Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi is an unequal fight in 2014

By: B V Rao, Editor, Governance Now
Success, they say, has many fathers, so let’s get the easy stuff out of the way first and identify the losers of today’s elections: Jyotiraditya Scindia, Ashok Gehlot, Ajit Jogi, Sheila Dikshit and Rahul Gandhi.

The Congress, which of course is the biggest loser being the party of all losers, will, by force of sycophantic habit, underplay the role of the last named on the list just as the rest of us will be tempted to dismiss him prematurely as an electoral dud.

The debate touched off by today’s results will centre around the winners, or to be more precise, denying one winner: Narendra Modi. Nobody will have a problem picking Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje Scindia, Raman Singh, Harsh Vardhan, Arvind Kejriwal, the BJP and Aam Aadmi Party as the winners.

But any number of facts and factoids will be thrown in our direction to tell us why Modi was no big deal. “Look at Delhi,” they will tell you, “Modi campaigned hard but could not even ensure a simple majority for BJP.”

That is a fact but what a fact reveals often depends on which side you are looking at it from. Seen from the other end, isn’t it possible that Modi may have actually cost the AAP a clear shot at government formation in its maiden election? How the BJP, which was nowhere in the scene just six weeks ago, retain its vote share of 2008?

Harsh Vardhan magic? Tell me about it! The MP victory will be attributed wholly to Shivraj just to deny the Modi impact, quite forgetting the fact that Shivraj had opposed Modi’s anointment because he feared that he would lose about 30 seats where the minority votes matter. He has ended up bettering his tally and the party’s vote share.

In Chhattisgarh where Raman Singh just about hung on to power, even as his ministers fell to antiincumbency, should we say the Modi factor failed or saved the day? And in Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje herself has given credit to Modi for her mammoth victory.

When it becomes difficult to deny Modi, the next trick to try is to find bigger winners to discuss. So, some commentators will tell us that the biggest winner of the day is AAP. Yes, in the context of Delhi, AAP is a phenomenon that is stellar. It opens up the possibility of a million mutinies across the country to challenge the established political parties in small states and city-governments, which could force the traditional parties to change.

Yet others will talk about Shivraj becoming a viable counter-force to Modi etcetera. But let’s get this straight. It seems like Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi is an unequal fight. We don’t even know if Rahul wants to join the fight going by what he said about “transforming” the party in ways we can’t “even imagine”. That sounds like a plan for the long term.

So, for now, as Gabbar Singh would have said, “Modi chaar, Rahul shunya…Bahut na-insaafi hai!”