Don't Be So Sure the Big Tech Breakthroughs Are Behind Us

Vox tech writer Timothy B. Lee used to be one of the most ardent techno-optimists. But he’s had a bit of a conversion, of late, and is now on the side of those who think tech progress is slowing. Maybe it was the economist Robert Gordon who convinced him, or maybe years of observing the tech world changed his mind. In any case, Lee now broadly suggests that the inventions of tomorrow won’t be as world-changing as those of yesteryear. The idea that tech will remake our lives, he writes:

Lee illustrates his argument with a chart of prices for various goods and services in the U.S. economy during the past four decades. As the chart below shows, manufactured goods have mostly fallen in price, while college and health care have soared. He reasons that these are difficult industries for technology to disrupt, since they rely so much on human-to-human interaction.