NSI Experts Weigh In: Looking Ahead to 2024
As we head into 2024, the world remains an unstable, dangerous place. While it might be impossible to predict exactly what will happen in 2024, we can look at trends to predict what might be the most important issues facing the U.S. this year.
NSI experts weigh in to share their opinions on what might be the biggest stories in national security for 2024.
NSI Advisory Board member Dmitri Alperovitch on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
2024 will be the time for building up deterrence against a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan later this decade.
NSI Senior Fellow Andrew Borene on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
2024’s biggest U.S. national security issue will be shifting to multiple-theater deterrence through increased (and credible) allied hard power preparedness in both global hemispheres. Across NATO and among the Quad plus key partners, enhancing collective defense, intelligence interoperability, and warfighting readiness will require consistent budgeting, political will, and a global network of trusted free world allies for implementation. The U.S. alone cannot globally monitor and address multiple converging threats to peace, human rights, and the post World War 2 international order.
NSI Cyber and Tech Center Fellow Megan Brown on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
I am troubled by the direction of federal cybersecurity policy, which is rapidly moving to heavy handed regulation that may undermine collaboration and partnerships that have been vital and working in many sectors. The Administration says it wants to promote harmonization but agencies are all speeding ahead on their own approaches, sometimes without good input from critical infrastructure owners and operators. The impulse seems to be to regulate, demand certifications and disclosure, and then punish companies and CISOs. This will encourage a “check the box” compliance mindset and divert resources from actual security to checklists and audits and reporting. The government is likely to miss out on opportunities for real partnership.
NSI Advisory Board member Amb. Cindy Courville on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
In 2024, the most important strategic issue for U.S. national security is regime security. America’s regime security is under attack on three strategic levels:
Intraparty threats: the rise of a Republican party faction that launched a failed coup d’état on January 6, 2021; the failure of the Republican Party led House of Representatives to fund the government and our national security; and a rogue Republican party who embraces an apartheid-based authoritarian nationalist ideological philosophy whose objective is to limit the freedoms and rights of all American citizens.
Internal threats: the reality of another Republican led coup d’état; the escalation of threats and ongoing violence over the last 3 years by American domestic terrorists designed to undermine the 2024 presidential election, launch of critical threats to our infrastructures and threats to economic security; a politically charged Supreme Court that threatens to govern rather than interpret the law; systematic gerrymandering of political districts; and the systematic attempts to undermine the secrecy of the ballot.
External threats: China, Russia, and Iran posed the greatest transnational threats to the United States strategic security and the global order; the rise of interstate conflict; and the launch of proxy wars in Ukraine, Taiwan, and the greater Middle East.
A stable full American democracy requires a democratic regime that is: bonded by a social contract; limited by the constitution; held in check by an independently elected legislative body; constrained by judicial review; led by military professionals subordinated to civilian decision-makers; and influenced by an open mixed market economy and liberalizing economic structures.
NSI Visiting Fellow Tim Denning on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024. He lists two important sectors of issues.
Free, fair, trusted, and safe elections in the United States.
The improved ability to get innovative technologies in the hands of our warfighters at the speed of innovation.
NSI Fellow Paula Doyle on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
Looking to 2024, the most important issue for U.S. national security will be our ability and willingness to successfully confront — not just sanction and isolate — Russian and Iranian aggression between the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean using diplomatic, economic, and — if necessary — military means. Successful confrontation strategies are especially crucial as Russia doubles down on its unjustified war against Ukraine, as Iran nears a formal declaration as the world’s newest nuclear weapons state, and as the region considers viable two-state solutions.
NSI Senior Fellow Bishop Garrison on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
There is no shortage of complex issues facing our nation, however the continuation and hopeful conclusion of current conflicts across the globe will play a major role in both national security and foreign policy in 2024. More and more, we are witnessing the increase of collateral damage via civilian casualties and infrastructure at alarming rates. The lines have been continuously blurred between the citizenry and combatants since the beginning of the post 9/11 era, and tactics that utilize massive amounts of force and less precision are creating prolonged humanitarian crises. More so, there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight. Whether there is a lack of political will or an earnest inability to reign in harmful or questionable activities, we are left to watch the most vulnerable members of populations falling victim to the cruelty of conflict. Emerging technologies and a lack of diplomatic solutions will only exacerbate the problem. Our ability to act as a leader in these horrific circumstances may define our leadership at this critical moment for generations to come.
NSI Visiting Fellow Preston Golson on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
Domestic social cohesion, or lack thereof, will be one of the most critical issues facing U.S. national security in 2024. With the nation facing another contentious presidential election, foreign adversaries will watch closely for opportunities in the information operations space to further stoke our political polarization and dysfunction.
Intense disagreement is always a necessary part of politics, but can we disagree without further degrading or abandoning trust in civic institutions and processes? Another January 6th type of situation or widespread domestic political unrest would damage the U.S. internally and hamper our global leadership. Our internal vulnerabilities remain open wounds in which adversaries will happily pour dirt.
U.S. leaders can limit vulnerabilities by doing two things. First, politicians can fight fairly and not take the bait of flirting with or resorting to cheap false narratives that whip up unbridled political intensity against their domestic opponents. Second, national security leaders should continue to monitor and disrupt foreign malign influence campaigns. In summation, we should play both defense and offense — avoiding the temptation to give our adversaries social schisms to exploit while making it harder for them to turn our open technology against us.
NSI Visiting Fellow Thomas Grant on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
The most important issue of national security which confronts the United States in 2024 is the degradation of deterrence, reflected in the emboldening of aggressors, including Russia in Ukraine, the Houthis in the Red Sea, Iran across the Middle East, and China in its preparations to subjugate Taiwan.
NSI Visiting Fellow Tommy Joyce on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
The most critical U.S. national security issue since the wind down of major counterterrorism operations in the Middle East has been the “great power” conflict with China and Russia — going into 2024, any efforts by these two nations to coerce and develop a cabal of support should be foremost on policymakers’ minds. This conflict has already cost hundreds of thousands of lives and has the potential to escalate into global conflict.
A more belligerent and formal axis could be on the horizon for China and Russia despite their history of distrust. Top-level synergies between the two give this supposition credence. China is one of the world’s top energy importers, while Russia, one of its top exporters. Russia is battle hardened but lacking in personnel and materiel, while China has one of the largest militaries and is quickly becoming one of the most developed and armed. Moreover, given that both are experiencing economic hardship compounded by looming demographic crises, their leaders could resort to an execution of joint schemes in the near term.
Key questions for watch centers: Will China militarize ports along the One Belt route to Iran and Russia? Will the U.S. maintain investment, deterrence, and power projection necessary for “great power” conflict and reinforce allies and friends? Can the U.S. support Middle East allies, while also alleviating vulnerabilities there through energy production? Will European NATO nations increase ownership of that theater, thereby allowing the U.S. to concentrate more in the Pacific and broadly?
NSI Senior Fellow Andy Keiser on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
Looking into 2024, I think the most important issue for U.S. national security will remain the shifting balance of power between the United States and China. We see this shifting balance impact the war between Russian and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas, where China openly counters U.S. policies with little consequence. We see it in space, cyberspace, trade, diplomacy and every other domain that matters.
Unquestionably, China’s economic, military, and diplomatic strength is advancing more rapidly than many Western policy makers realize. Developments in 2023 like a weak and stale Western military industrial base presenting itself in the support for Ukraine, and with China’s ability to support its allies in Russia and the Middle East with little consequence are alarming and new. The United States must advance economic, defense, and foreign policies more rapidly to turn the ship to face its primary adversary directly before it’s too late.
NSI Faculty member Kenneth Nunnenkamp on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
The single biggest threat to US national security comes from the destructive and growing debt that has been allowed to amass. With over $34 trillion in debt, the ability to service that debt alone impedes the ability to spend what is needed for national defense efforts. Due in large part to the inability to address demand, 2024 will likely see the continued depletion of basic kinetic assets. While we strive to face new challenges such as AI and space-based issues, we fall further behind in the need to maintain and improve stockpiles and basic kinetic weaponry. The administration has delayed or otherwise impacted acquisitions to the point that this is beyond mission critical. Moreover, we will likely see additional regional challenges in theaters in all of the ground, air and sea components, taxing our existing resources and challenging our ability to provide support for key allies who will likely face existential threats.
NSI Cyber and Tech Center Fellow Harold Moss on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
The most important issue in 2024 facing U.S. National Security is that of weaponization of the American people, through social and traditional media. We are experiencing an unprecedented level of anti-democratic sentiment which has infiltrated our population and institutions and will inevitably lead to the weakening of our nation’s foundations.
NSI Visiting Fellow Nicholaus Rohleder on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
As we look towards 2024, the geopolitics of critical minerals will be the most important issue for U.S. national security. These minerals, vital for various sectors, including defense, technology, and renewable energy, are emerging as a cornerstone of strategic power. The most pressing issue in this domain is the U.S.’ heavy reliance on foreign sources, particularly from geopolitically sensitive regions, for these essential materials.
Rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, refractory, and other critical minerals are indispensable for manufacturing advanced electronics, military equipment, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems. The U.S.’ dependency on other countries, notably China, for these minerals poses a significant strategic risk. This vulnerability becomes particularly pronounced in the context of rising geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions.
Furthermore, the global transition towards green technologies is set to dramatically increase the demand for these minerals. This surge presents both an opportunity and a challenge for U.S. national security. On one hand, it offers the chance to advance technological innovation and domestic industry. On the other, it raises the stakes in securing a steady supply of these materials.
In response, the U.S. must adopt a multifaceted strategy. This strategy should encompass bolstering domestic mining and processing capabilities, fostering international partnerships and alliances to diversify supply sources, and investing in research for alternative materials and recycling technologies. Additionally, environmental and ethical considerations in mining practices cannot be overlooked, as these factors play a crucial role in sustainable and socially responsible mineral procurement.
NSI Fellow Norman Roule on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
I believe the most important issue for U.S. National Security in the coming year will be the West’s continued inability to develop a coherent and long-term response to deal with revisionist actors, such as Russia, China, and Iran. Management of this challenge requires both a whole-of-government effort as well as focused multilateral actions. Failure to address this problem will lead to further erosion of the global order and collective security.
NSI Cyber and Tech Center Fellow Vincent Vitkowsky on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
The most important issue for U.S. National Security in 2024 is to achieve a satisfactory resolution of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has caused enormous suffering and destruction, destabilized Europe, made a mockery of international law, and shattered illusions about the international order. Ending the invasion requires, first, replacing the slow roll of armaments with the fastest possible delivery of the weapons Ukraine needs to inflict as much damage as possible on Russian forces. This requires the U.S. Congress to immediately provide the necessary funding. Simultaneously, without waiting for Russia to end its siege, Europe and the U.S. should move promptly to seize the approximately $300 billion dollars in Russian Central Bank Assets that have been frozen. There is ample authority to do this, as Laurence Tribe and others have demonstrated in their authoritative and exhaustive paper for the Renew Democracy Initiative, The Legal, Practical, and Moral Case for Transferring Russian Sovereign Assets to Ukraine. The assets should be used for reconstruction costs, and to impose real penalties on Putin’s aggression. Agreement to release some portion might be an incentive in bringing Putin to the table. And finally, even though the main perpetrators may never be called to account, thousands of other war criminals can and should be prosecuted in courts where jurisdiction is not in dispute. Taken together, these efforts would thwart and punish Putin, discourage similar misadventures, and provide a lifeline for the concept of a rules-based international order.
NSI Fellow Dan Wagner on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
As we advance towards 2024, the national security landscape of the United States is shaped by a complex interplay of external alliances, internal political dynamics, and rapid technological changes in warfare. In this evolving context, the challenges of hyper-partisanship, rising national debt, and revolutionary military technologies such as autonomy, lasers, and hypersonics significantly influence U.S. security strategy.
During the Cold War, the U.S. national security strategy was largely driven by a clear, external threat and a bipartisan consensus in Congress. This unity, as well as attacks on the homeland, also facilitated cohesive actions and strong alliances, particularly in strategically crucial regions like the Middle East. However, the current landscape is markedly different. Hyper-partisanship in Congress now contributes to hindering the funding and execution of a stable, long-term foreign policy, undermining the reliability of U.S. commitments to its allies. This unpredictability is particularly concerning in light of the rising influence of China and the persistent threats in the Middle East.
Moreover, the burgeoning national debt poses a fundamental challenge to the U.S.’s ability to sustain its military capabilities and support global alliances. Fiscal constraints could limit defense spending, impacting the U.S.’s readiness to adapt to new forms of warfare.
The nature of the battlefield itself is undergoing a significant transformation. The integration of autonomous systems in military operations introduces complexities in decision-making and control, raising ethical and strategic dilemmas. These technological shifts also underscore the importance of maintaining technological superiority and cybersecurity. With adversaries developing similar capabilities, the U.S. must ensure that its defense systems can counter these emerging threats while also adhering to international norms and laws of warfare.
As 2024 approaches, the U.S. must navigate these multifaceted challenges by fostering bipartisan cooperation in Congress during what is set to be a highly contentious election year. Likely a task too tall, though necessary in addressing these serious issues the U.S. is faced with. Congress is only one of several key cogs in the wheel, but balancing these internal and external factors is crucial for a comprehensive national security strategy that effectively responds to both traditional and novel threats.
NSI Cyber and Tech Center Visiting Fellow Jeffrey Wells on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
The ongoing discord within the U.S. government regarding extending support to Ukraine heralds a pivotal moment with far-reaching implications for national security and international relations. This schism not only risks undermining the unity and strength of NATO but also potentially emboldens Putin’s aggressive stance in his unprovoked and indefensible war. The indecision casts a shadow over the U.S.’s commitment to global stability, potentially signaling a wavering resolve to allies and adversaries alike. This could inadvertently embolden Putin, lending him unwarranted confidence in pursuing his unjust war. The outcome of this internal U.S. debate is not merely a matter of foreign policy; it is a critical debate that could reshape the geopolitical landscape, challenging the tenets of international law and democratic solidarity.
NSI Cyber and Tech Center Visiting Fellow Eric Wenger on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
Continued conflict in various regions around the world, clearly threaten further instability in 2024. One troubling trend to watch is whether and how malicious cyber attackers leverage this chaotic dynamic to disguise their tactics or their locations to evade detection, arrest, and prosecution.
On the other hand, we are seeing some increasing willingness by the U.S. and its partners and allies to engage in coordinated efforts to disrupt actors who cannot be easily apprehended. The Counter Ransomware Initiative, initiated by the U.S., now counts nearly 50 nations among its members, plus the EU and Interpol. This promising effort seeks to boost the capabilities of participating governments, increase threat sharing, and enable collective responses in coordination with private sector stakeholders, which should increase the costs and decrease the time to detection and remediation for successful attacks.
NSI Advisory Board member Vice Admiral T.J. White (Ret.) on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
U.S., CCP/PRC, and TW. Many may observe “too easy and too obvious.” My observation is that national security establishments should but often confuse the balance of ‘in the moment’ crises against those either existential or strategic. Existential means grave. Strategic means consequential in event or time horizon. At the moment, we are balancing our support for Ukraine as a bolster to NATO and response to Russia with our support of Israel’s security in countering grievous terrorism of Hamas that also negatively impacts Palestinian aspirations for recognition, prosperity, and statehood: necessary, immediate, more easily understood. In contrast, the CCP/PRC, TW, and U.S. dynamic is complicated, possibly existential, and certainly strategic. We would do well to better understand the market dependencies and economic interactions that characterize this dynamic.
There are applicable lessons from assessing U.S. interactions in the Middle East ‘because of oil’ (energy kill chain: production and consumption = economic prosperity and national security) to interactions in the Western Pacific ‘because of rare earth metals, strategic minerals, and computer chips’ (cyber kill chain: software and hardware drives data production and consumption = economic prosperity and national security). The former has both physical and market constraints (oil). The latter is unconstrained, unfolding with a complexity difficult to discern and more difficult to control.
The speed of this data-centric competition is unlocking — at minimum — AI and quantum potential at machine speed instead of man speed. Another lesson: the dangers of this potential being unlocked “behind a wall,” analogous to 1950’s Russia.
NSI Advisory Board member Joe Whitley on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
My biggest threat is the destabilization of America with the massive migration by non-qualified asylum seekers from around the world. More people crossing our borders illegally daily than are born in the U.S. every day. We have no way of slowing the flow of watch list individuals in the population of illegals coming to the U.S.
NSI Faculty member Craig Wiener on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
How to address ongoing U.S. identification of adversarial activities in U.S. critical infrastructure. This is an ongoing publicly available set of threat intelligence and policy issues.
NSI Cyber and Tech Center Visiting Fellow Joseph Williams on what could be the most pressing issues for national security in 2024.
I’m going to guess most national security experts will look to AI as the big disrupter for 2024. I’ll go in a slightly different direction and predict that the federal government and most critical commercial entities will struggle and largely fail to secure their data in 2024, and there will be some perilous outcomes from breaches from hackers getting access to and disseminating or even using that data. As entities outsource and offshore ever-growing parts of their data estates, the threat vectors will also correspondingly increase. Cost pressures from generating, analyzing, transmitting, and storing that data will predictably cannibalize the investments needed to properly secure the data. Throw AI into the mix, where bad actors now have the ability to economically crunch through the data they’ve stolen and associate disparate data into a cohesive whole, and the result will be a data gold mine for adversaries looking for a competitive edge.
