Reserve Bank keeps interest rates on hold in December but leaves door open to a February cut

The Reserve Bank has left interest rates on hold in December for a ninth-straight meeting, but opened the door to a rate cut as soon as February.

The RBA kept its cash rate target at 4.35 per cent after a two-day meeting, a level it has been at since November 2023.

That is despite Australia's economy recording its weakest annual growth rate in decades — outside of the pandemic — in the September quarter and inflation at a more-than-three-year low.

In its post-meeting statement, the RBA board said despite inflation falling from its peak in 2022, it wanted to see further easing.

"While headline inflation has declined substantially and will remain lower for a time, underlying inflation is more indicative of inflation momentum, and it remains too high," the statement read.

This is a change in language from the board's November statement, which said it needed to "remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation" and was "not ruling anything in or out".

Ms Bullock addressed the changes at the bank's post-meeting press conference, and confirmed the removal of the phrases was intentional.

"It is deliberate, and we wanted — the board wanted — to give the message that they have noticed that some of the data that is a bit softer, some of it's not, it's a bit mixed, but some of it is on balance a bit softer than we had expected," she said.

"So the board wanted to convey that their opinion and their views are evolving.

"We're not saying what we might do, but we are acknowledging that there is some softening and our forecast is to see inflation coming back down gradually over the next year.

"As each quarter goes by, and our forecasts look like they are basically in line … that gives us a little bit more confidence in the future.

"We're not saying that we won the battle against inflation yet, but we're saying that we've got a bit more confidence that things are evolving as we think in our forecasts."

RBA leaves door open to February rate cut

The Australian dollar fell in reaction to the news, indicating traders now saw a greater chance of earlier interest rate cuts.

Capital Economics described the statement as "rather dovish", but maintained its call that the first rate cut would not come until May.

"While the board had argued in November that it would need to see more than one good quarterly inflation print to be confident that price pressures are easing, the board has since learned that consumption growth isn't recovering as quickly as it had expected," Capital Economic's head of Asia-Pacific Marcel Thieliant said.

"With the unemployment rate still below the RBA's estimate of full employment, we suspect that the Bank will want to see a further loosening of the labour market before cutting interest rates."

The board's statement noted weak growth in the September quarter, with the economy expanding by just 0.8 per cent over the past year.

"Past declines in real disposable income and the ongoing effect of restrictive financial conditions continued to weigh on household consumption spending, particularly on discretionary items," it read.

"Taking account of recent data, the board's assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and is working as anticipated.

However, Ms Bullock declined to give any future indication about when the bank may lower the cash rate.

"I honestly don't know if we're going to be cutting in February," she said.

"We're going to be looking at the data and be data-driven."

The RBA will hold its first meeting for 2025 on February 17 and 18.