit Britain tourism forecast for 2025 predicts a growth in oversea visits to the UK of 9% on 2023 – this would mean a 1% growth on 2019. Critical to this growth is US tourists. In 2023, holidays from the US to the UK reached 2.6m.

While inbound visits from other countries remain behind pre-Covid levels, this 2.6m represents a record high, an 18% growth on 2019. And based on forecasts, this will increase again for 2025.

The value of the US dollar to the UK pound is generally a good predictor of peaks and troughs in US holidays to the UK. Rapid increases in visits in 2017 matched up with a strong dollar, then a dip in visits in 2018 matched up with a dip in the strength of the dollar. Some commentators attributed that 2018 drop to, you guessed it, Trump’s tariffs on China.

The strong inbound market from the US in 2023 reflects the strong dollar versus the weak pound, peaking in October 2022. With long haul visits booked after up to a year in advance, the UK has been feeling the benefits of this recently – including major visitor attractions and museums in London and Edinburgh.

You can see where this is headed. The question is: with the massive economic shock inevitable from Trump’s international tariffs, how severe and long lasting will the impact be on holiday-making to the UK? We may not know for another year or two.

And it’s not just US visits that will be impacted. The economic shocks across the world may well be more severe than in the UK, with our more modest 10% tariff maybe strengthening the pound compared with for example the Euro (with the EU facing a 20% tariff).

But think longer term than that – think of China and that 34% tariff. Visit Britain were recently predicting that China would represent 7% of all inbound visits to the UK by 2030, compared with 4% in 2024.

This would mean more visits to the UK from China than from Germany or France. Do we need to prepare for a different vision of the future?

The unpredictability of global economics means that many institutions reliant on inbound tourism are rightly looking to the relative predictability of their domestic audiences. While this market remains more unpredictable than in the past, the domestic market is something we stand a better chance of influencing.

This requires organisations to be laser-focused on the audiences they seek to grow, using segmentation as a tool to deliver on an agreed audience development plan. It’s time to review your audience development plan; or for some, to write one.

The challenge is bigger than any one institution. Rising costs, economic uncertainty and shifting visitor trends demand a coordinated response.

The UK Government must step up, but so must we. This is a moment for arts and cultural organisations to come together, share insights, pool resources and build a stronger case for support. Consultancies and agencies have a role to play, helping the sector come together, connect with audiences, shape strategies and advocate for the future we want to see.

Guy Turton is a director at MHM