Political Islam on the rebound in Indonesia

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This was published 9 years ago

Political Islam on the rebound in Indonesia

By Greg Fealy
Updated

There were two main surprises in the April 9 legislative election in Indonesia.The first was the poorer-than-expected performance of Megawati Sukarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle. The second was the higher-than-predicted vote for Islamic parties.

In 2009, the total vote for Islamic parties was 29 per cent, the lowest recorded. All main pollsters had forecast an even worse result for this year's election, with the Islamic party-vote ranging from about 15 to 25 per cent.

A Muslim woman casts her ballot at a polling station in a Catholic hospital in Yogyakarta.

A Muslim woman casts her ballot at a polling station in a Catholic hospital in Yogyakarta.

No survey had Islamic parties improving on their overall performance of five years ago. But the quick-count results from 9 April showed the five Islamic parties contesting the election had gained about 31 to 32 per cent of the national vote.

Most of the polls showed falling support for four of the five parties, with only the National Awakening Party expected to increase its vote.

The quick-count figures showed that, in fact, four of the five parties lifted their vote, and the Prosperous Justice Party, which was expected to suffer the biggest drop of all – about 3 to 5 per cent – ended up with just a 1 per cent decline.

So what accounts for this unexpectedly good showing?

To begin with, there is little to suggest it was due to a rise in ideological Islam. None of the four Islamic parties campaigned using Islamic concepts or doctrines.

Rather, their appeals to their core constituencies emphasised practical benefits. For example, the National Awakening Party and the United Development Party, both of which have strong bases in the Islamic education system, promised to channel greater resources to Islamic schools and ulama (Islamic scholars).

Perhaps more significantly, when these parties were making their pitches to national audiences, their messages were invariably inclusive and universalistic, conveyed with the intention of having the broadest possible appeal in the electorate.

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Also, none of these four parties campaigned on sharia (Islamic law) agendas. The only party that did so was the Crescent-Star Party, which gained only about 1.5 per cent of the vote.

The answer to why Islamic parties improved their position in this election lies not in some collective, across-the-board trend but rather in the electoral strategies and campaigning of individual parties.

For example, the best performance of any Islamic party was recorded by the National Awakening Party, which gained a quick count vote of about 9 per cent, up from 4.9 per cent in 2009.

At least four factors account for its improved showing, the most important of these being the party’s closeness to Nahdlatul Ulama, Indonesia’s largest Muslim organisation, which facilitated the National Awakening Party's formation in 1998.

In the 2004 and 2009 elections, relations between Nahdlatul Ulama and Awakening were frosty. But a concerted campaign by Awakeningchairman Muhaimin Iskandar in the past few years had presented the party as unequivocally serving the interests of Nahdlatul Ulama. The overall effect was to create in the minds of many Nahdlatul Ulama members that Awakening was ‘their’ party and bring many disaffected followers back into the fold.

Among the other three main Islamic parties, the National Mandate Party's vote of about 7.5 per cent surprised both pundits and party leaders. But, it campaigned well and had a well-funded program of advertisements. The party also mobilised its candidates and cadre to telling effect. Surveys showed higher voter recognition of its campaign than for other Islamic parties.

The Prosperous Justice Party's 6.9 per cent quick-count figure was the least anticipated of all Islamic party results after several years of embarrassing corruption and morality scandals in the party, the most damaging of which saw its president jailed for 16 years. The corrupt president was quickly replaced by indefatigable secretary-general, Anis Matta, who immediately began touring the country reaching out to Muslim voters.

PPP, was the fourth-ranked Islamic party, receiving about 6.5 per cent in the post-election quick-count tallies. Few had expected it to do so well, particularly as the party has the least credible leadership of any Islamic party. It had success with the slogan that it was the "Great House of the Islamic Community" appealing to a sense it accommodated all groups in Indonesia’s diverse Muslim society.

Second, PPP made extensive use of the patronage through its two cabinet members which poured vast sums into the Islamic education and social service system, ensuring the support of thousands of grateful local Islamic scholars and leaders.

Although PPP avoided campaigning on Islamist questions such as sharia and banning of "deviant" sects such as the Shia and Ahmadiyah, it was nonetheless seen in many conservative parts of the electorate as the party that best captured their aspirations.

So, Islamic parties may not be in terminal decline as many have predicted and they are likely to have a little more clout in the next government than in the previous one.

This election result does not show a resurgence of political Islam but it does indicate its resilience and ability to adapt to changing attitudes.

The four Islamic parties that have gained parliamentary seats have done so partly because they have moved closer to the centre of the political spectrum, away from a doctrinaire Islamic position. They are increasingly pragmatic, in keeping with the mood of the electorate.

Associate Professor Greg Fealy is head of the department of political and social change at the Australian National University’s College of Asia and the Pacific.

This article forms part of New Mandala’s coverage of the Indonesian elections.

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