Sector Update
Update | Financials
Sector
| 20 March 2019
Financials - NBFC
Technology
FY14-18 deposits CAGR (%)
BAF
PNBHF
SHTF
HDFC
MMFS
Analyzing the deposit franchise for NBFCs
145
64
37
13
(3)
BAF, PNBHF outperform peers on deposit front
We analyzed the liability trends of some leading NBFCs, with a special focus on the deposit
franchise. Over the past four years, Bajaj Finance (BAF) has outperformed peers, with a
CAGR of 87% in the number of depositors (accounts) and 145% in deposits. PNB Housing
Finance (PNBHF) and Shriram Transport Finance (SHTF) have also performed well, with a
deposit CAGR of 64%/37%. HDFC has been treading steadily, and its depositor base of
nearly 2m is ~14x of the next largest competitor. Only MMFS has witnessed a steady
reduction in its depositor base and dependence on deposits.
FY14-18 no. of accounts CAGR (%)
BAF
HDFC
MMFS
Total deposits (INR b)
HDFC
PNBHF
BAF
SHTF
MMFS
Deposits as % of borrowings
HDFC
PNBHF
SHTF
BAF
MMFS
29.5
18.9
14.6
12.0
9.9
1,048
131
111
97
47
87
2
(11)
HDFC – depositor base by far the largest, but growth modest
HDFC has by far the largest depositor base approaching 2m customers.
However,
while the company has done well on asset growth, it has lagged slightly on the
deposit side.
Depositor base CAGR has been only 2% over the past four years
(FY14-18).
Overall growth in deposits has been driven more by an increase in the
average ticket size – at 11% CAGR to INR0.5m. Note that this could also be due to
the mix shift from retail to corporate deposits.
Bajaj Finance – superior performance on values/volumes
BAF’s management has a clear-cut objective to increase the share of deposits to
20-25% of total borrowings over the next three years.
Going by the trend of the
past four years, it is well on track to achieve the same, both by volumes and values.
The company has recorded a CAGR (FY14-18) of 87% in the number of depositors
and 145% in the deposit base. Average ticket size of INR0.75m is higher than that
of HDFC.
We attribute this to: (a) a higher minimum ticket size at BAF (INR25,000)
compared to HDFC (INR20,000) and (b) possibly a higher share of non-retail deposits
at BAF (60%) than HDFC.
Mahindra Finance – Scaling down the deposit franchise
It is interesting to note that MMFS has been scaling down its depositor franchise.
The number of accounts declined from 210k in FY14 to 130k in FY18.
This was
partially offset by a 9% CAGR in the average ticket size to INR0.24m.
The past two
years (FY16-18) have witnessed a significant reduction in the deposit base from
INR48b to INR31.
Note that these numbers exclude inter-corporate deposits (ICDs).
Steady performance by PNBHF and SHTF
PNBHF and SHTF do not disclose the number of depositor accounts in their annual
reports. However, they have both scaled up their deposit base significantly –
PNBHF/SHTF have recorded deposit CAGR of 64%/37% to INR115b/INR81b.
Research Analyst: Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
| Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1539
Story in tables
Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1542
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
20 March 2019
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
Exhibit 1:
13% deposit CAGR for HDFC over FY14-18
HDFC
Number of accounts
Total deposits (INR m)
Average ticket size (INR '000)
FY14
1,750,000
565,780
323
FY15
1,810,000
660,880
365
FY16
1,800,000
746,700
415
FY17
1,910,000
865,740
453
FY18
1,870,000
922,430
493
CAGR(%)
2
13
11
Exhibit 2:
BAF has witnessed 87% CAGR in the number of accounts over FY14-18
BAF
Number of accounts
Total deposits (INR m)
Average ticket size (INR '000)
FY14
8,239
2,110
256
FY15
22,453
9,830
438
FY16
42,996
22,430
522
FY17
70,806
41,280
583
FY18
101,182
75,690
748
CAGR(%)
87
145
31
Exhibit 3:
MMFS – Reducing dependence on public deposits
MMFS
Number of accounts
Total deposits (INR m)
Average ticket size (INR '000)
FY14
210,662
36,022
171
FY15
168,306
46,802
278
FY16
160,457
47,840
298
FY17
155,551
43,830
282
FY18
130,413
31,374
241
CAGR(%)
(11)
(3)
9
Exhibit 4:
PNBHF – On a robust growth trajectory
PNBHF
Total deposits (INR m)
FY14
15,795
FY15
46,266
FY16
69,760
FY17
99,870
FY18
115,496
CAGR(%)
64
Exhibit 5:
SHTF – Strong growth in deposits, but slowdown in FY18
SHTF
Total deposits (INR m)
FY14
23,042
FY15
53,597
FY16
77,966
FY17
84,737
FY18
81,283
CAGR(%)
37
Source: MOSL, Company
Interest rates more competitive at shorter tenor and vice-versa
All of the five companies discussed above offer interest rates ranging from 8.0%
to 8.3% for 1-2 year deposits. HDFC and BAF offer the lowest rates, while the
other three offer slightly higher rates.
However, we note that the difference in longer-tenor deposits becomes more
prominent. For deposits of more than three years, HDFC offers an interest rate
of 8.1%, while SHTF and MMFS offer 9.0%.
Interestingly, BAF is also targeting longer-term deposits, as evidenced from the
fact that it offers 8.75% on three-year+ deposits but only up to 8.15% on sub-
three-year deposits.
1-2 years
6.80
7.30
6.90-7.10
8.00
8.30
8.00
8.25
8.30-8.35
2-3 years
6.80
7.40
7.50
8.10
8.30
8.15
8.50
8.60-9.00
3 years+
6.80
7.25
7.25
8.10
8.40
8.75
9.00
9.00
Exhibit 6:
Interest rates offered on retail deposits
%
SBI
HDFCB
ICICIBC
HDFC
PNBHF
BAF
SHTF
MMFS
Source: MOSL, Company; Note: Interest rate offered depends on the scheme (cumulative/non-
cumulative option, payment frequency, etc.)
20 March 2019
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
Exhibit 7:
Financials - Valuation matrix
66
Rating
ICICIBC*
HDFCB
AXSB
KMB*
YES
IIB
FB
DCBB
SIB
Equitas
RBL
Private Aggregate
SBIN (cons)*
PNB
BOI
BOB
CBK
UNBK
Public Aggregate
Banks Aggregate
HDFC*
LICHF
IHFL
PNBHF
REPCO
Housing Finance
SHTF
MMFS
BAF
CIFC
SCUF
LTFH
MUTH
MAS
FY20E
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
CMP
Mcap
EPS (INR)
P/E (x)
BV (INR)
P/BV (x)
RoA (%)
RoE (%)
(INR) (USDb) FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E
393
37.3
7.7
20.2 37.8 14.3
166
181
1.7
1.6
0.5
1.2
4.7
11.8
2,299 89.6
79.8 95.9 28.8 24.0
543
621
4.2
3.7
1.8
1.8
16.7 16.5
756
28.4
18.5 39.6 40.8 19.1
266
301
2.8
2.5
0.6
1.2
7.2
13.9
1,351 37.3
37.9 46.1 35.7 29.3
303
348
4.5
3.9
1.7
1.7
12.1 13.3
252
8.3
18.5 22.6 13.6 11.1
126
145
2.0
1.7
1.2
1.2
15.5 16.7
1,714 15.0
68.8 100.2 24.9 17.1
441
556
3.9
3.1
1.7
2.1
16.5 20.2
93
2.7
6.1
8.9
15.1 10.4
67
75
1.4
1.2
0.8
1.0
9.5
12.5
199
0.9
10.2 13.2 19.6 15.1
96
109
2.1
1.8
0.9
1.0
11.6 13.4
16
0.4
1.7
2.7
9.6
6.0
29
31
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.5
5.6
8.6
134
0.7
6.8
9.5
19.7 14.0
73
81
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.6
9.7
12.4
645
4.0
20.6 28.0 31.2 23.0
176
199
3.7
3.2
1.2
1.3
12.3 14.9
303
94
101
125
276
88
39.2
5.0
2.5
4.8
2.9
1.5
6.6
-14.4
-24.4
8.9
17.0
4.5
30.0
8.0
3.7
15.7
42.3
12.8
40.6
-6.5
-4.1
14.1
16.2
19.7
9.3
11.7
27.0
8.0
6.5
6.9
247
112
127
165
448
235
272
120
128
179
484
245
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.1
-0.6
-0.9
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.3
1.8
-11.0
-15.0
5.3
3.5
2.1
11.5
6.6
2.7
8.8
8.2
5.5
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
1,987
521
733
861
453
1,209
419
2,872
1,371
1,799
146
594
549
47.9
3.8
4.3
2.1
0.4
4.0
3.7
24.4
3.1
1.7
4.2
3.5
0.4
42.8
47.7
95.9
66.0
38.8
49.6
56.1
110.2
78.0
44.4
22.3
10.9
7.6
13.0
11.7
11.1
19.3
42.0
17.6
12.5
12.7
12.1
19.4
19.2
9.3
6.7
11.0
10.2
9.1
15.5
32.2
15.5
11.4
11.0
10.4
16.8
307
325
396
435
244
693
172
329
394
949
66
228
154
343
371
446
496
285
808
191
408
473
1,089
78
268
179
3.1
1.6
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.7
2.4
8.7
3.5
1.9
2.2
2.6
3.6
2.8
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.2
7.0
2.9
1.7
1.9
2.2
3.1
1.8
1.4
3.2
1.5
2.3
2.4
2.3
3.8
2.5
3.5
2.3
5.8
4.9
1.9
1.5
3.5
1.4
2.3
2.7
2.3
3.7
2.3
3.6
2.2
6.0
4.6
15.6
15.6
25.7
16.1
17.2
16.8
13.2
22.8
21.8
16.3
18.8
23.2
19.8
15.3
16.1
26.2
16.8
16.8
17.8
14.9
24.2
20.4
15.5
18.5
23.0
19.6
108.7 133.3
21.7 27.0
68.3 89.1
78.1 88.4
144.2 158.0
11.5 13.3
48.9 57.1
28.4 32.6
*Multiples adj. for value of key ventures/Investments; For ICICI Bank and HDFC Ltd BV is adjusted for investments in subsidiaries
Source: MOSL, Company
20 March 2019
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
Sector Update | Financials
* In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL*
)
is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services,
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have received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.
In the last 12 months period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report, MOSL or any of its associates may have:
a)
managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,
b)
received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,
c)
received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.
d)
Subject Company may have been a client of MOSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
MOSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency, MOSL has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in
this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
the recipients of this report should be aware that MOSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part
or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report
is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied,
is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to
buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as customers by
virtue of their receiving this report.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the
specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
Companies where there is interest
No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com. Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOSL or
its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to subject company for which Research Team have
expressed their views.
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or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm
Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser:
INA000007100.Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409)
offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate
products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
*MOSL
has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing registration no(s) of
MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.
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