Poll: Latino voters more engaged this year
New national polling from an immigration reform group released on Monday showed Latino voters more engaged in this election than in 2012.
America’s Voice released the poll numbers conducted by Latino Decisions which showed Trump with a slight increase in support among Hispanic voters nationwide. The study surveyed 657 Latino registered voters from June 29 through July 5 with 25 percent online and 75 percent phone respondents. It has a margin of error of 3.8 percent.
The numbers showed 54 percent of those polled were more enthusiastic about the 2016 election than 2012 while 79 percent said they followed news related to the election either several times a week or every day. Driving that enthusiasm is the rhetoric surrounding immigration, which could spell problems not only for Trump, but down-ballot Republicans, said Sylvia Manzano, principal at Latino Decisions.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is still very unpopular with Hispanic voters according to the results, but gained some ground since April.
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Trump held total unfavorable ratings nationally of 78 percent compared with 17 percent favorable. This is a slight increase from an April poll by the same group that showed 87 percent total unfavorable ratings against nine percent favorable.
The slight increase was likely because Texas Sen. Ted Cruz was still in the race in April, Manzano said.
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton held fairly even with the April poll with 63 percent favorable and 31 percent unfavorable in the latest study compared with 61 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable in April.
Clinton still led by more than 60 points when voters were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, with 73 percent saying Clinton and 16 percent saying Trump. The April poll showed similar numbers with 76 percent saying Clinton and 11 percent saying Trump. Election analysts have predicted Republicans need upwards of 40 percent of the Hispanic vote to take the White House.
Trump has largely campaigned on an immigration and national security platform, including saying he would build a wall between the United States-Mexican border and deport all undocumented immigrants in the country, which the polling group said was contributing to his still dismal performance with Hispanics. 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney had the support of 26 percent of Hispanics at around the same time in the 2012 election, Manzano said.
David Damore, senior analyst for Latino Decisions and a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said Trump’s numbers show a twofold problem.
“The first is that the margin is going to be worse for him than it was for Romney,” said Damore, a registered nonpartisan. “The second problem is he probably helps make the Latino electorate a little bit bigger than it was just because of the growing demography. We’ve seen that in more enthusiasm voting against Trump, that kind of stuff.”
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On the whole, immigration was the most important issue Hispanics said they were facing. They overwhelmingly expressed support for Democratic President Barack Obama’s executive actions on immigration, which were recently remanded to a lower court by a 4-4 decisions at the Supreme Court.
Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they knew someone who was an undocumented immigrant.
“When the Hispanic electorate is listening to candidates or dealing with new policy that is dealing with undocumented immigrants it’s not just a policy of theory,” Manzano said. “These are people that they know. It could be people in their household or their family members or people that they work with or their friends. This is not an abstract issue for them. The Latino community and the undocumented community are quite intertwined.”
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Respondents also said the Supreme Court itself and not just the immigration decision is a pivotal issue, with 67 percent wanting the Senate to hold hearings on Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland. Republicans have said they will not hold hearings until after the election.
Eighty-two percent of respondents said the Supreme Court was either very or somewhat important in the upcoming election, with 63 percent saying the country would be better off if Clinton made future nominations and 70 percent saying the country would be worse off if Trump picked the future nominees.
Seventeen percent of respondents said anti-Latino and immigrant discrimination and race relations were one of the most important issues, surpassing health care, education reform and terrorism.
“In the focus groups we’ve done on some other projects that’s really come through,” Damore said. “People feel a more hostile environment this time around than they have in the past.”
Republicans overwhelmingly opposed Obama’s executive actions, which the polling said was more likely to make Hispanics support Democrats. Democrats held a strong lead on Republicans in terms of congressional election support from Latinos. Seventy-one percent said they were more likely to vote Democratic compared with 19 percent Republican in U.S. Senate elections while 72 percent said they were more likely to vote Democratic compared with 16 percent Republican in U.S. House races.
Fifty-four percent said the Democratic Party truly cared about them compared with 13 percent on the Republican Party side.
See below for the full poll. For crosstabs, click here.