The 2021/22 academic year is due to see the return of GCSE examinations after a COVID-enforced two year hiatus. Before the pandemic hit, there was much concern about how these high-stakes examinations may be affecting young people’s mental health.
At the same time, it was recognised that those Year 11s who were struggling with their wellbeing may see their GCSE grades suffer as a result. Yet we actually know relatively little about this key issue – how strong is the link between the wellbeing of Year 11 pupils and the GCSE grades they achieve?
This blog takes a look at the evidence, drawing upon work I have published today in a new academic paper.
The study
In PISA 2018, a sample of over 4,000 Year 11s in England were asked how often they usually feel (a) happy; (b) lively; (c) joyful; (d) cheerful and (e) proud, responding to each using a four-point scale (never to always).
Using their responses, I have divided these Year 11s into three groups: low levels of wellbeing (i.e. the least happy 20%), high levels of wellbeing (the happiest 20%) and those who fall in-between.
The GCSE results of these three groups are then compared, both with and without the inclusion of a range of additional statistical controls (although the inclusion of these does not really change the results).
The headline result
Figure 1 provides, in a nutshell, the main findings from the paper. It compares the probability of achieving a grade 4 in GCSE mathematics across the three wellbeing groups.
Figure 1. The probability of achieving a grade 4 in mathematics by level of wellbeing in Year 11.
Notes: Figures based upon Jerrim (2021) reported in Appendix M4 (model M4). Model includes controls for demographics, Key Stage 2 scores, PISA scores and school fixed effects.
Differences in GCSE grades are – on the whole – pretty small. Having low levels of wellbeing in Year 11 is associated with only a modest decrease in the probability of achieving a grade 4 in mathematics (75%, compared to 78% for their peers with “average” levels of wellbeing).
On the other hand, there is no evidence that those Year 11s who feel particularly joyful do any better on their GCSEs than other groups (they in fact have a slightly lower chance of achieving a grade 4 in mathematics than the “average” wellbeing group).
Conclusions
The mental wellbeing of teenagers is clearly an important issue in its own right. And we currently have only a limited understanding of how this is impacted by England’s system of high-stakes examinations.
Yet the results from my new study perhaps provides at least some solace from the fact that – if Year 11s do struggle with their wellbeing – it is unlikely to have a major impact upon the GCSE grades that they go on to achieve.
I would question the relationship between happiness and wellbeing. What the result tells us relates to those that report they are happy…. not those that have high or low levels of wellbeing. What about the measures of impact on cognitive functioning as a result of psychological safety, incidence of mood swings, recognition of own mental state etc. Equally, some schools have a high stakes approach and others don’t, the data doesn’t correct for this. I think it is dangerous to suggest that a high stakes examination culture does not impact on wellbeing. This could turn out to be the case, contrary to our lived experience but then we need to look at what else is leading to the much higher incidence of mental health issues in young people.
I’m not surprised. I teach post 16 GCSE English. This is a compulsory part of their full time vocational courses for those who have not achieved a Grade 4 at school in Year 11.
We have a high number of students with personal issues and mental health problems ranging from anxiety to bipolar disorder.
There are often social and or family issues.
In my opinion, based on experience, it does not necessarily follow that wellbeing -or lack of it- prevents them from achieving their grade 4.
I was in two minds whether to read this as I expected the usual ‘Covid has affected students so badly’ brigade type of rant.
I was pleasantly surprised to see the outcomes.
Whilst I’m not saying that the last two-three years has been easy, I think that the arrangements and tweaking of the exams around grade boundaries was more than fair.
I have found that many of my disadvantaged students work hard, attend and do all they can to achieve, actually CAN achieve, with the right support and encouragement.
Absence from English and Maths classes is far too common and without consequence, which leads to an attitude of indifference.
I’m actually pleasantly boosted by this. Thank you.
I feel this doesn’t do enough to examine the impact of low wellbeing on grades – you would surely need to compare actual vs predicted grades. E.g. getting a 4 or 5 is not a great result if the student was prediccted 7s or above.