Magellan Strategies EPA Regulation Survey Press Release 061214
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Magellan Strategies EPA Regulation Survey Press Release 061214
- 1. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE JUNE 12, 2014 CONTACT: DAVID FLAHERTY 303-861-8585 Support for Proposed EPA Emission Regulation Puts Candidates and Incumbents at Risk in Eight Battleground States Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released eight statewide surveys measuring voter opinion of the newly proposed EPA carbon emissions regulation, as well as how information about the proposal impacts voter opinion. The findings are based on automated surveys of likely 2014 general election voters in Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana and North Carolina. The surveys were fielded from June 4th to June 8th , and the margin of error for the surveys range from +/- 3.45% to 3.65% at the 95% confidence level. The surveys measured voter opinion of the newly proposed EPA carbon emissions regulation, as well as how information about the proposal impacts voter opinion. Project Summary The eight states for this research project were chosen for two reasons. First, they are all coal states (i.e. significant producers and/or consumers); voters within these states are much more sensitive to the potential economic impacts of EPA regulations than voters in other states. These voters have a greater concern for and understanding of the impacts within their state and local economies than typically found among adults polled in nationwide surveys. The second reason these eight states were chosen is they all have competitive US Senate elections this year, where the proposed EPA regulation is expected to be an issue this election cycle. The relevant question for political observers is to what extent the proposed EPA regulation helps or harms a US Senate candidate. These surveys attempt to shed some light on that question. Key Findings: Ø Initial impressions of the EPA proposal find an average of 37.3% of likely voters supporting the proposal, 47.1% opposing the proposal and 15.6% of voters not having an opinion about the proposal.
- 2. Magellan Strategies EPA Carbon Emissions Regulation Survey Project Release, June 12, 2014 Magellan Strategies 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 2 Ø An average of 55.2% of respondents are more likely to oppose a candidate for the US Senate who supports the new emission regulation, 31.4% are more likely to support a candidate who supports the regulation, and 13.4% are unsure or do not have an opinion after hearing information about the EPA proposal. Ø When voters were informed of EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy’s quote that there will be a “short term hit” to consumers, an average of 59.1% of respondents were more likely to oppose the proposal, 17.9% were more likely to support it, and 20.2% responded it made no difference in their decision to support or oppose the proposal. Ø When voters are informed that the EPA proposal would require 50 states to meet their carbon emission target limits through state-based cap and trade, tax and regulatory programs, an average of 48.8% of respondents are more likely to oppose the proposal, 22.2% are more likely to support it, and 24.0% responded that it made no difference in their decision to support or oppose the proposal. Ø When voters are informed “the US Chamber of Commerce, a pro-business organization” found that a similar carbon emissions proposal would result in the loss of 224,000 jobs each year through 2030, and cost $50 billion to the economy, an average of 62.2% of respondents are more likely to oppose the proposal, 13.2% are more likely to support it, and the information made no difference to 21.1% of respondents. Ø An average of 76% of voters believe it is more important for President Obama to be focusing his time and attention on creating jobs and growing the economy than creating a new regulation for power plants to combat climate change. Survey Conclusions Although there are differences in voter opinion about the EPA regulatory proposal on a state-by-state basis, it is clear that any candidate who supports the proposal is taking a risk among likely 2014 election voters. The introduction of this carbon emission regulation by the Obama Administration does not make this election cycle any easier for the Democrat candidates and incumbents in these eight states, and in some cases makes it more difficult for them. Download Individual State Survey Toplines and Crosstabs The survey project executive summary is included with this document. To download and review the individual state survey topline and crosstabs please visit www.MagellanStrategies.com and click on the blog section of our website. The EPA Regulation blog post contains the survey data for each state.
- 3. Magellan Strategies EPA Carbon Emissions Regulation Survey Project Release, June 12, 2014 Magellan Strategies 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 3 Survey Commissioned By The National Mining Association, the national trade group representing the US mining industry, commissioned this survey research project. Survey Methodology The surveys for this research project were conducted using automated voice recorded technology. The sample for each state was randomly drawn from a voter file. The results were weighted based upon past voting demographics of the non- Presidential voting population for each state. Any questions regarding the methodology of this survey should be directed to David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com or 303-861-8585. About Magellan Strategies Magellan Strategies is a full-service survey research firm offering quantitative, qualitative, and predictive data modeling services to Republican candidates, campaigns and trade associations.