New Hampshire US Senate Survey Toplines 072114
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Scott Brown is within 5 points of defeating Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire's Senate race according to a new poll. The poll finds that the political environment favors Republicans with 65% saying the country is on the wrong track and only 36% approving of President Obama's job performance. Additionally, midterm election demographics typically benefit Republicans as turnout among key Democratic constituencies like women, young voters, and Democrats declines from presidential years. As a result of these factors, Scott Brown has a respectable chance to defeat Jeanne Shaheen despite currently trailing her by 5 points in the poll.
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New Hampshire US Senate Survey Toplines 072114
- 1. July 23, 2014 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: JOHN DIEZ, 225-‐485-‐0405, jdiez@magellanbr.com Aided by a dismal political environment, Scott Brown is within 5 points of defeating Jeanne Shaheen. Baton Rouge, LA – Magellan Strategies BR released the survey results today of an automated survey of 1,618 likely New Hampshire voters. The survey was conducted July 16-‐17. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 2.43%. The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. Summary Findings Consistent with other surveys, the overall political environment in New Hampshire favors Republicans. • Only 35% of likely voters think things in the country are headed in the right direction, while 65% think things are on the wrong track. • President Obama’s job approval is an abysmal 36%, while a strong majority (56%) disapproves of the job he is doing. A traditional demographic shift in previous mid-‐term elections benefits Republican candidates. • In the past two presidential elections, female voters have enjoyed a 6 point advantage over men relative to total composition of the electorate. During the past two mid-‐term elections, the female advantage has been only 2 points. • Young voters (18-‐34) represented 28% and 22% of the electorate in 2012 and 2008, respectively. However, during the past two mid-‐terms, young voters have fluctuated between 10% and 14%. • Mid-‐term elections have also historically produced a Republican advantage relative to party composition of the electorate. During the last two presidential elections, the Republican advantage over Democrats on average was only 3.8 points. However, during the last two mid-‐terms, the Republican advantage averaged 8.3 points.
- 2. Magellan ID#: NHSTW-‐0714-‐A Page 2 of 6 Field Dates: 7/16/14 -‐ 7/17/14, MOE +/-‐2.43%, 1,618n Magellan Strategies | 12491 Plantation Creek Drive | Geismar, LA 70734 225-‐622-‐6249 | MagellanStrategies.com As a result of an abysmal political environment and mid-‐term election demographics, Scott Brown is in a respectable position to defeat Jeanne Shaheen. • Currently, Scott Brown is only down by 5 points (41% Scott Brown/46% Jeanne Shaheen) with 13% undecided. • Among undecided voters, President Obama’s job approval is only 10% while 72% disapprove. • Among undecided voters, only 14% think things in the country are going in the right direction while 86% think things are on the wrong track. • Lastly, Brown still has room to grow among undecided voters. Fifty-‐three percent of undecided voters have yet to form an opinion of him. Survey Methodology: The survey results have been weighted to better reflect the likely demographic characteristics of previous mid-‐term elections. Based on an analysis of the last four election cycles, mid-‐term election year demographics tend to be more favorable to Republican candidates. While presidential election year demographics are generally more favorable to Democratic candidates. +4 +11 +3 SURVEY 2012 GEN 2010 GEN 2008 GEN 2006 GEN 35% 31% 39% 32% 38% 30% 27% 28% 29% 32% 36% 42% 34% 39% 30% PARTY REGISTRATION GOP DEM IND +6 GOP Advantage
- 3. Magellan ID#: NHSTW-‐0714-‐A Page 3 of 6 Field Dates: 7/16/14 -‐ 7/17/14, MOE +/-‐2.43%, 1,618n Magellan Strategies | 12491 Plantation Creek Drive | Geismar, LA 70734 225-‐622-‐6249 | MagellanStrategies.com SURVEY 2012 GEN 2010 GEN 2008 GEN 2006 GEN 13% 28% 14% 22% 10% 14% 12% 14% 18% 18% 25% 20% 24% 24% 27% 24% 19% 24% 19% 23% 23% 20% 24% 17% 21% AGE 18-‐34 35-‐44 45-‐54 55-‐64 65+ SURVEY 2012 GEN 2010 GEN 2008 GEN 2006 GEN 51% 53% 51% 53% 51% 49% 47% 49% 47% 49% GENDER FEMALE MALE Female Advantage +6 +2 +6 +2 Age 18-‐34 28% 14% 22% 10%
- 4. Magellan ID#: NHSTW-‐0714-‐A Page 4 of 6 Field Dates: 7/16/14 -‐ 7/17/14, MOE +/-‐2.43%, 1,618n Magellan Strategies | 12491 Plantation Creek Drive | Geismar, LA 70734 225-‐622-‐6249 | MagellanStrategies.com MAGELLAN ID#:NHSTW-‐0714-‐A Sample Size=1,618n;+/-‐2.43% Field Date: 07/16-‐17/14 Hello, this is ________________ calling on behalf of Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. We’re conducting a quick survey with people in NEW HAMPSHIRE this evening and would like to ask you a few questions on a confidential basis. Q 1. How likely are you to vote in the up-‐coming elections for Governor and US Senate? EXTREMELY LIKELY TO VOTE 85.9% VERY LIKELY TO VOTE 9.2% SOMEWHAT LIKELY TO VOTE 5.0% Q 2. Would you say things in country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track? RIGHT DIRECTION 35.1% WRONG TRACK 64.9% Q 3. If the election for US Senate were being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Republican and the other was a Democrat, for whom would you vote? REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 42.1% DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE 36.3% UNDECIDED 21.6% Thinking now about people active in government… Q 4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Brown? FAVORABLE 34.5% UNFAVORABLE 43.0% HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION 20.0% NEVER HEARD OF 2.5%
- 5. Magellan ID#: NHSTW-‐0714-‐A Page 5 of 6 Field Dates: 7/16/14 -‐ 7/17/14, MOE +/-‐2.43%, 1,618n Magellan Strategies | 12491 Plantation Creek Drive | Geismar, LA 70734 225-‐622-‐6249 | MagellanStrategies.com Thinking now about people active in government… Q 5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeanne Shaheen? FAVORABLE 46.9% UNFAVORABLE 43.0% HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION 9.0% NEVER HEARD OF 1.1% Q 6. And do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President? APPROVE 36.1% DISAPPROVE 56.2% UNDECIDED 7.6% Thinking now about the 2014 election for US Senate... Q 7-‐9. If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Scott Brown, Republican, or Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat? SCOTT BROWN 41.1% JEANNE SHAHEEN 46.0% UNDECIDED 12.9% DEFINITELY BROWN 25.9% PROBABLY BROWN 15.2% PROBABLY SHAHEEN 10.5% DEFINITELY SHAHEEN 35.5% Q 10. These last few questions are for statistical purposes only. Are you a male or female? MALE 49.0% FEMALE 51.0%
- 6. Magellan ID#: NHSTW-‐0714-‐A Page 6 of 6 Field Dates: 7/16/14 -‐ 7/17/14, MOE +/-‐2.43%, 1,618n Magellan Strategies | 12491 Plantation Creek Drive | Geismar, LA 70734 225-‐622-‐6249 | MagellanStrategies.com Q 11-‐13.Regardless of how you feel today, with which party are you registered to vote? REPUBLICAN 34.6% DEMOCRAT 29.9% INDEPENDENT OR OTHER 35.5% STR REPUBLICAN 23.7% NSS REPUBLICAN 10.9% NSS DEMOCRATIC 9.8% STR DEMOCRAT 20.1% Q 14. Which of the following age group applies to you? 18-‐34 13.0% 35-‐44 14.4% 45-‐54 25.1% 55-‐64 24.3% 65 PLUS 23.2%