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Industry Landscape IHIF 2014

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The Industry Landscape Global Trends Elizabeth Winkle Managing Director, STR Global IHIF Berlin 3 March 2014 www.strglobal.com
• Global Overview • Top Trends to Watch for Europe • Outlook
RevPAR growth in most regions YE 2013, % change USD, Europe (€) + 5.3% + 1.7% € + 4.7% - 4.1%
Demand growth outpaced supply growth % change YE 2013 10% Supply Demand 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% North America Central- South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia & Oceania
Back to Peak? Revenue generator index on YE 2008 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 2007 2008 2009 Europe € 2010 2011 USA $ 2012 2013
Europe Demand Accelerating? 12 MMA % change 8% USA 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Europe
Demand, demand and more demand www.strglobal.com
Demand growth for 46/49 months; since Dec ‘09 Monthly Demand % change 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13
Limited Supply Growth; Strong Demand Growth 12 MMA Nov ‘10 +6.8% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Supply % Chg Demand % Chg Dec ‘13 +3.3% 2010 2011 2012 2013
Similar Supply/Demand Trends by Class YE 2013 Supply % Chg 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Demand % Chg Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Economy Midscale
Rate: the only way is Up? www.strglobal.com
Incongruence between Demand and ADR performance 12MMA Jan ‘11 5.4% 6% May ‘11 5.8% Dec ‘13 2.4% 3% 0% Dec ‘13 -1.0% -3% -6% Occ % Chg -9% -12% 2010 2011 2012 2013 ADR % Chg
Negative ADR limiting RevPAR 12MMA May ‘11 10.9% 12% 8% Dec ‘13 1.7% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% -16% 2010 2011 2012 RevPAR % Chg 2013
Occ growth; ADR declines across all classes Actual Occ & ADR & YOY % change Occupancy 72% ADR 270 € 0.0% +4.1% 70% 220 € 68% +2.4% 66% 170 € +1.5% +2.5% 120 € 64% +2.0% +2.2% -1.5% 70 € -0.4% 62% -1.6% -0.4% -1.9% 60% 20 € Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Occ 13 Upper Midscale ADR 13 Midscale Economy
Southern Europe Signs of Recovery YE 2013 Northern Europe Occ 73% +3.4% ADR € 96 -3.5% RevPAR € 70 -0.2% Western Europe Eastern Europe Occ 67% +1.1% Occ 61% +3.0% ADR € 108 +0.3% ADR € 85 -4.0% €72 +1.4% RevPAR € 52 -1.0% RevPAR Southern Europe Occ 64% +2.2% ADR € 104 +2.2% RevPAR € 66 +4.4%
Predominantly domestic demand Source: Quartz.com, European Commission
Limited Pipeline www.strglobal.com
Pipeline growth consistent with LTA +143k rooms +3% 2014-2016 6% 21% 15% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale 11% Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated 23% 6% 18%
UK, Russia, Germany have largest pipelines Top 10 by rooms 11% 10% 21% 4% 4% 12% 38% 4% 3% 3% 2%
Outlook www.strglobal.com
Demand & GDP in step, GDP forecast more positive (GDP Source: Oxford Economics) 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Demand 2010 2011 GDP 2012 2013 2014f 2015f
2013 Actual Markets telling an Occupancy Story
2014 Forecast: Time for rate growth Feb 2014 edition – local currency
Summary • Demand: Remains strong – increasing international arrivals; EU economic improvements • ADR: No real rate recovery, opportunities exist • Supply: Limited growth in most markets • Forecast: ADR growth across most markets
Elizabeth Winkle STR Global +44 (0)207 922 1930 info@strglobal.com www.strglobal.com You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.

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Industry Landscape IHIF 2014

  • 1. The Industry Landscape Global Trends Elizabeth Winkle Managing Director, STR Global IHIF Berlin 3 March 2014 www.strglobal.com
  • 2. • Global Overview • Top Trends to Watch for Europe • Outlook
  • 3. RevPAR growth in most regions YE 2013, % change USD, Europe (€) + 5.3% + 1.7% € + 4.7% - 4.1%
  • 4. Demand growth outpaced supply growth % change YE 2013 10% Supply Demand 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% North America Central- South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia & Oceania
  • 5. Back to Peak? Revenue generator index on YE 2008 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 2007 2008 2009 Europe € 2010 2011 USA $ 2012 2013
  • 6. Europe Demand Accelerating? 12 MMA % change 8% USA 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Europe
  • 7. Demand, demand and more demand www.strglobal.com
  • 8. Demand growth for 46/49 months; since Dec ‘09 Monthly Demand % change 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13
  • 9. Limited Supply Growth; Strong Demand Growth 12 MMA Nov ‘10 +6.8% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Supply % Chg Demand % Chg Dec ‘13 +3.3% 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 10. Similar Supply/Demand Trends by Class YE 2013 Supply % Chg 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Demand % Chg Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Economy Midscale
  • 11. Rate: the only way is Up? www.strglobal.com
  • 12. Incongruence between Demand and ADR performance 12MMA Jan ‘11 5.4% 6% May ‘11 5.8% Dec ‘13 2.4% 3% 0% Dec ‘13 -1.0% -3% -6% Occ % Chg -9% -12% 2010 2011 2012 2013 ADR % Chg
  • 13. Negative ADR limiting RevPAR 12MMA May ‘11 10.9% 12% 8% Dec ‘13 1.7% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% -16% 2010 2011 2012 RevPAR % Chg 2013
  • 14. Occ growth; ADR declines across all classes Actual Occ & ADR & YOY % change Occupancy 72% ADR 270 € 0.0% +4.1% 70% 220 € 68% +2.4% 66% 170 € +1.5% +2.5% 120 € 64% +2.0% +2.2% -1.5% 70 € -0.4% 62% -1.6% -0.4% -1.9% 60% 20 € Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Occ 13 Upper Midscale ADR 13 Midscale Economy
  • 15. Southern Europe Signs of Recovery YE 2013 Northern Europe Occ 73% +3.4% ADR € 96 -3.5% RevPAR € 70 -0.2% Western Europe Eastern Europe Occ 67% +1.1% Occ 61% +3.0% ADR € 108 +0.3% ADR € 85 -4.0% €72 +1.4% RevPAR € 52 -1.0% RevPAR Southern Europe Occ 64% +2.2% ADR € 104 +2.2% RevPAR € 66 +4.4%
  • 16. Predominantly domestic demand Source: Quartz.com, European Commission
  • 18. Pipeline growth consistent with LTA +143k rooms +3% 2014-2016 6% 21% 15% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale 11% Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated 23% 6% 18%
  • 19. UK, Russia, Germany have largest pipelines Top 10 by rooms 11% 10% 21% 4% 4% 12% 38% 4% 3% 3% 2%
  • 21. Demand & GDP in step, GDP forecast more positive (GDP Source: Oxford Economics) 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Demand 2010 2011 GDP 2012 2013 2014f 2015f
  • 22. 2013 Actual Markets telling an Occupancy Story
  • 23. 2014 Forecast: Time for rate growth Feb 2014 edition – local currency
  • 24. Summary • Demand: Remains strong – increasing international arrivals; EU economic improvements • ADR: No real rate recovery, opportunities exist • Supply: Limited growth in most markets • Forecast: ADR growth across most markets
  • 25. Elizabeth Winkle STR Global +44 (0)207 922 1930 info@strglobal.com www.strglobal.com You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.