Motilal Oswal Financial Services

19 May 2020

4QFY20 Results Update | Sector: Telecom

Bharti Airtel

Estimate change

TP change

Rating change

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

BHARTI IN

5,456

3268.7 / 38.8

603 / 322

24/62/103

6145

CMP: INR 599

TP: INR 710(+19% )

Buy

Improving ARPU drives earnings; higher capex derails FCF



Financials & Valuations (INR b)

FY20 FY21E FY22E

Y/E March

Sales

875.4 1,011.9 1,134.8

EBITDA

366.1 451.3 532.6

Adj. PAT

-40.7

16.2

35.0

EBIT Margin (%)

41.8

44.6

46.9

Adj. EPS (INR)

-7.5

3.0

6.4

EPS Gr. (%)

-14.6 -139.8 115.7

BV/Sh. (INR)

141.4 144.4 150.8

Ratios

Net D:E

1.4

0.7

RoE (%)

-5.5

2.1

4.3

RoCE (%)

3.3

4.3

6.0

Payout (%)

0.0

Valuations

EV/EBITDA (x)

12.1

9.8

7.4

P/E (x)

NM 200.7

93.1

P/BV (x)

4.2

4.1

4.0

Div. Yield (%)

0.0

FCF Yield (%)

-0.9

3.2

15.0

Shareholding pattern (%)

As On

Dec-19 Sep-19

Promoter

62.7

DII

14.1

13.2

FII

16.5

22.4

Others

6.7

1.7

FII Includes depository receipts

The price hikes taken in Dec’19 and healthy 4G subscriber adds improved

ARPU, which in turn led to an increase in EBITDA. However, capex doubled

QoQ to INR113b, which resulted in operating FCF turning negative. Further,

the QIP amount was utilized to partly pay AGR liabilities.

We largely maintain our FY21E consol. EBITDA estimates building ARPU

increase of 8% on favorable 4G subscriber mix. We increase our FY22E

EBITDA by 5% with higher ARPU increase of 14%, after building in some

tariff increase.

Higher network cost drags incremental EBITDA margin to 60%



Dec-18

67.1

13.9

17.2

1.8



Consol. revenue/EBITDA on post Ind-AS 116 basis was up 8%/10% QoQ (in-

line) to INR237.2b/INR102b due to strong ARPU growth in the India wireless

business. EBITDA margin expanded 80bp to 43% (40bp below est.).

Adjusting for reclassification in the DTH business, consol. revenue/EBITDA

grew 9%/12%.

Reported net loss stood at INR52.4b due to higher interest cost (up 11%

QoQ) of INR33.1b and an exceptional charge of INR70b. Excluding the

exceptional charge, adj. net loss stood at INR4.7b (v/s INR10.8b QoQ and

est. INR4b).

India wireless revenue grew 16% QoQ to INR129.5b (5% beat), which can be

attributed to the strong ARPU increase. EBITDA rose 27% QoQ to INR50.8b

with incremental EBITDA margin of 60% (compared to the anticipated 70%)

due to 7% increase in total opex (excl. license fee) on high network cost.

ARPU jumped 14% QoQ to INR154 (v/s est. INR147) on the recent tariff

hikes and healthy 4G subs addition, which improved ARPU mix. Over the

last two quarters, cumulative ARPU increased 20%, which largely captured

the full benefit of the tariff hikes against our expectation of it spreading out

till 1QFY21. BHARTI’s ARPU growth was better than RJio’s 2% ARPU increase

to INR131. VIL’s ARPU increase is estimated at 9% to INR131.

Subscriber adds were flat QoQ at 284m, but 4G subs grew 10% QoQ to

136m – 12.5m fresh adds, thus leading the estimated incremental 4G

market share over the last two quarters.

Capex surged to INR113b (v/s INR51.8b in 3QFY20 and cumulative capex of

INR140b in 9MFY20; est. INR200b in FY20), primarily due to the India

wireless capex of INR70b (v/s INR25.4b in 3QFY20 and INR81.5b in

9MFY20). This increase in capex led to negative operating FCF of INR10b in

4QFY20.

Net debt increased by INR35b to INR883b (excluding lease liability). Further,

QIP of INR144b was utilized to partly repay the AGR liability of INR180b.

Including the balance AGR liability, net debt stood at ~INR1,005b against

FY20 (pre Ind-AS 116) EBITDA of INR305b, i.e. 3.5x. This should further

reduce to below 3x in FY21E.

Research Analyst: Aliasgar Shakir

(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1565

Suhel Shaikh

(Suhel.Ahmad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 5036 2611;

Anshul Aggarwal

(Anshul.Aggarwal@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 5036 2511

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal

May 2020

Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Bharti Airtel

Highlights from management commentary



ARPU trajectory to remain healthy, but no immediate plans for price hike:

ARPU improvement was supported by no downtrading despite the recent price

hike, increase in postpaid customers and increasing mix of 4G subscribers.

BHARTI’s ARPU should touch INR200 in the short term and INR300 in the long

term, which is essential for the telecom business.

Incremental EBITDA margin at 60-65%:

In 4QFY20, incremental EBITDA margin

stood at 60%. On a stable-state basis, incremental EBITDA margin is expected at

~65%, but this would depend on the network cost and sales and distribution

expense (to drive 4G subscriber adds).

Capex should moderate:

Network densification, massive MIMOs, 3G spectrum

re-farming, core and transport infrastructure deployment and front loading of

investment due to COVID-19 led to higher capex in 4QFY20. Capex should

moderate and would be lower in both 1QFY21 and FY21.

BHARTI has delivered strong execution in the last two quarters, with industry

leading revenue growth, ARPU increase and 4G subscriber adds. It also has

healthy network capacity v/s peers. Further, BHARTI is well placed to drive

additional ARPU growth and market share gains given the vulnerability of its

peers. This should help BHARTI generate healthy FCF and subsequent

deleveraging in the future.

However, given the current economic woes and market conditions, the next

round of price increase could go beyond 6-9 months.

We assign EV/EBITDA of 12x to the India wireless business and 6x to the Africa

business on FY22E to arrive at a TP (SOTP) of INR710 (prior: INR620). Maintain

Buy. Our higher multiple for the India wireless business captures expected gains

from any potential ARPU increase, growing market share and possible

government reliefs.

FY19

204

202

-6.2

-0.4

142

140

-21.2 -16.7

-19

-12

-14

-20

-22

-2

112.5 -91.1

-10

-304.3 -339.7

FY20

FY19 FY20

2Q 3Q

FY20E

211 219 237

808 875

233

3.5 8.5 15.1

-2.2

8.4

12.9

123 127 135

550 509

132

93 102

258 366

101

41.9 49.0 53.8 -14.3 42.1

52.1

213 277

96 124

-6

-5

-47 -26

307

-29 402

-313 -15

-70

-17 -428

-85 -10

-20

-34 -122

27.1 69.1 29.0 197.4 28.4

40.0

-230 -10

-52

4 -322

-4

-11 -11

-5

-35 -41

-4

16.4 3.8 -60.4 -350.3 16.6 -67.9

(INR b)

Est

Var (%)

2.0

2.7

1.1

175

0.4

12.5

-21.8

Valuation and view



Consolidated - Quarterly Earning Model

Y/E March

Revenue

YoY Change (%)

Total Expenditure

EBITDA

YoY Change (%)

Depreciation

Net Finance cost

Other Income

PBT before EO expense

Extra-Ord expense

PBT

Tax

Rate (%)

Minority Interest & P/L of Asso. Cos.

Reported PAT

Adj PAT

YoY Change (%)

E: MOFSL Estimates

201

-8.6

134

-13.3

-3

-6

-11

174.1

-3

-174.0

206

207

6.2

3.3

140

125

-4.3 23.1

-13

-15

-20

-30

-6

19.3 20.2

-29

-12

-14

-1,524.1 366.1

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

Key Performance Indicators

Bharti India Wireless

FY19

FY20

FY19

FY20

FY20E

ARPU (INR)

Total Subscribers (m)

Data Subscribers (m)

Monthly churn (%)

Data Traffic (b MB)

Data usage/sub (MB)

Airtel Africa

105

345

2.0

2,151

7,864

33.5

7.9

-1.5

100

333

4.1

2,660

9,221

30.6

4.9

-4.7

104

284

108

7.3

3,217

10,528

30.7

3.7

-5.1

123

129

128

135

154

283

277

279

283

284

115

120

124

138

149

2.8

2.6

3,705 4,192 4,829 5,547 6,453

11,048 11,930 13,116 13,928 14,972

32.2

5.5

-5.8

100

39.9

7.3

-6.8

104

41.9

9.1

-5.3

107

42.2

10.6

-4.9

111

43.0

13.3

-2.0

115

283

115

4.0

11,733

9,718

31.9

5.5

-4.3

135

147

284

149

150

2.6

21,020 6,318

13,284 14,627

111

41.8

10.2

-4.7

109

43.4

13.1

-1.6

Mobile Subs (m)

ARPUs (USD)

EBITDA Margins (%)

EBIT Margin (%)

Adj. PAT Margins (%)

E:MOFSL Estimates

Other financial highlights



Net finance cost increased 11% QoQ to INR33.1b on higher derivatives cost

partly offset by higher finance income. Gross interest cost was up 3% QoQ.

BHARTI witnessed total exceptional charge of INR70b – (a) INR56.4b toward

regulatory cost (one-time spectrum charge) after the recent judgment on VIL,

(b) INR8.7b interest provisioning for license fee and spectrum usage charge and

INR1.7b related to regulatory charge, (c) INR1.7b toward subsidiary taxes, and

(d) INR808m toward accelerated depreciation and other miscellaneous items of

INR766m.

Data traffic jumped 16% QoQ to 6.5b GB (15GB per user). BHARTI’s data traffic is

about one-third of RJio with potentially ~15-20% (est.) lower capacity,

highlighting better network experience and room for improvement.

MOU was up 8% to 965mins.

Africa revenue grew 4% QoQ to INR64.9b (in-line).

EBITDA grew a meager 1% QoQ to INR28.6b (2% below est.).

Enterprise revenue/EBITDA grew 2%/11% QoQ to INR33.7b/INR13.5b.

Home revenue/EBITDA grew 3%/-9% QoQ to INR5.7b/INR3b.

Passive revenue/EBITDA was up 1%/3% to INR16.8b/INR9b.

Digital revenue/EBITDA dropped 24%/33% to INR6b/INR3.6b with sharp decline

in ARPUs

Base station addition saw a huge jump QoQ – 30k sites were added (v/s 12k

sites in 3QFY20), taking BHARTI’s tally to a healthy 504k base stations (closer to

RJio). Unique broadband tower adds too were up 5k to 192k. Part of the

increase in capex was toward core fiber addition.

Key performance indicators



Airtel Africa



Other segments



Capex shoots up



19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

Valuation and view



Expect strong ARPU increase or market share gains:

We believe that BHARTI

remains in a win-win situation, irrespective of the SC’s outcome on VIL’s

fortunes. The government has been pitching for a healthy telecom market (3

private and 1 PSU player), which accentuates the need for VIL to stay afloat.

However, VIL’s survival would require a sharp ARPU increase (~50%) along with

moratorium of payments to service its regulatory and debt obligations, which

could also benefit BHARTI. Further, even in the worst-case scenario of no

government support on AGR dues, BHARTI’s financial position is strong enough

to withstand the storm, and in fact, could lead to significant market share gains

for the company at the cost of VIL. In either case, our workings indicate that

BHARTI could deliver a marked rise in earnings; we see potential increase of

~45% in our FY22E EBITDA estimate to INR680b.

Steady market share explains competitive position:

Despite the commercial

launch of RJio three years ago, BHARTI has consistently maintained its revenue

market share of ~30% as against the ~15pp loss by VIL in the past two years. Of

monthly 10-12m industry MBB subs adds, BHARTI has garnered a healthy 30%

market share, excluding estimated 3-4m Jiophone adds. During this quarter, the

company added 12.5m 4G customers (more than our estimated incremental

market share of 40%). In our opinion, BHARTI is well positioned to add MBB

subscribers at a healthy pace.

Valuation and view:

Given the in-line results, we largely maintain our revenue

estimates for FY21 while increase it by 2% for FY22E. Although we have

captured AGR liabilities in our SOTP model, we have not built in any

consequential benefit arising from the AGR verdict – (a) government relief

toward industry repair, and (b) market share gain resulting from the weakening

third player. While we have built in some tariff increase into our FY22E estimate,

the actual tariff hike is likely to be higher. Subsequently, we have captured it in a

higher multiple in our SOTP-based model, wherein we have assigned 12x

EV/EBITDA to the India wireless business and 6x EV/EBITDA to the Africa

business on FY22E. Our TP is revised to INR710 (v/s INR620 earlier). Maintain

Buy.

Exhibit 1: Bharti Airtel — SOTP-based on FY22E

EBITDA

(INR b)

India SA business (excl. towers)

Tower business (15% discount to fair value)

Africa business

Less net debt

AGR Liability

Total Value

Shares o/s (b)

CMP

Upside (%)

353

140

Ownership

(%)

100%

53.5%

55.2%

Proportionate

EBITDA

(INR b)

353

EV/

EBITDA (x)

Fair Value

(INR b)

4,233

235

463

883

180

4,049

Value/

Share (INR)

776

162

710

5.5

599

Source: Company, MOFSL

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

Exhibit 2: BHARTI: One-year forward EV/EBITDA

EV/EBITDA (x)

Avg (x)

Min (x)

+1SD

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

7.5

8.8

6.3

5.7

Max (x)

-1SD

11.5

8.7

Source: MOFSL, Company

Highlights from management commentary

Key highlights



ARPU trajectory to remain healthy, but no immediate plans for price hike:

ARPU improvement was supported by (a) no downtrading despite the recent

price hike, (b) increase in postpaid customers, and (c) increasing mix of 4G

subscribers. ARPU should touch INR200 in the short term and INR300 in the long

term, which is essential for the telecom business.



Incremental EBITDA margin at 60-65%:

In 4QFY20, incremental EBITDA margin

stood at 60%. On a stable-state basis, incremental EBITDA margin is expected at

~65%, but this would depend on the network cost and sales and distribution

expense (to drive 4G adds).

Capex should moderate:

Network densification,

massive MIMOs, 3G spectrum re-farming, core and transport infrastructure

deployment and front loading of investment due to COVID-19 led to higher

capex in 4QFY20. Capex should moderate and would be lower in both 1QFY21

and FY21.



Home broadband opportunity:

BHARTI is excited about the growing

opportunity in the home broadband segment, especially during the current

prevalent work from home (WFH) culture. In 4QFY20, 60-65k home broadband

customers were added.

Operational performance



Capex:

Core and transport capex was used in both wireless and enterprise

business. Capex/home pass have substantially reduced in the last 2-3 years.

Telcos’ investment in core and transport infrastructure is taking a

disproportionate share of the total capex. To move toward 5G, more base

stations and towers are needed to be connected to fiber, which is also driving

capex.

Leverage:

Net debt to EBITDA reduced to 2.8x in FY20 (v/s 4.2x in FY19).

Digital platform:

BHARTI has 150m digital customers on digital platforms such

as Airtel Thanks, Airtel xtreme and Airtel wynk. Further, there are 1.1m retailer

transactions on the Mitra app. ~60% of BHARTI’s entire business goes through

digital channels. The company has launched WFH solutions during COVID-19.

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel



BHARTI has a digital team of 1,200 employees with B2C partners across content,

financial services, etc.

Subscriber churn:

Subscriber churn of 2.6% is over stated due to the lockdown

in the last 15 days of Mar’20.

Subscriber mix to drive ARPUs:

Feature phone subscribers have INR49 and

INR69 plan with no data, thus, ARPU for these customers is ~INR50. In case of

4G subscribers, the entry-level plan is of INR219, thus, here ARPU is more than

INR200. Therefore, subscribers shifting from feature phones to smartphones

drives 3x ARPUs.

Postpaid customers:

Entry plan is at INR399, thus ARPU for postpaid plans are

substantially higher. Management believes that postpaid has higher opportunity

to grow – similar to the trend in other developing countries i.e. in the

Philippines, postpaid constitutes 50-55% of total customers while in Brazil, it

constitutes 60-65%. In India, the number of postpaid subs is lower due to

arbitrage in price plans between prepaid and postpaid; the decline in prepaid

pricing has led to a drop in postpaid subscriber share.

Spectrum holding:

Management is comfortable with the current spectrum

holding of the company. There is still an opportunity to re-farm the spectrum

and the company is looking to have sub GHz spectrum in select circles.

Airtel India holds 56% in Airtel Africa

(post the IPO) and it is a

strategic

investment;

market prices are not reflecting true value of the company.

Airtel Africa strategy:

Management is looking to grow profits in Africa with

leverage within the range of 2-2.5x with cash flow generation. Devaluation of

local currency is a headwind currently. Execution strategies of Airtel Africa are

local and independent.

ARPU break-up



Network capacity



Airtel Africa



Broadband business

Healthy growth opportunity:

BHARTI is excited about growing opportunity in

the home broadband segment. In 4QFY20, the company added 60-65k home

broadband customers. Due to COVID-19, the company has witnessed huge

demand for home broadband.

Strategy for expansion:

It is working in two ways to expand the broadband

subscription – (a) to expand into the top-10 cities with capex, and (b) tying up

with cable operators (providing them share of revenue) in smaller cities.



COVID-19 impact



The company is witnessing huge demand for home broadband.

There is significant increase in B2B site with growth in some services such as

collaboration services, video conferencing, etc.

Mobile business:

4G customers were more resilient, while lower ARPU feature

phone customers are facing significant pressure. The company has launched

alternate recharge channels for such customers; however, while some were able

to recharge, many were also unable due to the economic impact.

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

Outlook



Regulatory:

BHARTI expects the government to understand the pain of the

industry and to implement TRAI’s recommended proposal to reduce the tax

burden.

One digital platform:

BHARTI has 35m monthly active subscribers on the

company’s payment bank with their mobile numbers as bank account numbers.

The company’s focus is to develop a single digital platform to bundle broadband,

mobility and DTH services. This in turn would lead to lower churn, higher ARPU

and greater stickiness for the company. Digital connectivity also requires very

low capex.

Exhibit 3: Consolidated segment-wise performance (INR m)

Revenue

Mobile India

Telemedia

Enterprise

Passive Infrastructure

Digital TV

South Asia

Others

Africa

Eliminations

Consolidated Revenue

EBITDA

Mobile India

Telemedia

Enterprise

Passive Infrastructure

Digital TV

South Asia

Africa

Eliminations

Consolidated EBITDA

Consolidated EBITDA (Adj. for Ind-As 116)

EBITDA margin (%)

Mobile India

Telemedia

Enterprise

Passive Infrastructure

Digital TV

Mobile South Asia

Africa

Consolidated EBITDA margin

Depreciation and amortization

Operating income

Other income and share of JV/Associate

Net finance cost

Pro forma Profit Before Taxes

Exceptional Items

Pro forma Tax

Effective Tax Rate (%)

Pro forma Profit After Tax

Pro forma Minority Interest

Pro forma Net Profit

Pro forma Adj. Net Profit

4QFY19

1,06,323

5,536

30,039

16,704

10,505

1,124

55,115

-19,361

2,06,022

25,657

2,450

9,587

8,167

3,926

24,245

-7,761

66,316

24.1

44.3

31.9

48.9

37.4

4.0

44.0

32.2

54,934

11,382

855

25,323

-13,086

-20,221

1,374

-10.5

5,761

4,689

1,072

-11,882

3QFY20

1,11,654

5,546

33,177

16,662

7,922

1,155

116

62,692

-19,456

2,19,468

40,109

3,302

12,125

8,782

5,441

105

28,268

-5,463

92,669

77,281

35.9

59.5

36.5

52.7

68.7

9.1

45.1

42.2

69,408

23,261

2,057

29,846

-4,528

10,500

-10,379

229.2

-4,649

5,704

-10,353

-10,805

4QFY20

1,29,528

5,725

33,762

16,826

6,035

1,203

64,888

-20,755

2,37,227

50,796

3,012

13,466

9,032

3,648

147

28,644

-6,723

1,02,021

86,633

39.2

52.6

39.9

53.7

60.5

12.2

44.1

43.0

70,550

31,471

1,540

33,076

-65

70,040

-20,335

31284.6

-49,770

2,600

-52,370

-4,708

YoY%

21.8

3.4

12.4

0.7

-42.6

7.0

-59.5

17.7

7.2

15.1

98.0

22.9

40.5

10.6

-7.1

226.4

18.1

-13.4

53.8

30.6

1508bps

835bps

797bps

478bps

2308bps

821bps

15bps

1082bps

28.4

176.5

80.1

30.6

-99.5

-446.4

-1580.0

3129511.5

-963.9

-44.6

-4985.3

QoQ%

16.0

3.2

1.8

1.0

-23.8

4.2

-87.1

3.5

6.7

8.1

26.6

-8.8

11.1

2.8

-32.9

39.7

1.3

23.1

10.1

12.1

329bps

-694bps

334bps

97bps

-823bps

311bps

-95bps

78bps

1.6

35.3

-25.1

10.8

-98.6

567.0

95.9

3105539.7

970.6

-54.4

405.8

4QFY20E

1,22,921

5,631

33,675

16,916

7,997

1,178

118

64,940

-20,803

2,32,573

50,508

2,485

9,498

9,403

5,681

29,229

-5,946

1,00,863

85,475

41.1

44.1

28.2

55.6

71.0

0.4

45.0

43.4

70,303

30,560

1,970

29,390

3,140

1,256

40.0

1,884

5,704

-3,820

v/s Est (%)

5.4

1.7

0.3

-0.5

-24.5

2.1

-87.3

-0.1

-0.2

2.0

0.6

21.2

41.8

-4.0

-35.8

2690.6

-2.0

13.1

1.1

1.4

-187bps

848bps

1168bps

-191bps

-1059bps

1176bps

-87bps

-36bps

0.4

3.0

-21.8

12.5

-102.1

Source: MOFSL, Company

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

Exhibit 4: Summary of estimate change

FY21E

Revenue consolidated (INR b)

Old

New

Change (%)

EBITDA consolidated (INR b)

Old

New

Change (%)

EBITDA margin consolidated (%)

Old

New

Change (bp)

India Mobile Revenue (INR b)

Old

New

Change (%)

India Mobile EBITDA (INR b)

Old

New

Change (%)

India ARPU (INR)

Old

New

Change (%)

Adj. EPS (INR)

Old

New

Change (%)

Africa Mobile Revenue (INRb)

Old

New

Change (%)

Africa Mobile EBITDA (INRb)

Old

New

Change (%)

1021

1012

-0.9

456

451

-1.0

44.7

44.6

-8

564

560

-1

244

230

-5

165

163

-1.1

4.0

3.0

-24.6

274

276

0.5

126

128

1.7

FY22E

1116

1135

1.7

508

533

4.9

45.5

46.9

142

626

654

277

296

177

184

4.1

5.3

6.5

23.1

296

297

0.5

138

140

1.1

Source: Company, MOFSL

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

Story in charts

Exhibit 5: Consol. revenue increased 8% QoQ; Consol. EBITDA margin expanded 80bp (INR b, %)

Consol revenue (INR b)

Consol EBITDA margin (%)

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 6: India mobile revenue grew 16% QoQ

Revenue (INR b)

EBITDA margin (%)

Exhibit 7: Africa revenue grew 4% QoQ

Revenue (INR b)

EBITDA margin (%)

Exhibit 8: India mobile subs base stood at 284m

Subs (m)

India Mobile ARPU (INR)

Exhibit 9: Africa ARPU was flat QoQ

Subs (m)

Mobile ARPU (USD)

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

Exhibit 10: India mobile total cell site base and quarterly

additions

Cell sites ('000)

QoQ Sites added ('000)

7.3

4.5

1.5

8.8

Exhibit 11: India mobile broadband sites base and quarterly

additions

Broadband sites ('000)

QoQ Sites added ('000)

1.1

1.9 1.7

3.0

2.9

1.9 1.3 1.8

0.3 0.6 0.9

1.9 1.6

3.7 4.3

5.8

15.1 27.9

14.4

9.6

8.110.37.8 4.7 6.8

7.2

4.5

4.1

3.5

2.6 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.0

1.7

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 12: Bharti Africa — PBT in constant currency (USD m)

Exhibit 13: Bharti Airtel – segmental capex trend (INR b)

India Wireless (%)

Other segments (%)

Africa (%)

Total capex (INR b)

14 27 49 92 130 106 113 115 121 129 120 143 175 143

(22)(20)

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 14: Telemedia business revenue grew 3% QoQ

Revenue (INR b)

EBITDA margin (%)

Exhibit 15: Digital TV business trend

Revenue (INR b)

EBITDA margin (%)

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 16: Enterprise business revenue trend

Revenue (INR b)

EBITDA margin (%)

Exhibit 17: Passive Infra business revenue trend

Revenue (INR b)

EBITDA margin (%)

Source: Company, MOFSL

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

Exhibit 18: Business mix

Revenue (INR b)

Mobile

Telemedia

Enterprise

Passive Infrastructure

Others (incl South Asia)

Africa

Total revenue

Eliminations and others

Consolidated revenue

YoY%

EBITDA (INR b)

Mobile

Telemedia

Enterprise

Passive Infrastructure

Others (incl South Asia)

Africa

Total EBITDA

Eliminations and others

Consolidated EBITDA

YoY%

Consolidated EBITDA margin (%)

Capex (INR b)

Consolidated capex

YoY%

Capex/Sales (%)

FY14

467

272

934

-77

857

158

259

-6

254

32.3

175

FY15

520

269

998

-77

920

194

292

-5

287

33.9

210

FY16

561

251

1039

-76

963

219

347

-7

340

35.2

271

FY17

566

109

220

1032

-78

955

-1

227

364

-11

353

37.0

384

FY18

463

113

191

904

-78

826

-13

151

315

-14

301

-15

36.4

267

-30

FY19

416

125

215

892

-84

808

-2

285

-26

258

-14

31.9

305

FY20E

460

132

242

958

-82

875

170

107

388

-22

366

41.8

-30

-110

-3

FY21E

560

142

276

1103

-91

1012

230

128

481

-30

451

44.6

203

-783

FY22E

654

154

297

1239

-104

1135

296

140

568

-35

533

46.9

203

Source: Company, MOFSL

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

Financials and Valuations

Consolidated - Income Statement

Y/E March

Total Income from Operations

Change (%)

Total Expenditure

% of Sales

EBITDA

Margin (%)

Depreciation

EBIT

Int. and Finance Charges

Other Income

PBT bef. EO Exp.

EO Items

PBT after EO Exp.

Total Tax

Tax Rate (%)

Minority Interest

Reported PAT

Adjusted PAT

Change (%)

Margin (%)

FY14

857

11.5

581

67.7

277

32.3

156

120

61.6

43.0

3.2

FY15

920

7.3

608

66.1

312

33.9

155

157

115

-8

107

50.4

102.7

6.1

FY16

965

4.9

625

64.8

340

35.2

174

165

107

128

46.3

-12.0

5.1

FY17

955

-1.1

601

63.0

353

37.0

198

156

-12

45.1

-9.5

4.7

FY18

826

-13.4

526

63.6

301

36.4

192

108

-8

33.2

-68.6

1.7

FY19

808

-2.2

550

68.1

258

31.9

213

-47

-17

-34

197.4

-35

-350.3

-4.3

FY20

875

8.4

509

58.2

366

41.8

277

124

-26

-402

-428

-122

28.4

-322

-41

16.6

-4.7

FY21E

1,012

15.6

561

55.4

451

44.6

318

133

108

29.0

-139.8

1.6

(INR b)

FY22E

1,135

12.2

602

53.1

533

46.9

340

192

103

29.0

115.7

3.1

Consolidated - Balance Sheet

Y/E March

Equity Share Capital

Total Reserves

Net Worth

Minority Interest

Total Loans

Deferred Tax Liabilities

Capital Employed

Net Fixed Assets

Total Investments

Curr. Assets, Loans & Adv.

Inventory

Account Receivables

Cash and Bank Balance

Loans and Advances

Curr. Liability & Prov.

Account Payables

Provisions

Net Current Assets

Appl. of Funds

E: MOFSL Estimates

FY14

578

598

759

-46

1,353

1,406

155

208

416

405

-209

1,353

FY15

600

620

807

-44

1,431

1,501

170

227

146

468

459

-241

1,431

FY16

648

668

1,005

-34

1,693

1,780

120

311

217

518

508

-207

1,693

FY17

655

675

1,073

-17

1,799

1,891

182

234

173

507

497

-273

1,799

FY18

675

695

1,113

-22

1,875

1,589

180

327

219

602

577

-275

1,875

FY19

694

714

135

1,254

-83

2,021

1,684

176

382

276

641

621

-259

2,021

FY20

744

771

250

1,482

-263

2,241

1,949

278

724

136

541

1,097

621

476

-373

2,241

FY21E

760

788

255

1,562

-263

2,343

2,220

141

739

358

315

757

659

-18

2,343

(INR b)

FY22E

795

823

288

1,542

-263

2,390

2,083

141

1,385

818

505

1,218

673

546

166

2,390

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

Financials and Valuations

Ratios

Y/E March

Basic (INR)

EPS

Cash EPS

BV/Share

DPS

Payout (%)

Valuation (x)

P/E

Cash P/E

P/BV

EV/Sales

EV/EBITDA

Dividend Yield (%)

Return Ratios (%)

RoE

RoCE

RoIC

Working Capital Ratios

Asset Turnover (x)

Debtor (Days)

Leverage Ratio (x)

Net Debt/Equity

FY14

6.9

46.0

149.5

1.8

30.2

86.6

13.0

4.0

3.6

11.2

0.3

5.0

3.8

4.2

0.6

0.9

FY15

14.0

52.8

155.0

2.2

19.9

42.7

11.3

3.8

3.5

10.2

0.4

9.2

5.8

6.5

0.6

1.0

FY16

12.3

55.9

168.8

1.4

10.8

48.5

10.7

3.5

9.9

0.2

7.6

6.1

6.4

0.6

1.3

FY17

11.1

60.6

168.8

1.0

12.7

53.7

9.8

3.5

3.6

9.5

0.2

6.6

5.3

5.4

0.5

1.3

FY18

3.5

51.6

173.9

1.0

43.8

170.7

11.5

3.4

4.2

11.2

0.2

2.0

4.6

4.5

0.4

1.3

FY19

-8.7

44.7

178.7

0.0

-68.2

13.3

3.3

4.4

13.5

0.0

-5.0

-2.5

-2.6

0.4

1.4

FY20

-7.5

43.3

141.4

0.0

-79.8

13.8

4.2

5.3

12.1

0.0

-5.5

3.3

3.7

0.4

1.4

FY21E

3.0

61.3

144.4

0.0

200.7

9.7

4.1

4.4

9.8

0.0

2.1

4.3

5.2

0.4

1.4

FY22E

6.4

68.8

150.8

0.0

93.1

8.7

4.0

3.5

7.4

0.0

4.3

6.0

8.3

0.5

0.7

Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement

Y/E March

OP/(Loss) before Tax

Depreciation

Interest & Finance Charges

Direct Taxes Paid

(Inc)/Dec in WC

CF from Operations

Others

CF from Operating incl EO

(Inc)/Dec in FA

Free Cash Flow

(Pur)/Sale of Investments

Others

CF from Investments

Issue of Shares

Inc/(Dec) in Debt

Interest Paid

Dividend Paid

Others

CF from Fin. Activity

Inc/Dec of Cash

Opening Balance

Closing Balance

E: MOFSL Estimates

FY14

156

-35

276

-14

262

-175

-37

-28

-240

-38

-7

-12

FY15

107

155

-46

-2

288

-12

276

-210

-12

-207

-72

-34

-21

-97

-28

FY16

128

174

-47

-4

338

-58

279

-271

-142

-118

-33

-15

-118

-1

FY17

198

-32

-27

311

-19

292

-384

-92

-1

-316

-59

-9

-4

-28

FY18

192

-14

311

-12

299

-267

-33

-260

-44

-33

-10

FY19

-17

213

110

-12

-55

239

-39

201

-305

-105

-277

106

-76

-47

FY20

-428

277

137

-23

-166

-203

384

181

-221

-40

-88

-300

462

-180

-110

-18

191

136

(INR Billion)

FY21E

318

141

-9

-132

349

-203

146

138

-60

-141

-61

228

131

358

FY22E

340

138

-27

276

822

-203

619

-198

-20

-138

-159

465

353

818

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

NOTES

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

Expected return (over 12-month)

BUY

>=15%

SELL

< - 10%

NEUTRAL

< - 10 % to 15%

UNDER REVIEW

Rating may undergo a change

NOT RATED

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within

following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

Disclosures

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the

Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial

products. MOFSL is a subsidiary company of Passionate Investment Management Pvt. Ltd.. (PIMPL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are

available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a

registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and

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Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are

available on the website at

http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf

MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and

buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other

compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have

any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the

specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even

though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report

MOFSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report

should be aware that MOFSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific

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website at

https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx

A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at

www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.

Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental

research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated

from MOFSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.

Regional Disclosures (outside India)

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability

or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.

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This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong

Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst

Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of

research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity

to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these

securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not

located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.

For U.S.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under

applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers

Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any

brokerage and investment services provided by MOFSL , including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is

intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as

"major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which

this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration

provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange

Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-

dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this

chaperoning agreement.

The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S.

registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public

appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

For Singapore

In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets

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Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL

in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”,

of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“the

SFA”). Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and

inform MOCMSPL.

Specific Disclosures

1 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.

2 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company

3 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months

4 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report

5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company

6 MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months

7 MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months

8 MOFSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months

9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report

10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company

19 May 2020

Bharti Airtel

********************************************************************************************************************************

The associates of MOFSL may have:

- financial interest in the subject company

- actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company

- received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months

- other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the

specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even

though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.

- acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months

- be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the

company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)

- received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.

The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report

Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not

consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from

clients which are not considered in above disclosures.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the

research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.

Terms & Conditions:

This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and

may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent

of MOFSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in

nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty,

representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The

report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial

instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as

customers by virtue of their receiving this report.

Disclaimer:

The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or

distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for

informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing

in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances.

The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment

objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this

document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this

document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views

expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade

securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of

the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and

should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make

modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from

time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to

perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a

separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of

information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or

may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,

directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or

entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,

regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in

all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost

revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.

The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its

affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such

misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages,

expenses that may be suffered by the person

accessing this information due to any errors and delays.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;

Website

www.motilaloswal.com.CIN

no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road,

Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.

Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:

INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company

Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth

Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is

a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.

Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.

Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no

assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance

Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.

* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National

Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.

19 May 2020