Editor’s note: This is the final installment of a five-part series breaking down the most pressing questions facing the Vikings this season. (Last week: Who wins the team’s primary position battles in training camp?)
The Vikings entered last season with Super Bowl aspirations that quickly evaporated, as the defense struggled early in the campaign and the offense struggled late. But the roster that returns for the 2019 season is very similar to the unit many thought had Super Bowl potential only a year ago.
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That’s one of the aspects that makes this season a fascinating one for the Vikings. It seems this season could easily go one of two drastically different ways. The offense could take a big step forward with Gary Kubiak entering the fold, and the defense could dominate like it did in 2017 to make this one of the league’s best teams. Or the offensive-line issues could persist, the running-game struggles could return and Mike Zimmer’s aging defense could take a step back as the team misses the playoffs for a second straight year.
With that in mind, we thought it would be a fun exercise to examine what we think the best- and worst-case scenarios could be for the Vikings in 2019.
Best-case scenario
Chad Graff: It’s Feb. 3, 2020, and for the first time in franchise history, Vikings officials are drawing up a parade route to celebrate the Super Bowl won the previous night. It starts at the capitol in St. Paul and ends outside U.S. Bank Stadium, which hosted a playoff game for the first time since the Minneapolis Miracle.
The Vikings earned a first-round bye in the playoffs because of a Zimmer-led defense that was the league’s No. 1-ranked unit. Danielle Hunter blossomed into one of the league’s premier pass-rushers, notching 16 sacks in 16 games, while Everson Griffen had a bounce-back season opposite him. In the secondary, Zimmer’s insistence on drafting cornerbacks paid off, as Mike Hughes returned in impressive fashion and Mackensie Alexander turned into one of the league’s best nickel corners. As promised, Zimmer turned Xavier Rhodes back into the cornerback who was arguably the best in the NFL in 2017, and Trae Waynes had such a strong season that he set himself up for a big contract from another team in the offseason. And, of course, Harrison Smith continued to do Harrison Smith things. Anthony Barr’s decision to remain with the Vikings was a good one, as he became the pass-rusher the Jets envisioned when they tried to sign him, recording eight sacks — double his previous career high.
Perhaps most impressive, though, was the way the offense took to Kubiak’s teachings. More play-action brought out Kirk Cousins’ best and put to rest questions over whether the Vikings should have paid him $28 million per season. He didn’t single-handedly win games for the Vikings, but he shined with more time to throw from an improved offensive line while opposing defenses were worried about the team’s running game.
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Dalvin Cook put together his first fully healthy season and was the running back the Vikings envisioned when they drafted him in the second round in 2017, topping 1,200 rushing yards in Kubiak’s zone scheme.
And in a rare turn of events, there was no drama from the Vikings’ kicker, as Dan Bailey performed like the player who made 94 percent of his field goals in 2015.
Arif Hasan: A truly best-case scenario should remind Vikings fans of what 1969 or 1975 would look like if truly complete. With the No. 1 offense and defense in the NFL, both teams were slated for NFL immortality before missteps in the postseason. An ideal best-case scenario indulges catharsis and narrative, not just performance — the Vikings would, despite having the No. 1 seed locked up, keep the Packers out of the playoffs with a Week 16 win over their border rivals and a Week 17 win over the Chicago Bears for good measure.
After that, they take on the lingering bitterness foisted upon them by the NFC East, winning in a last-minute controversial call against the Dallas Cowboys — perhaps noting how appropriate it is that Adam Thielen is remarkable at pushing off without getting called for offensive pass interference — before drumming out the Philadelphia Eagles in a game that was never close.
And while Vikings fans have no lingering resentment over Super Bowl IV, taking down Patrick Mahomes and crew in the Super Bowl in a rematch of what is sure to be an electric Week 9 showdown would make for easy headline writing. And Bailey makes all the kicks, in part because of flawless long-snapping from Austin Cutting.
Accomplishing that might require all of those individually phenomenal performances, but what might make those performances interesting is the kind of tactical innovation that could cause nightmares for the rest of the league. If the Vikings truly can deploy a dime defense to exploit their cornerback depth and create a formless front to threaten Barr, Griffen and Hunter as rushers without sacrificing run support, they could cement Zimmer’s place in strategic history in a way that has been hinted at for the past few years but never actualized.
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Offensively, coordinator Kevin Stefanski would build upon the principles that Kubiak brings to the table, with a bootleg passing offense complementing a zone scheme that has the Vikings offensive line flying to the sidelines to create space for Cook and the stable of backs behind him. But Stefanski’s imprint is found in the passing game, where explosive passing plays come from designs building around the talent level and IQ of their top two receivers, as well as the versatility that the two tight ends provide. Each personnel grouping can just as easily threaten a heavy run with bodies at the point of attack or a spread-out offense, with Cousins adjusting the offense at the line to account for what the defense thinks it’ll do. Irv Smith can play fullback on one play and inline tight end on another, operate as a jet-sweep threat on a third play and drive deep downfield on a fourth. Mike Boone or Ameer Abdullah can split out wide and the offense gets to be explosive, making good on the offseason buzzwords that have preceded the season.
Worst-case scenario
Chad: Turns out drafting a center and signing only one other new starter wasn’t the solution the Vikings offensive line needed. They were one of the NFL’s worst, which completely disrupted the offense Kubiak tried to bring. The running game was stagnant and produced little despite Zimmer’s insistence that the team continue to rely on it. Cousins was under constant pressure and struggled each game. He still finished with 4,000 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, prompting another cycle of debate about his ability that will never end.
The defense was more problematic. Despite all the resources there, an aging group caught up to Zimmer, who wasn’t able to fix his beloved defense. Griffen wasn’t able to bounce back, Linval Joseph’s age showed and Rhodes wasn’t able to stay healthy and feuded with the head coach who proclaimed he’d fix him.
Most problematic, the Vikings were leapfrogged in the division by a Bears team that was again very good and a Packers team led by a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers. They missed the playoffs, yielding questions about how much longer Zimmer and Rick Spielman should remain at the helm.
Oh, and in a cruel turn of events, they lost at home to the Chicago Bears in Week 17 via a missed field goal that somehow one-upped their division rivals by doinking off the goalposts three times.
Arif: That sounds pretty bad, but truly stressful offseasons are built out of uncertainty and loss, not just loss itself. Injury looms over the Vikings like a specter and, in a worst-case scenario, takes away the starting quarterback before the season starts — treating fans to the recurring curse of the franchise and opening up debate about whether or not the Vikings should draft a quarterback or stick with Cousins, who they have no new information about.
That tension sticks all the way up to the ownership, who knows Zimmer has been dealt bad hand after bad hand and navigated those draws (mostly) beautifully. But with the franchise seemingly in the same place as it was in 2014 when Zimmer took over, it never commits to an answer about his fate as the season winds down.
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Worse, the injury was a product of a bad hit given up by the offensive line in the preseason, presaging the performance to come: Riley Reiff falls off, while Pat Elflein and Josh Kline fail to bounce back from their poor 2018 showings and youngsters Brian O’Neill and Garrett Bradbury prove difficult to evaluate in this environment.
The defense falls off, but what’s worse is that all the signs were there. Barr repeats his lackluster 2016 season, while Eric Kendricks repeats last year’s performance. Griffen gets replaced partway through the season — first by Stephen Weatherly, then by Tashawn Bower, but neither showcase more than rotational ability at the position. Injuries pile up for a fading Rhodes, while Hughes never recovers in time to play. Alexander looks more like his sophomore-year self, and Waynes stands as a lone bright spot, watching Smith age out and Anthony Harris look like just a midseason blip from 2018. With only Waynes and Hunter playing at a high level, the Vikings find themselves figuring out whether it’s better to blow up the team and trade Hunter for assets or stick it out with Spielman and Zimmer, who have done much more good than bad.
The unprecedented triple-doink was a product of a poor snap by Austin Cutting. Kevin McDermott, now on the Bears sideline in blue and orange, watches in sympathetic horror.
(Top photo of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen: David Berding / Getty Images)