What’s old is new again. And what used to be young is now haulin’ in a mini-van. Sadly it’s all being set up for a rude awakening down the road.
Speaking of roads, the 401 is the country’s busiest highway, maybe even the globe’s worst freeway. In spots it’s twelve or sixteen lanes of honky, snarly, bitchy citizens with widly varying levels of driving skill and zero patience. Rush hour is every hour, except between 10 pm and 4 am. The relatively new 407 a few clicks to the north is a passable alternative, but not cheap. A brief 11-km trip can cost $4.50, which works out to $45 an hour.
Traveling into the 416 core from the depths of 905 can easily take sixty minutes by car, often considerably more. There’s always the GO train, but that ain’t cheap. A month of commuting from, say, Oakville to Toronto costs about $350.
So why would people move from where their jobs are to the hinterland, full of coyotes, weasels and desperate cougars? Just for the cheaper houses?
Well, forget that. While the average price of a detached house in Toronto has barely budged over the past six months (in the $1.2-$1.3 million range), the suburbs have gone nuts. The average detached digs in the 905 wilderness sells for just a hair under $950,000 – a stunning increase of 29% in the past year. And the disease is widespread. Houses in both Halton and Peel are up 21% year/year. In York, it’s a 27% gain, edging out Durham at 25%. Even in Orangeville and Simcoe Country, where people wear winter hats with flaps and drive trucks, the gains are 23% and 26% respectively.
It doesn’t stop there. Hamilton prices have been among the rompiest in the nation for the last two years, and even down into the Niagara Peninsula, where the locals are hammered on ice wine half the time, any property priced under a million is gone in days. Sometimes hours. “We just don’t know how to price things anymore,” one realtor told me. “This is beyond bizarre for this area.”
Despite the brutal commute, the expense of travel, the deadening ennui of living on a street with people just like you, baby trees and a Winners-Staples-Best Buy-WalMart- Home Depot big box plaza every few blocks, the burbs are hot. And not just around Toronto, of course. The same has happened outside the borders of urban Vancouver, with Burnaby, Richmond, Surrey, Langley and other cultural, retail-infested soulless hellholes swamped with buyers happy to push prices skyward. (Until the last few months, of course.)
The phenom has resulted from a limited supply of detached houses on the market in the cities, facing sustained demand by people who would rather pay a bunch more than spend much of their adult lives looking at taillights. Unable to afford the core, turned off by bidding wars or unwilling to wait any longer, young buyers have migrated outward, bringing city prices to the burbs. This has happened despite demographics. With Millennials now outnumbering Boomers, the common wisdom was that suburbia would slowly croak since the latte-sipping, vaping, Vespa crowd overwhelmingly favours urban life.
But that’s changing fast. Go for a drive to north Brampton, for example, and see miles after mile of new developments where detached houses start at $800,000 and easily rise through a million, being snapped up at sales centres by scruffy kids in whiskers and kneeless jeans. If they could buy downtown for five hundred more, they would. But buy, they must. So they suck it up and go suburban.
It’s probably a really bad idea. Not just because the places they’re purchasing are made of glue, particle board and fake bricks, but because they’re paying extreme prices at what’s likely the moment of peak house. There’s just so much wrong with a real estate purchase at this juncture, it’s hard to keep up. The mortgage changes announced at the beginning of October will have a substantial bite to both sales and prices. TD has launched the next round of mortgage increases as a result. By this time next year mortgage insurance will be more costly and less available. The US Fed is four weeks away from resuming its normalization of rates, starting a process which Canada cannot avoid. And our economy sucks so much the feds have to spend $80 billion they don’t have so people can dig holes and build bridges. And more commuter rail lines into the hub.
Hey, I didn’t even mention Trump.
The point is simple. If you’re going to fork over a million, do you really want a cookie-cutter box on a long curvy, boring street where you can’t walk to buy milk?
Here’s a better strategy. Rent. Wait. What’s coming will change it all.
240 comments ↓
Garth Is Good, Garth is Great!
Rick
“So why would people move from where their jobs are to the hinterland, full of coyotes, weasels and desperate cougars?”
I’ll move anywhere there are desperate cougars!
A million bucks should really get you a nice place, with some property attached to it, not a tear-down, dilapidated dump.
Sadly, in Willowdale, a million bucks won’t even buy you a tear-down any more.
Sigh…
Yup
Sunshine Coast is being bought up by people cashing out in the big city.
Selling 1 house in Vancouver will get 3 up there.
It’s working real good for the boomers.
Money left over.
Garth, have you ever stopped to think that maybe you are wrong on housing? I mean, come on , how long have prices been increasing?
Vancouver is boring and unattractive by metropolitan standards. There is nothing going on in Vancouver. Nothing that could compensate for the images of down and outers, druggies and other kind of homeless or nearly homeless everywhere on city streets. This is what Rio or Mexico City must have looked like before the Favelas started creeping up in the hills and plains around the million Dollar real estate.
Now escape that as a moist millenial because you can’t afford to live there and move to the burbs. Just so you stand in traffic for hours or squeeze onto skytrains and buses to get to that better paying job in Vancouver.
No thanks!
Something tells me “what’s coming” is going to really hurt and for some years to come
No Trump talk.
I’ll second that.
I heard several millenial tradesmen(electricians , plumbers, carpenters) on a site today at coffee time in Van-delusional discussing why they were renting vs buying.
The majority were on the same page.
They’re waiting…………..
The Alberta Treasury Branch came out and said the worst may be over for Alberta, they must have there rose coloured glasses on. If oil stays at current levels something must be done to deal with the probincial deficit, that will be the next shoe to drop, Housing prices have moved very little considering the number of people who have lost there jobs here, i expect more meaningful price drips in the near future, especially with the highest rental vacancy rate in ages.
It’s getting harder to rent in the GTA, especially with kids in a good school catchment. So messed up.
Even in the unlikely event that Janet (girl who cried wolf) Yellen does raise rates it is all but certain Canada won’t follow for all of 2017.
Poloz and Morneau will likely be happy to see the interest rate spread increase and push the Canadian dollar down to prop up a weak economy here.
Interest rates are going nowhere.
Democracy ~51% of the people control 49% of the people. If you are one of the 49% you are not free. (Aaron Russo)
America Freedom to Fascism
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6ayb02bwp0
Garth, as a former chief CRA tax man is there a Canadian law that says we have to pay taxes on our labour ? Where could I find info on this subject ?
At the end of the day, home is where the heart is.
I have made fun of Toronto pumpers in the past week but home, is home, wherever that may be. Also, you go where the work is. No matter how bad, it is still home.
I must admit Garth, reading your blog today brought back a lot of unpleasant images and a past real estate bubble when I was lving there.
I ended up renting in High Park, meters from the subway in a very nice town home and was glad for it in the end once the RE bubble burst. Had the money to buy but my gut said bubble.
Where I live now, just outside of Venice is wonderful, none of what you describe, at all and cheap gorgeous digs, laid back Italian lifestyle, scenic locations in every direction you care to look [and the food and wine are not bad either].
But like everyone else, I had to work to get here.
Seems you are hinting at the bubble there bursting, it will.
Reads like YVR RE before its crash recently.
bsant
Judge OK’s sale of Toronto’s Trump hotel-condo tower
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/trump-tower-toronto-1.3834368
A judge has given his approval for a receiver to supervise the sale of the Trump-branded hotel-condo tower in Toronto after the company that built the 65-storey building failed to make payments on its loans.
Justice Glenn Hainey of the Ontario Superior Court of Justice has named FTI Consulting Canada Inc. as the receiver for a sale of the building, after a request to do so from JCF Capital ULC, a private company that bought the debt on the project at the end of September.
The original developer, Talon International Inc., licensed the Trump brand and hired a Trump-owned company to manage it, but maintained ownership over the project that has been racked with delays, cost overruns and other problems since first breaking ground in 2007.
In a court filing, JCF alleges that Talon and related companies have been in default on the loan since at least July last year. They’re asking a judge to allow a sale of the property to recoup their investment. JCF also says it intends to offer a credit bid on the property, exchanging its debt for ownership if there are no better offers.
Housing – another failed experiment by politicians in Canada
Coming next…
More Massive federal and provincial spending
Carbon taxes to ease our guilt of living
Unaffordable green energy
Social license stifling growth
Infrastructure funded by pension dollars
Large future immigration increases
Voting changes to mess up a stable democracy
Legalizing mind altering drugs.
What could go wrong?
Thankfully, our resourcefulness and diversity will save us all.
What a sad nation, the once great Canada has become.
Because its 2016!
“The point is simple. If you’re going to fork over a million, do you really want a cookie-cutter box on a long curvy, boring street where you can’t walk to buy milk?”-Garth
It better look like this for a mil. and I here they consider reasonable low-balling offers down there so you might actually get it for 600K. Try telecommuting.
http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-1147-bbrp5z/windermere-beachfront-windermere-island-el
B.b.b.b.but all my friends have houses. Why can’t I have one?
Analysis: U.S. and Canadian housing bubbles more alike than people think
http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/analysis-u-s–and-canadian-housing-bubbles-more-alike-than-people-think-216483.aspx
In a contribution for Maclean’s, freelance journalist and financial observer Andrew Hepburn expressed bafflement at the chorus of voices (such as Moody’s and other specialists) declaring that the Canadian market will not fall into a U.S.-style recession any time soon.
Hepburn cited figures from the International House Price Database by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which found that, adjusted for inflation, Canadian home prices as of Q2 2016 are far more inflated compared to prices in the U.S. during the peak of its bubble in 2008.
“and desperate cougars?”
———————————-
Well, that’s one reason…
How is stupid enough to believe what a realtor has to say? They are proven untrustworthy and outright liars.
Sales are that good and prices are flat but we don’t know the real numbers since they keep it secret. Open MLS and exposed the fraud called realtor.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/real-estate-agents-breaking-the-rules-marketplace-hidden-camera-investigation-1.3833572
Well, now you know why so many people have signed up for a one way trip to Mars.
Rent is getting out of control in Toronto already.
gypsykid on 11.03.16 at 6:55 pm
It’s getting harder to rent in the GTA, especially with kids in a good school catchment. So messed up.
—————————————————————–
It’s very easy to rent with lots and lots of empty places to rent. Don’t you get tired lying?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/real-estate-agents-breaking-the-rules-marketplace-hidden-camera-investigation-1.3833572
25% year over year gains are awesome
Especially with 20% or less down.
Leverage is awesome and when you’re up, you feel like a champion. You feel rich. You buy a new car. Go to Hawaii. Eat at fancy restaurants.
But when it goes the other way, panic sets in very fast.
And in Calgary. Young people keep buying as more lose their jobs and can barely afford the up keep on a home. I had a guy tell me his home has hail damage but can’t afford the $2500 insurance deductible to have them replace his roof, siding and eavestrough…. a $20,000 job. An amazing return on investment yet he does not have $2500 to invest… but probably has money for beer.
Been waiting for years for the prices to cool off in Sauga. Hasn’t happened yet… Will the prices will come down in 2017? not sure
Not sure if it was worth the wait. Some of my family members’ houses have doubled in value in a few short years but my portfolio is only up about 10% give or take.
YVR downtown, English Bay, Stanley Park, Grouse Mountain…there is nothing scenic like that in Canada, not even close.
Unfortunately, unless you are made of money or bought downtown 85 years ago, you can only visit instead of live there. And rents in the downtown, last time I checked, are beyond ridiculous.
To get there, enjoy the ever sputtering SkyTrain or endure Toronto rush hour style traffic near 24/7.
As for the rest, the YVR burbs are no different than burbs anywhere else in Canada other than it rains more with little or no snow.
Other than its scenery, YVR has little else to offer that you cannot find in any other Canadian city, well, other than a lot of 420 shops.
Why I left.
Sunshine Coast is in the middle of nowhere.
You may as well be living on the Pacific Trail or some other hinterland like that. At some point, you crave civilization and commuting to YVR is not cheap:
Ferry fare, return trip, full fare, is about $65 for a car and driver, and about $50 if you pre-load an Experience Card. Passenger only fare about $15 or $11. Add your bus fares to that, and/or gas cost.
Make that a day trip and a slow one at that.
Most people would go stir crazy there, I know I would. You will save on housing but spend it all on transportation to civilization, some Boomer retirement plan on a pension that is.
bsant
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiM6-7G343QAhUljlQKHULfABMQFggyMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.macleans.ca%2Feconomy%2Feconomicanalysis%2Fchinese-real-estate-investors-are-reshaping-the-market%2F&usg=AFQjCNHf6J24T_O7sZw2q-cSthQ3Bmf4rw&sig2=R5RcXhR_R1psNKi2gUdd_g
Income Tax Act
R.S.C., 1985, c. 1 (5th Supp
Liability for Tax
Marginal note:Tax payable by persons resident in Canada
2 (1) An income tax shall be paid, as required by this Act, on the taxable income for each taxation year of every person resident in Canada at any time in the year.
————————————
Years ago I had a friend who worked contract (no tax deducted on cheques) until one day the RCMP hauled him away . That’s the day he learned he was part of the 49%.
Good news from Sherway Gardens Mall. At the Bay today Skechers for Ladies retail for $60 Cad and the same shoe in the states is $60 U.S. so if this pricing goes mainstream cross border shopping and the border wait lines are history. Of course, Skechers is having a CROCS moment.
The 90 toll road through New York state starting in Buffalo and ending in Mass. takes almost two days drive for approx. $20….
Ottawa is bent on its infrastructure theme but has not been too forthcoming on the “Financial Wizardry” or the “Lobbyists” queuing up for such a banquet of capital projects.
Brilliance tonight Gartho.
“and desperate cougars”
I can’t stop laughing…
I do believe I am a 52 year old cougar
I don’t understand it but this is not peak housing to me more like a ponzi or pyramid scheme. the only thing that will save people from their mistakes will be to cut back on everything possible when everything settles down which won’t be good for the economy in general. So my only conclusion would be a long recession for Canada while every other country that housing reverted back will only have short recessions ,maybe two years or less but here in Canada will be more like 5 years plus
Hey Garth, why are you not a realtor?
Lbr sincerely
#179 Brokerizer on 11.03.16 at 6:19 pm
“This is in french so few of you will understand, so I’ll translate:
Comparing to 2015, there’s been an increase of 17% amazing percents of house borrowers getting notices from the banks, in Quebec. Notices that warn the borrower that he/she has missed payments or has broken a clause. Something like that.
Most people here care for Vancouver and Toronto, but I hope Garth can read this and write a little something in his next blog.”
It’s a turning point:
http://www.lesaffaires.com/blogues/joanie-fontaine/bond-important-mauvaises-creances-immobilieres-octobre/591268”
I can read French and that was an interesting article, thanks. I see also that these notices from the banks for late payment are at their highest level since they started compiling data for this in 2009. And the writer worries that they may increase more in the short term following the new mortgage rules. Quebec real estate does not look like a good bet right now.
If square footage and the new house feeling are top priorities, then there is no doubt that you get better bang for your buck out in the 905. This, of course, does not take into consideration potential commuting costs and other intangibles.
Give me a smaller double bricked 416 house and a short commute any day of the week.
-10 minute commute to work.
-15 minute drive to Yonge & Bloor during rush our. 10 minutes without rush-our.
-10 minute walk to Starbucks.
-2 minute drive to my parent’s house.
-10 minute commute to my in-laws.
-15 minute commute to work for my wife. I can do it 10.
As a road cyclist, I am envious about the 905ers being a few blocks away from great cycling and beautiful scenery.
Can’t have it all.
You want to tax WHAT?
#12 Doghouse Dweller on 11.03.16 at 6:59 pm asked:
Garth, as a former chief CRA tax man is there a Canadian law that says we have to pay taxes on our labour ? Where could I find info on this subject ?
**************************************
Admittedly, I have not checked with Google, but one might start the search with something along the lines of “Income Tax Act”.
But there is no tax on unpaid labour such as what you do around your own house or when you volunteer.
Obviously, if you come across any sites that claim income taxes are illegal, immoral or just fattening, RUN!
Garth sir, is it a possibility that house prices will ever come down from where they are to historic norms. Even a 30 % drop if happens is still unaffordable. Is it time to change the benchmark for valued ‘right’
When Trump wins, the market dives (temporarily or not, doesn’t matter) and Yellen won’t raise rates because of “uncertainty”. Watch.
See? I can make myself sound certain of uncertain events, too.
Book update for the 100 or so people that care.
It’s going live Nov 7th a day before the election of President Trump.
Now to get my publisher to get it into ebook format the bugger wanted 1500 bucks. I tricked the basterd, showed him my 300k visits on my blog, then sent him here showing all my smoking posts. Said greaterfool gets 100 million unique views a month. Ha. Told him to pick up the cost, and I’ll cut you in. We signed a contract.
So the lowest I can go on the 7th is 5 bucks, I figure I’ll sell a hundred max. My cut depending on were you buy it will be from a 1 to 2 dollars.
Now if your a regular blog dog going through hard times, send me a selfie showing you giving a homeless bugger a loony or a pocket change.
I’ll send you a free copy.
That’s the best I can do.
My publisher is an idiot. The art of the deal people.
Now if it sells more than 200 copies, then I fk up.
When am I wrong… Ha.
Driving from small town southern Ontario to a friend’s cottage near Huntsville, we would travel the 407…
Hearing my friend start screaming when the first of many endless stretches of cookie cutter, no back yard, soul less housing came into view was almost as good as 3 days of relaxing lake side..
Quality of life? Lemmings 101
My wife’s employer recently “sent her home”. So now her commute is about 20 feet from the bedroom to her office. It seems to work swimmingly, she maybe goes into the office once a week and she says that’s her least productive day. There are lots of benefits for her including not paying for transit, not paying for parking, not needing such a large wardrobe, and not having to pay for restaurant lunches. There are benefits for her employer too: She is available longer since she’s not sitting on a train, they don’t have to pay for her office space, and I pay to power the computer and monitors.
I don’t know why more employers haven’t grabbed on to this model. If they did, the 401 might not be so congested. And here’s a note to Glamboy: Let the internet do it’s job and we won’t need so many new roads. Commuting to work is so 2000’s unless you have to do something physical like a personal meeting or clean the washrooms.
Even the New York Stock Exchange is pretty free of traders these days. Most everyone trades online. Get behind it.
It’s interesting to think this trend forward another 10 to 20 years. Our economy and indeed our cities and factories were all designed around the car and the need for workers to be located in close proximity so the secretary could pass the memos around. When computers first came out the office was still required so they could all be plugged in to the same server via wires. Now, we have secure internet connections that are just as fast, Skype type services, and full office from home capabilities. The implications are profound but it’s been a lot slower to pick up than I would have thought. It will come though.
The first conclusion is that there are 2 areas that are not good long term investments: Downtown real estate and automotives.
Sure, we will always have cars (we still have horses!), but if people don’t have to drive them to work (and park them in a garage) they will last twice as long. Cars will be for driving kids to soccer and getting groceries. Prediction: Automotive production could fall by half in the next 10-20 years.
Sure, we will always have the downtown core as well, sometimes you just have to meet face to face. But we probably already have as much square footage down there as we will ever need. Once the old guard of Garth-aged executives move out of the corner office, it will be pretty clear to the younger folks that it is not only cheaper but it offers better lifestyle (due to the lack of a commute) to embrace “the office of the future” and make the employee pay for their own office (except the computer). For most employees this is a small price to pay to avoid commuting. You are heating the “bonus room” anyway. Throw a desk in it. You already have internet because of all that porn you are watching. You already have a computer for every person in the house. Embrace it and leave the car in the garage.
Many changes are coming both to the way we live and to the way we work. Justin is proposing to build out a 1960’s infrastructure in a 2020’s world. He’s a damn fool. He should be building fiber optics, not highways.
I don’t get it. Quantity over quality. People want the big house and sacrifice everything to get it. I will take renting a concrete condo walking distance to everything any day over the big sawdust house in the burbs.
The average detached digs in the 905 wilderness sells for just a hair under $950,000 – a stunning increase of 29% in the past year.
What the hell is WRONG with ppl in Toronto burbs???
#2 JSS:- Be careful what you wish for in search of a cougar. ” Some men like shiny new toys. Others like the priceless antique. ” – Donna Lynn Hope
Canadian home prices as of Q2 2016 are far more inflated compared to prices in the U.S. during the peak of its bubble in 2008
Yabbut we don’t slice and dice our mortgages. And we don’t have derivatives to bet on proxies of the housing market
Has the feel of a blow off top dun it
What a surprise!
According to a new report commissioned by Vancity credit union:
97 per cent of British Columbians are involved in the second-hand market, either buying, selling or donating used goods.
The report estimates the second-hand economy in the province totals about $1 billion a year in sales.
The report found that 83 per cent of British Columbians have bought second-hand goods, 72 per cent have sold used goods, and 95 per cent have given away or donated used goods.
According to the report, 45 per cent of British Columbians use the money from selling their used goods to pay for basic living costs such as bills, rent or mortgage.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-second-hand-1.3834002
All valid points (as usual) Garth.
Except one about commuting. ALOT of people are shifting to working from home, varying from 1 day a week to all of them. And it’s happening quickly, and in droves. In addition alot of employees who meet clients, go straight to site and usually can avoid the peak hours and epic congestion. Con-incidentally it the EMPLOYERS that are also a fan of this (it’s great to downsize office space and transfer that cost to the employees right? Win Win)
The days of having to be at the office for 8.30 will soon be over. And for those who can manage most/all of their time remotely – they will buy houses where they want to live. Living near a city will not always be desirable.
My (personal, unfounded, pie-in-the-sky) predication is that houses in better locations with better schools (not geographically related to work) will get more expensive. And in very unusual places too.
Get out of the city early, beat the rush.
Yes. Garth, thanks, you just made a great day even better.
I was out enjoying the sunshine on my 5 mile walk along the paths and up and down the hills and stairs of the river valley. No cougars, just fit and smiling young women out for a run.
I see and hear it all as I live at the edge of the core. It’s full of beautiful young women renting posh high rises, like the one I live in. They travel, drive expensive SUV’s, Beemers, sports cars, and enjoy the sex in the city lifestyle, until they are ready to settle down with Mr. Wonderful who is going to fall madly in love with them and give them everything they are entitled to.
Yes. When the young women want to nest, the love/lust struck young men follow along and do whatever she wants. All the way to the suburban hell you described. When they come to, it’s too late.
Seen it all before from my generations flower power, peace loving, pot smoking, long haired, anti-establishment, once idealistic young Boomers.
Every generation, except for a few free thinkers, are all the same. Garth just described it perfectly.
007
Freedom First
PHD Freedomonics
45 Context on 11.03.16 at 8:10 pm
#2 JSS:- Be careful what you wish for in search of a cougar. ” Some men like shiny new toys. Others like the priceless antique. ” – Donna Lynn Hope
…
Drunken toothless bald buggers would settle for anything that can fog a mirror.
I really got to start counting my days when I stay at Seneca, now that my TN expired. I’ve been here more than home since my last one expired on Sept 27th.
The pit falls of forced retirement because your an idiot with a big thumb.
With all due respect, you speak about renting like it’s some magical utopian paradise where nothing ever goes wrong, where landlords are fantastic, where previous tenants took care of the units, and where rental laws are in someway fair to renters.
In the last four years my family and I (myself, wife, two kids) have moved fives times. Five moves. Four years. The stress that comes with that with having a family is extreme.
The new place we were supposed to move to turned into a disaster as the previous tenant destroyed the place. So we’re lucky that we can stay in our current place, now, with another FIXED TERM lease where the landlord can jack up the rent to whatever they feel like at the end of the term, since this is Vancouver BEST PLACE ON EARTH yadda yadda yadda so one must feel fortunate to pay an extra $300 a month in rent every year.
There are no rights for renters and finding a three bedroom under $3500 a month that isn’t an EXECUTIVE BASEMENT suite is like finding a magical unicorn. Forget it.
Do you not understand why people want security in their housing? If they own it, it’s theirs. So what if the value drops? THEY HAVE A HOME. They don’t have to keep moving every few years. They have security for their family.
I don’t think any of this goes into your thought process when you right about the mystique of renting.
Renting sucks. I hate it. I rather have spiders lay their eggs in my brain than have to move again. Stop thinking like a rich white man and think like the common man that just wants a forever home to live in for his family.
Sick of it.
Suggest you put more effort into researching your next rental. I lease a great place in the city.– Garth
So true Garth so true.
Wild Bill throw the mortgage brokers a doggie biscuit, original the new rules took effect Oct 17, at the last minute, they tweaked the regs a bit, if the deal closed by end of Oct and the closing was completed by May, the deals would stand– setting of a fast dash to close deals before the end of the month. The same will occur in Nov as its the last month for those with 20% to bypass the stress test.
The burbs are a bad choice for most- the value is not there as it once was. Brampton has very high property taxes (for way less service), one if not the highest auto insurance rates in Ontario, less services and guaranteed traffic.
You have to factor in cost of transportation- extra car and insurance and maintenance costs. Yes GO is great but its not cheap and only really works if you work in Downtown Toronto proper.
The value proposition is just not there, the burbs are the areas where the marginal buyers are- they are most susceptible to economic downturns and in a decling market get hit first and the hardest as without the hysteria, unless they are substantially cheaper there is no reason to buy there
Toronto C4 C3627002
$2,850,000 earlier this summer
$2,748,000 next price listing
$2,688,800 current price listing
Those realtors are SO inventive. Going after that mainlander target market, once again! C4 had lots of double eights months back, then, few, or none. Now, revisiting that theme! You go, realtors
Triple 8s.
So, one thing for sure now: the LISTING prices are crashing but that does not mean the selling prices are crashing. (However, the Open Houses in C4 have been relentless.)
I have my Vancouver charts up with the corrected data points that the VREB screwed up on:
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html
There is a tight rolling top (roller coaster?) on all 3 sectors now (SFD, T-House and Condo)
Res-Listings down 51% from JUN 2012 high
Res-Sales down 57% from MAR 2016 high
Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 24%
Current Months of Inventory = 4
Vancouver SF Detached Price
Down 2.1% from JUL 2016 Peak
Vancouver Town-House Price
Down 1.2% from AUG 2016 Peak
T-Houses are priced at 43% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 2.3 Townhouses
Vancouver Condo Price
Down 0.4% from AUG 2016 Peak
Condos are priced at 33% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 3.0 Condos
King City, what was once Horse country for the gentrified, is now being the place to move to escape Vaughan. 5000 sqft McMansions on smallish lots now start at $2mill. This is a place where there is daily gridlock on 2 lane country roads. Where commuting is sitting at a standstill on a congested gravel road with dairy cows chewing grass in a field. Maseratis and Cayenne’s are the vehicles of choice. Everyone is excited that a Coppa grocery store opened. Because the nearest grocery store closest to your $3mill upgraded castle was a 35 minute drive away…otherwise it’s was chips & pop for dinner from the Esso station. To get from subdivisions north of concession 16 on any main King North/south artery, just to get to King Road, can be 30 min in gridlock. A drive that would/should take less than 5 min. The insanity continues.
In the late 80’s I travelled like the mindless thousands of others on the GO train from Oakville to Toronto to work in one of those faceless and heartless investment firms. Day in Day out – wishing for the weekend to arrive to recharge for another onslaught of 5 dreary days yet again in the City of despair. Then by chance, we stumbled upon an opportunity to buy a detached home in Barrie (1 hour north of Toronto) where trees and grass actually existed. Where a wonderful lake was just a 5 minute commute and plenty of outdoor activities just a short commute away. I always hoped that Barrie wouldn’t be noticed as we wanted the small town feel but sadly the past 10 years the city has been on a tear, building on prime farm land, squeezing homes which started off on 50 foot lots down to 25-30 foot lots today. I grew up in Toronto, and when I head down to meet up with old friends I am shocked how much the city has changed – its faceless, dirty, segregated from the haves and have nots. I believe humans were never meant to be living in such confined spaces and I am truly thankful that though my City has dealt with some growing pains – I do pause and wonder what Garth is thinking as he gently mocks the burbs! Maybe he should stop and hug a tree, life isn’t all about money and net worth. Live simple, you’ll live longer and actually be happy of the simple and free things life has to offer!! |Garth, fantastic blog –
Detached homes rising because of immigration:
2016 stats projections:
314,000 Perm Immigrants
95,000 TFW new entries
198,000 International Mobility Program new entries
30,000 Supervisa new entries
172,000 Foreign student new entries
1,200,000 ten year visitor visas issued.
Need more reasons why?
#32 Fish on 11.03.16 at 7:46 pm
I do believe I am a 52 year old cougar
==============
Once a cougar hits 50 she becomes a puma.
Rents are going to get very expensive in Toronto. Projecting 20% year over year increases.
Re mortgage insurance.
Would the Feds ever “spin off” CMHC as an IPO?
At least then only the investors who wanted to invest in it would be paying for the risk, versus taxpayers in the current system.
“25% year over year gains are awesome “
Only problem is, nearly the entirety of the alleged “gain” as reported by the Realtors was mix shift driven. Individual houses stagnated and actually declined went down in 905 and 416 YoY. But with the lower tricile mostly out of the picture (little to no credit availability for first time buyers), and panic starting to form at the upper end, the stuff the Realtors are transacting in has become far more upmarket than in the past.
Its unfortunate that the media continues to misrepresent and not report on sales mix shifts as dramatic as seen in Canada. But what can we expect since the media is basically bought and paid for by the RE industry and its benefactors these days. For instance, a quick Google search of either the Globe and Mail or the Toronto Star indicates almost no mention of ‘sales mix’ with respect to RE. Its almost like they copy the Realtor press releases verbatim, without bothering to do any critical analysis.
https://www.google.ca/#q=globeandmail+%22sales+mix%22
https://www.google.ca/#q=torontostar+%22sales+mix%22
Strange, isn’t it, the authors at those two newspapers talk about sales mixes when it comes to publicly traded businesses. But heaven forbid, its almost like talking about the sales mix, and impact of the sales mix on Realtor reported ‘average prices’ is some sort of 3rd rail in Canada. Pretty sad, but a pretty big delusion they’re feeding since prices are actually declining in both Toronto/Vancouver at this point on individual units after 3 years of stagnation in the wake of CMHC 2013 changes.
Just tweeted butts.
@gmbutts ha your tel number in WikiLeaks, little meetings with Hillary. My book is out on the 7th. It explains why your mind is flipped.
True freedom can only be had when you truly give no shit. What a wonderful and strange place to be.
Don’t wait for your death bed to do it dogs.
Live life large when your vulnerable.
Man it feels so good.
If house average is $800,000 and say couples save $50,000 for a downpayment how on earth can they afford a $750,000 mortgage?They must big wage earners in GTA and YVR.These cities must make triple the wages of Americans.High wages reflect the higher prices of today.Welcome to the boomtown.Very successfull millienals.
This will all come to pass…as they said when the other bubble burst and all we got was a collection of texts trying to forge a new narrative.
Another hat trick for Toronto housing prices:
Chart: http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html
Res-Listings down 53% from MAY 2013 high
Res-Sales down 24% from MAY 2016 high
Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 92%
Current Months of Inventory = 1
Toronto SF Detached Price
NEW PEAK PRICE OCT 2016
Toronto Town-House Price
NEW PEAK PRICE OCT 2016
T-Houses are priced at 57% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.8 Townhouses
Toronto Condo Price
NEW PEAK PRICE OCT 2016
Condos are priced at 42% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 2.4 Condos
“So, one thing for sure now: the LISTING prices are crashing but that does not mean the selling prices are crashing. (However, the Open Houses in C4 have been relentless.)”
Is it even possible for selling prices to not crash when listing prices are crashing? Especially when we have the Realtors running around (with about as much credibility as the Iraqi Minister of Information, I might add) trying to convince everyone that prices are up?
Doesn’t pass the smell test at all.
Rents are going to get very expensive in Toronto. Projecting 20% year over year increases.
Highly doubtful. There are far more units in the pipeline than there is population growth. A theme that has persisted for years.
If they own it, it’s theirs. So what if the value drops? THEY HAVE A HOME.
If the value drops, the banks demands a dramatically higher risk premia in anticipation of further drops. We are seeing this reality unfold, with TD raising their “Prime” mortgage rate yesterday. Abnormally inexpensive mortgage credit, even on a spread basis against risk-free rates, will continue to increase so as to return to the long-term mean with overshoot. In the 80s and 90s, it was unheard for a retail borrower to obtain credit of any kind for less than prime (ie: superprime rates). Now we have the sheer absurdity of people obtaining superprime rates against subprime credit through the CMHC. Even if BoC policy rates go nowhere, consumers are very likely to be paying a lot more for mortgage credit in the months and years to come as mortgage lending goes out of favour. A natural response of the banking system to collateral that is losing value and is now approaching physical oversupply.
My comparison of Vancouver and Toronto housing chart:
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html
FOMO is the driver in the GTA. Take a look at Vancouver and see the future.
Higher Average Prices in Vancouver than GTA:
49% more for a SFD
14% more for a Town House
19% more for a Condo
More Listings & Sales in GTA than Vancouver:
1.2 x more Listings & 4.4 x more Sales
Monthly Absorption Rate GTA:VAN = 3.8:1
Ratio of SFD to Strata
1 VAN SFD = 2.3 VAN Town Houses
1 GTA SFD = 1.8 GTA Town Houses
1 VAN SFD = 3.0 VAN Condos
1 GTA SFD = 2.4 GTA Condos
Earners needed to buy an average SFD:
VAN = 5.5 and GTA = 3.4 earners
10 Year SFD Inflation Rate:
VAN = 138% and GTA = 133%
AUG 2016 Average Earnings:
BC = $48,044 /yr up 17% since Pit of Gloom
ON = $50,884 /yr up 19% since Pit of Gloom
Is it safe to start posting it’s-happening.jpg?
Feels like it’s starting.
Rent for now as there is something blowing in the wind and the storm will last 5 years or much longer so what to do? You certainly would never consider buying a home at the top of the bubble and if you are, assume your sitting on cash to invest. You might even be in a position to live rent free with dividends rolling in. The first thing is to do your homework and look at your travel vectors on a daily basis, as you might want to stay where you are. Of course your not renting a condo now or in the future because you have no guarantee of a renewal, whereas, a real apartment building is an investment and usually a part of a real estate portfolio. You might consider a relocation for the long term with better facilities, transportation, and goods and services at hand. Do not sit on the fence but do something now before its too late which involves homework and discovery.
My brother-in-law had a house on the edge of Mississauga and Brampton (off the 407) and sold it to buy a McMansion in NW Brampton a 15 min drive to Georgetown. HUGGEE house with window overlooking a fake pond/lake.
To afford it, his parents sold their condo and moved into the basement. His mother sunk a huge chunk of her retirement savings into the house.
Last March I was over there and he was enthusiastically telling me how much it was going to go up in value. I believe he payed 650,000 – 700,000.
Fast forward to this year, his wife may be leaving him taking a 80k city job along with her. No way he can carry the place himself. The elderly parents will be screwed too.
It’s so sad what property does to people.
“Would the Feds ever “spin off” CMHC as an IPO?”
If they could, they would. The problem with the CMHC is that, with the sort of subprime mortgages they insure, only 5X leverage on their capital is appropriate. So for $900B of guarantees, they need approximately $180B of capital to backstop such.
CMHC currently has approximately $25B of capital on the books. So the entity is deficient $155B.
Just who exactly would buy what effectively is a bank with a capital deficiency of $155B, and the ability to earn, with premiums, a few billion dollars a year? Nobody.
Additionally, just because the CMHC was IPO’ed wouldn’t necessarily relieve the Government of Canada of the liabilities associated with the guarantees. The sort of guarantee the CMHC provides is sovereign, that of the Government of Canada. The banks who bought the CMHC subprime mortgage insurance to protect their interests would take the government to court to block the sale and the attack on the quality of the insurance they legitimately bought and paid for against subprime mortgages.
In essence, selling the CMHC and somehow watering down the guarantee of 100% (or 90% in the case of the re-insurance) repayment would be viewed by the market as a sovereign default. The GoC’s borrowing costs would explode. The banks would completely stop lending and plunge the country into economic crisis.
Already, you can think of TD’s move the other day, to arbitrarily raise rates specifically against mortgages, as a sort of warning shot to the government. The appropriate metaphor is “mutually assured destruction” (ie: from the Cold War), where if the government tries to destroy the banks, the banks will destroy the housing market by ceasing lending and reverting the housing market to all-cash valuations. Flaherty, and now Morneau, are walking a fine rope and hopefully will achieve a controlled demolition of the housing market without too much fall-out now that it is over 3 years beyond peak.
Every time i get looped. Or on my way to getting looped.
Why dose this song keep bouncing between my ears inside my skull?
https://youtu.be/tAGnKpE4NCI
In other places I have lived in had two things that toronto lacks:
1) better and cheaper train transit… when I was in the UK I was able to get to work for not that much… the equivalent of the cost of a coffee and a muffin.
2) better radio… getting stuck in the states allows you to listen to some npr (when radiolab is on and its one of their better episodes its almost a treat to be stuck in traffic, and often marketplace is entertaining).
For all the desperate cougar lovin blog dogs:
https://youtu.be/LuyS9M8T03A?list=RDEMxDKOjE822YXjF__Z-JUckQ
3,000,000 more people will live in Canada by 2025. Half of those (about the population of Montreal) will settle in the GTA.
Outcome of the election will be rather boring, no matter who wins.
Gridlock is a certainty, either way.
That’s actually really good news. The less politicians are allowed to mess things up, the better.
Whatever short term market reaction is will revert back to current levels in a few months. No big deal. (Unless some idiot decides they absolutely must shoot down some Russian aircraft in Syria, then all bets are off).
The real story of these elections is the behind the scenes action. As some have mentioned, the FBI is acting in extraordinary ways, a mutiny, in fact.
Add to that WikiLeaks exposing the behind the scenes shenanigans at the highest levels, and enough bizarre coincidences to give conspiracy theorists fodder for another 100 years.
I think SM should write a book about it. It’s the most fascinating story (if you have been following along the backstory) I’ve ever come across, fiction or otherwise.
Here’s the short summary of the (true) story: Bunch of goofy kids online stumble across some leaked info that the mainstream media refuses to cover (it’s not flattering to their favoured candidate).
They think they are on to something, but aren’t sure, until the FBI takes some extraordinary measures (releasing a slew of seemingly unrelated documents all of a sudden, in an unprecedented manner) in order to signal the kids that they are on the right track.
Mainstream media are all scratching their heads as to why the FBI did this, but the online kids all recognize the signal. It is too bizarre to be real, but cannot be explained by coincidence. Further events confirm that the FBI is indeed trying to point the kids in the direction the FBI has gone, but has not been able to go public with.
Astonished kids realize their fun and games have now turned serious, and could determine the results of the election, and perhaps be even bigger than that and they start to see their rather amateurish sleuthing being mentioned on the evening news and by Julian Assange himself.
It’s hilarious and serious all at the same time.
When it dawns on the kids that the FBI is communicating to them covertly, there is a lot of excitement , but one of the kids remarks: “This sounds like a lot of pressure, can we just go back to shitposting (having fun posting nonsense)?”
I might have to write the book myself, although no one will ever believe it’s not fiction.
The day after my book gets published.
https://youtu.be/3x2ABSAMVno
Any one here in there 30s that grew up in the Gta? Remember the neighborhood you grew up in. I bet 95% of you can’t afford to live there. Most my friends can’t. Lucky some of their parents have houses paid off. Where are Gta parents supposed to go? No one is moving. Florida? Good luck with that. Most canadian parents will ” retire” in the Gta. Canadians are stuck in the Gta. You have no where else to go.
DELETED
Modern liberalism is killing the western world. Look at Europe. “Progressive” rule there has effectively surrendered to outsider conquerors. Draw your own conclusions however you cannot refute facts. The same is happening here right now under our “progressive” governments i.e. Wynne, Notley, Trudeau et al.
Running HUGE deficits at all three level of governments, lying and spreading disinformation (carbon tax, ozone layer, etc) while creating ZERO jobs while no foreign corporations invest here due to our high tax rates is WORSE than any real estate collapse or downward spiral.
Canadians are screwed. Done. Get used to mcjobs or walmart careers. Interest rates staying low is a major indication of the emasculation of the west.
Justin is so cute with selfies.
So cute.
While we go broke.
Writing a book about how the sun reflected of the newly stained varniched chair. ..
Please …..I want to read books on how the snipers bullet heading for my right eye felt at the moment of contact.
Quit school children . Let the dyslexic smoking man show you how its done.
If your a hot female. I’m week no charge. Living in a fake world of lunnacy.
So under rated.
Why am I so dis respected?
Teachers programming is what comes to mind.
I have the Calgary and the momentum chart up now:
Calgary: http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html
Momentum: http://www.chpc.biz/housing-price-momentum.html
Calgary, and the TSX Real Estate Index are both behaving rationally. Vancouver is abandoning its irrational exuberance model while Toronto is still hyped and going for it.
“#73 Smoking Man on 11.03.16 at 9:30 pm
Every time i get looped. Or on my way to getting looped.
Why dose this song keep bouncing between my ears inside my skull?”
————————
Because you are a drunk.
“The US Fed is four weeks away from resuming its normalization of rates.”- Garth
Or declaring Marshall law. – Conan
” Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.” Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach
“so people can dig holes” and then fill them in.
11km for $4.50 on the 407? You should try it as a non-resident without a transponder: more like $20.
The Nature Boy on 11.03.16 at 10:07 pm
“#73 Smoking Man on 11.03.16 at 9:30 pm
Every time i get looped. Or on my way to getting looped.
Why dose this song keep bouncing between my ears inside my skull?”
————————
Becaue you are a drunk.
…
Much better place to be than a rule following suck up. Please more soup sir. Oliver the movie.
I got it at 6 years old watching it. You are doomed, whats it l8ke living on your knees. A writer with no concept ot that wants to know.
@#46 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.03.16 at 8:12 pm
Canadian home prices as of Q2 2016 are far more inflated compared to prices in the U.S. during the peak of its bubble in 2008
Yabbut we don’t slice and dice our mortgages. And we don’t have derivatives to bet on proxies of the housing market
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Maybe, we don’t? MARK may have an answer to that. But I know for sure that we have all our mortgages in adjustable form, with what they would call down south TEASER RATES. Massive fubar is coming when reality will hit Canadian windshield. Not so special after all.
Speaking of bridges, you gotta believe a Sunshine Coast->North Shore/Vancouver fixed link will be soon be announced (2017?) & built (2022-23 completion?).
So many dots lining up.
just saw on cp24 treb says the avg price increase is just over 20%…proably not true but it’s still going up. I highly doubt that with interest rates rising there will be a meaningful drop. sold my house in 2013 and totally regret it…
As long as your not starving to death it’s all good.
Its 7:26 pm just drove back from North Vancouver to East Vancouver, took one hour to cover a 6 km journey. There seems to be a continual amount of fender benders daily in the GVR. Drivers are totally stressed and with road rage on the rampant takes a lot longer to get anyway in the GVR these days. Beats me why folks think Vancouver is so great , kind of past tense it was fabulous 1o to 15 yrs ago but with the massive densification its losing its glow !!
I moved away from N.Van to live in East Van. to avoid mainly the bridges about 9 mths ago after selling my home and with avoiding gridlock on the 2 bridges and now renting I have never slept so well ,life is good.
#46 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.03.16 at 8:12 pm
“Yabbut we don’t slice and dice our mortgages.”
Um – Mortgage backed securities mean anything to you?
http://www.tdcanadatrust.com/planning/investing-basics/investment-options/fixed-income-investments/icrcipmb.jsp
“…fully-guaranteed by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)…
Safest Canadian investments available in Canada, *regardless of the size of the investment*.”
What could possibly go wrong?
When I buzzed deep purple at the lake in the 70s
Creativity is everything.
https://youtu.be/zUwEIt9ez7M
#37 InvestorsFriend
There is no tax on unpaid labour such as what you do around your own house .
——————————————-
And that`s a large part of what has been driving the house flipper economy.
A down payment from the Bank of Mom , No tax on your labour and no capital gain at selling time. Sweet !
Problem now is the cost of materials. Home Depot knows what`s going on and demanding their pound of flesh. $3.10 a foot for pressed cardboard trim and $50 a gallon for paint. And Garth is talking about a .Gov crackdown probably to include a Lawn mower license, insurance and helmet law.
To Hillary.
Good fight. Chics want to say chics sizzers rule .not as much fun you think it is.
To you put up a great fight.
https://youtu.be/8SbUC-UaAxE
Wynee is next.
The human. We just want to be loved and loved back.
Then teachers are invented by the power hungry.
Does no one see that. Probably not. Hence drinking.
Im so under rated.
This real estate obsession is a disease. In my neighborhood (Leslie and Lawrence), 2 tear downs (95 ft frontage) were sold recently, one for 3.5 mil, the other 3.6 mil. The buyers will regret.
RE: #73 Smoking Man on 11.03.16 at 9:30 pm
Because you are chasing rainbows?
Kermit the Frog and Debbie Harry( tonight’s official cougar) will explain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0Hd3uWKFKY
FOMO is the driver in the GTA.
Vancouver is abandoning its irrational exuberance model while Toronto is still hyped and going for it.
Good observations and charts Brian. Toronto real estate prices keep shooting skyward. People love to live in Toronto. Best city in Canada!
CAD$ will only drop by 3 pennies against the US$ next year
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/11/02/canadian-dollar-value_n_12774844.html
That’s not too bad
To the pilots od the sky
https://youtu.be/BP0IX0Or9O8U
#59 Victor V on 11.03.16 at 8:51 pm
better yet ‘harpoon’
Hey Smoking Man, I’ll buy your book if you want to meet up at the Shell station on the corner of Horner and Brown’s Line. I got ten bucks, cash.
It ain’t over til Rosie sings..
Billary wins by one small state. Trumpeter demands a recount….. hanging weiners everywhere… goes to supreme court… but there are only 8 of them .. since the teabaggers have refused to appoint Obama’s choice… and so it ends up 4-4…
Preppers weep for joy as total anarchy reigns
The house that I grew up in, which is full of great memories of course, is a horrible 3 bed 1 bath semi in a bad area of Scarberia.
Around 1987 it was worth $64k. That seemed a lot to me, for that tired place.
Supposedly it’s now ‘worth’ $650k, maybe more.
All the price to income, price to rent ratios etc. don’t prove the bubble’s extent to me as much as the idea that my childhood home could possibly be worth anything close to that.
I wouldn’t pay $140k for it.
Sounds to me like Chinese dudes are going to come to Toronto next, so even though we all know they don’t have any affect on prices (cough cough), I think the TO bubble has more room to grow. Will probably accelerate next spring.
Hundreds of billions of dollars held by Chinese sloshing around a few ‘safe’ countries, no biggy.
I’m a free marketer, so I am opposed to a foreignors’ tax. Let the chips fall where they may. Maybe I will be able to sell my last properties at a silly high price with lots of 8s in it.
Then off to Portugal for better food, better wine, better weather and lower prices.
Feel bad for my nieces and nephews though, who will end up buying crappy shacks in Oshawa or some other god forsaken place for $450k just before it all comes crashing down.
Just Google “pathological lying” and see what’s on top of the search. You may be surprised at first, but then . . . how funny . . . .
Can interest rates continue lower for longer? They better if you think real estate is the place to invest.
As we stagflate along, future policy will drive values to a greater extent than notional supply/demand dynamics. We can double immigration and still have a declining real rate of return on property over a define period of time.
#31 Smoking Man on 11.03.16 at 7:44 pm
Brilliance tonight Gartho.
“and desperate cougars”
I can’t stop laughing…
—————————————————-
I’ve had many close encounters with wild animals in my 70 years on this earth and more recently a grizzly while out on a hike and that was a bit scary. However, the scariest encounter I have ever had was coming face to face with a 52 year old cougar in a Blues Bar in Kelowna some years ago. I was scarred for life as a result.
Gee, its funny how a couple of days ago I posted about how hot the suburban markets were in the GTA and was cast aside as a realtor. Posters noted crickets in some markets and languishing developments….please.
I told the story of my colleague that bought a 300k home in Mount Albert in 2012 and just sold it for 600k this month, after the had already put a DP down on 850 new build in Mount Albert 8 months ago.
There is a story of someone that will whether any storm and has a HOME now. Even after commission and property transfer taxes and associated other costs, there is a cool 200k. Does she care that her 850k house may become 650k? Nope, because it will not impact their financial position ever!
If Vancouver is any indicator, the GTA has lots more room to go up particularly as there is no foreign buyers tax on the table – FOMO will remain untouched. There is no lever to shut this off. So those renters waiting on the sidelines, yes, its going to get a lot more expensive and more challenging to find rental accommodations. And its going to last for years and years if prices correct.
And the advice to look into a better lease is disingenuous. The GTA is getting its ‘Vancouverization’ as renters face very limited quality stock, fixed term leases with gouging landlords, and every increase rents (nobody is doing month to month so no CPI increases if you want to stay more than a year).
As someone said, as the feds tighten one screw they loosen a few more – those being the 300k new immigrants at minimum every year that will put continued and unending pressure on house prices! Banks give out loans to everyone with a pulse and the minor fed changes will not change that…
Boom! Best post in months.
@ #60 WHY: “Rents are going to get very expensive in Toronto. Projecting 20% year over year increases.”
Long term rents are going to get a lot cheaper. Why? Because once the last of the greater fools is gone, and people realize they gambled hard on never-ending price appreciation, they’re going to panic at the illiquidity of their real estate, and desperate to stay afloat, will put their places for rent in order to generate some cash flow. Rentals vacancy will increase, creating a renter’s market, and therefore prices will go down in order to be competitive.
That’s what I think anyways.
#40 Smoking Man on 11.03.16 at 7:59 pm
Book update for the 100 or so people that care.
It’s going live Nov 7th a day before the election of President Trump.
Now to get my publisher to get it into ebook format the bugger wanted 1500 bucks. I tricked the basterd, showed him my 300k visits on my blog, then sent him here showing all my smoking posts. Said greaterfool gets 100 million unique views a month. Ha. Told him to pick up the cost, and I’ll cut you in. We signed a contract.
So the lowest I can go on the 7th is 5 bucks, I figure I’ll sell a hundred max. My cut depending on were you buy it will be from a 1 to 2 dollars.
Now if your a regular blog dog going through hard times, send me a selfie showing you giving a homeless bugger a loony or a pocket change.
I’ll send you a free copy.
…
5 BUCKS!!!!.. Disgraceful…. we made you smoker dude.. without the steerage section to bounce that crap off you would just be a casino drunk slumped in a corner fending off cougars and shirley
5 BUCKS…. you must be joking dude …truly deplorable.. what’s our cut!
The content and message of Garth’s bog tonight are both worrisome and startling. Are air and water quality monitored in the GTA?
I suppose folks there are hardly unique but it is strange to see people examine their ledger of life. On one side is “I can be a striving acquisitor and throw myself and my family into a meat grinder.” The other side is for quality of life entries.
The ledger is out of balance. Those folks have stepped onto the hurricane deck.
@ #52 VancouverRenter:
After 30 years of landlording my brother and I ended up with 7 units in Calgary.
Two were commercial strata, two were executive rentals used exclusively by the U of Calgary and three were homes. 4, 3, 2 beds too. Balance, eh?
Homes, not houses.
That was our motto.
We enjoyed almost zero vacancy, zero churn, zero tenant damage.
One long term tenant, a retired University librarian, had to move into assisted living and so her daughter simply moved in after her…and was there for years.
We did a yearly tenant’s picnic complete with kids games, prizes for the most outrageous acts performed by a tenant (like teaching your daughter to drive resulting in a run over tree, fence and flower bed. Do you know how long it takes to grow a tree in Calgary?)
If you were over 4 years we gave your December rent back.
Etc.
I tell you this not for personal aggrandizement but to let you know that there are landlords out there who are not the landlords you seem to have.
My brother is gone, I sold the business to a big Calgary property firm for so close to retail I still can’t believe it and before the oil poof thing too.
so,I’m out of the game for a couple of years now. I don’t know anyone to put you in touch with, don’t have any advice as to where or how to look but do take Garth’s snarky advice…research, ask, seek.
Housing is causing you stress. You have two choices, learn to manage that stress or work to eliminating that stress. Figure out what you want to do and then move on that plan.
Re YVR Sunshine Coast.
The Coast is full of retired baby boomers who have cashed in on their city home to then buy a view home on the Coast plus a view home in a warmer climate plus put a bunch of cash in the bank.
I guess it takes a special breed of person to enjoy their retirement years…
Frak me! I almost forgot what a miserable shithole Ontario was when I left for Seattle in 1999. Now it’s even worse and obscenely overpriced to boot. I just trashed any thoughts I was having of moving back. I’m now focusing 200% on leaving BC and going back to the USA even with trump. NAFTA visa is my ticket back to a 1st world standard of living.
Buying a place is not easy either. If you put half as much effort in choosing a rental (and the landlord) as you would buying a place you will avoid all the headaches you went through. Spend the time and effort once and it will save you the next five moves.
Never take a fixed term lease. You pretty much know from the start the landlord is a slumlord and plans to extort you for more rent or just kick you out.
Re: #9 john on 11.03.16 at 6:55 pm
Obviously you don’t live in Alberta. Prices are down nearly 50 percent in Fort McMurray, down between 20 to 25 percent in Calgary and down 10 to 15 percent in Edmonton. Ask any real estate agent in Alberta they have all the selling prices since October 2014.
toronto with its crazy traffic and poor infrastructure is still a pretty safe place to be.
has anyone been following the chicago crime stats…
http://heyjackass.com/
they be crazy… 80 homicides in Oct. Someone shot every 2h…
so we have some horrible traffic…
Yes at the same time the government can sell off drums of radioactive nuclear waste. There will be similar demand.
Any comment on the calgary economy? The radio today said housing prices may go up a bit because the economy is apparently starting to do a bit better based on building permits.
http://www.calgarycitynews.com/2016/11/calgary-building-permit-values-spike-in.html?m=1
I am going to be more charitable toward the decisions Canadians are making on their purchases of real estate in 604 and 416. Look how stupid the billionaire oil titans that own the Calgary Flames are. About $100 million in contracts for Monahan, Gaudreau and Brodie. A cumulative – 27 (+/-) ten games into the season. On the other hand, possibly a positive ROI long term.
“Maybe, we don’t? MARK may have an answer to that.”
I’m not aware of anything like CDO’s or CDO^2’s, or “trancheing” of MBS in Canada. Or a meaningful “private label” MBS marketplace. Lending in Canada appears to be mostly on-balance sheet or sold into CMHC/NHA-sponsored MBS as the means of securitization.
However, the amount of leverage inherent in both housing finance and the housing market, in Canada, is extreme. With the CMHC/GoC’s support being pivotal to both the housing market and the solvency of the mortgage finance industry. With the CMHC being short $155B of capital and the government being the CMHC’s unconditional guarantor, it logically follows that political risk in Canadian MBS, and in the Canadian banking system is extreme. So you could get a lot of volatility arising from such.
Fannie/Freddie in the USA were $5T entities combined. CMHC is a $900B entity in Canada. When we use the traditional 1:10 ratio, the level of government involvement in Canada’s mortgage finance system is at extreme levels dramatically surpassing that seen in the US.
“#46 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.03.16 at 8:12 pm
“Yabbut we don’t slice and dice our mortgages.”
Um – Mortgage backed securities mean anything to you?”
The practice WalMark was referring to was taking a MBS, and turning it into ‘tranches’ (pronounce it like a Frenchman!). With each ‘tranche’ representing a claim on a certain amount of the total obligation for which the MBS represents a claim against.
For example, a residential subprime mortgage may have been bundled with many other subprime mortgages. The first 50% of the mortgage would have been one “tranche”, and under most scenarios, would have been expected to pay out in 99.999% of modelled scenarios. Hence, rating agencies (sometimes with a bit of bribery as ‘persuasion’) assigned such an AAA rating. Junior “tranches” were assigned lower ratings, but had theoretically higher returns. The end result was that, at least partially, subprime mortgages could be funded as though they were AAA-rated mortgages. Achieving a lower blended cost of borrowing than you would have achieved if the whole subprime mortgage, for instance, was rated CCC.
The big problem was, while loss severity was predicted to top out at 30-40%, many defaults delivered 60-80% losses to the lenders (remember, it was costing $60-$80k per housing unit simply to process a foreclosure!). So those AAA-rated “tranches” suffered severe losses which “theoretically” were nearly impossible under the risk models used at the time.
I do believe that WalMark is correct, such structures do not, or only minimally exist in Canada’s housing finance system. Whether this is material to Canada’s RE decline or not is an entirely area of debate that could get very technical. CMHC’s structure can be viewed as being very scary as they have only $25B of capital to ‘back’ $900B of mortgage guarantees.
BTW, a great movie to be educated on this stuff is “The Big Short”.
#27 YVR, Sunshine Coast on 11.03.16 at 7:26 pm
YVR downtown, English Bay, Stanley Park, Grouse Mountain…there is nothing scenic like that in Canada, not even close.
Unfortunately, unless you are made of money or bought downtown 85 years ago, you can only visit instead of live there.
This is a myth that just won’t die. Back in 2001, new’ish one bedrooms downtown Van cost $130-$170k – i know i looked at some. Older buildings in the west end were cheaper. I was renting at Kits Beach at the time, a 5 min drive from downtown. One bedrooms cost about $140-150k. Entire westside houses only $600-700k. It WAS quite affordable just 15 years ago for anyone with a half decent job, and my examples are for the downtown core and desirable Kits Beach. Commercial Drive condos on the eastside cost $80k.
this one is for my pal the Smoking Man…
“Dinosauria, We”
by Charles Bukowski.
Born like this
Into this
As the chalk faces smile
As Mrs. Death laughs
As the elevators break
As political landscapes dissolve
As the supermarket bag boy holds a college degree
As the oily fish spit out their oily prey
As the sun is masked
We are
Born like this
Into this
Into these carefully mad wars
Into the sight of broken factory windows of emptiness
Into bars where people no longer speak to each other
Into fist fights that end as shootings and knifings
Born into this
Into hospitals which are so expensive that it’s cheaper to die
Into lawyers who charge so much it’s cheaper to plead guilty
Into a country where the jails are full and the madhouses closed
Into a place where the masses elevate fools into rich heroes
Born into this
Walking and living through this
Dying because of this
Muted because of this
Castrated
Debauched
Disinherited
Because of this
Fooled by this
Used by this
Pissed on by this
Made crazy and sick by this
Made violent
Made inhuman
By this
The heart is blackened
The fingers reach for the throat
The gun
The knife
The bomb
The fingers reach toward an unresponsive god
The fingers reach for the bottle
The pill
The powder
We are born into this sorrowful deadliness
We are born into a government 60 years in debt
That soon will be unable to even pay the interest on that debt
And the banks will burn
Money will be useless
There will be open and unpunished murder in the streets
It will be guns and roving mobs
Land will be useless
Food will become a diminishing return
Nuclear power will be taken over by the many
Explosions will continually shake the earth
Radiated robot men will stalk each other
The rich and the chosen will watch from space platforms
Dante’s Inferno will be made to look like a children’s playground
The sun will not be seen and it will always be night
Trees will die
All vegetation will die
Radiated men will eat the flesh of radiated men
The sea will be poisoned
The lakes and rivers will vanish
Rain will be the new gold
The rotting bodies of men and animals will stink in the dark wind
The last few survivors will be overtaken by new and hideous diseases
And the space platforms will be destroyed by attrition
The petering out of supplies
The natural effect of general decay
And there will be the most beautiful silence never heard
Born out of that.
The sun still hidden there
Awaiting the next chapter.
———
At first I was shocked by the smug callousness of your reply to #52 Vancouver Renter: “Suggest you put more effort into researching your next rental. I lease a great place in the city.– Garth”
Then I realized-you don’t know.
I also wrote you about my insecurity as a renter with 2 kids in BC due to fixed lease terms. You didn’t address that, and perhaps it is because you don’t have this issue in Ontario.
You see there is a loophole in BC law that allows landlords to raise rents as much as they want every year by using fixed leases. Rent increases are not governed by the BC Tenancy Act if there is a move out date on the lease.
Unless you rent a condo from an individual owner (not great for a family because owner could up and sell anytime), many of us find ourselves obliged to sign a fixed lease agreement with a property management company to rent an apartment in the Lower Mainland or the Okanagan.
So we cross our fingers and hope that when the time comes to renew, the rental increase won’t be an additional $300 a month. I’m lucky because the property management company I rent from has so far only increased my rent by $20. But That could change anytime, and no it is not a question of better researching a rental next time. Only dives will sign a normal lease. All the nice places properly managed and relatively new require fixed leases.
That is our reality here on BC, and it’s very different than in your Ontario. It’s going before the legislature because the NDP want to close this loophole that has been making renters’ (especially low income) situation so precarious.
Now you know. Don’t be callous.
Donald Trumps rallies are beginning to look like the Billy Graham revival meetings with the crowds he is getting in his latest rallies. Thousands gathering to hear him speak. It’s hard to believe the polls can even be as close as they portrait them to be given that Hillary has a hard time attracting a crowd of 500. It’s going to be an interesting night on November the 8th.
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-selma-north-carolina-rally-speech-event-live-stream-livestream-watch-online-youtube/
“With vacancy rates hovering near zero in major urban markets such as Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna, NDP Leader John Horgan says the problems facing renters are reaching crisis levels. …
From G&M: “Concerns about the rental lease loophole have been charted by housing advocates across the province. Paul LaGace of the Kitimat Housing Resource Project says he has been raising the alarm for the past two years in his community.
“It’s not an isolated situation,” Mr. LaGace said.
His organization estimates that 80 per cent of the town’s 1,300 rental units are offered only with fixed-term leases, leaving few alternatives. He said some landlords are bypassing the province’s rent-control rules, which allow for one rent increase every 12 months, by negotiating new terms under the threat of being forced to vacate.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/ndp-calls-for-legislature-to-address-bc-rent-control-loopholes/article32326063/
#26 Whats Wrong With Me?
“Some of my family members’ houses have doubled in value in a few short years but my portfolio is only up about 10% give or take.”
————————————–
Have they sold yet, crystallized their gains and reinvested with diversification and decreased risk?
I didn’t think so. At least your 10% is real.
I am turning 62 years of old …. and I am ready to tear somebody up….maybe you realtors!
Been a while since I did a walkabout in the Mt. Pleasant area of Vancouver. Last time was in March and in a 30 sq. block area there were only a couple houses with For sale signs. Today, I saw 2 “sold” signs and 2 “for sale” signs. Both homes for sale are oldies and likely will be torn down and both asking over 2 million. There are a dozen new homes being built (tear downs). Several new builds. Many homes appeared to be vacant on the 6 streets I walked about. One that really caught my attention was a house on a corner lot that sold for 2.8 million in March (500m over asking). It had 3 suites with revenue of 58,000/yr. Well, this house was torn down and it appears that they are building a larger home and laneway house on the lot. Here is what the house looked like before demolition. Totally mind boggling. From what I gather from a local realtor, the market is dead at the moment. Zero happening.
http://www.martyhomes.com/our-listings/208-w-18th-avenue-vancouver-bc-v5y-2a7/
Regina Realtors are honest about the shifting sales mix:
http://reginarealtors.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=142&Itemid=20
“The average in the city was $340,728, up 6% from last year’s $322,010. These increases are entirely attributable to a shift to higher priced homes in the sales mix and are not indicative of increases in value of properties.”
Why does the same seem to elude the Toronto Realtors who are facing basically the same (over the past 3 years in fact), and haven’t come out and admitted it?
Could it be that its just a lot harder to pull the wool over the eyes of Regina-ites, than it is in the big cities?
Of course we have a fool that posts here (a “Greater Fool”) claiming the sales mix doesn’t exist. Or he’s actually fallen silent on that claim lately. A last-ditch effort to rescue his credibility?
My father spent a lifetime driving to work in TO along the QEW from Burlington. He blamed the stress of that for his first heart attack at 62 years old.
In 1992 my immediate family and I were sick of TO, the attitude of many, the freezing cold and the traffic gridlock. far worst now I know. We went out to BC to see if we would relocate there but the feeling you have in BC of being on the very edge of the planet with no where to go, turned us off. Felt the same way in Perth Australia so we went to GB, where one can escape to very very many places for a weekend.
My thoughts are always the same I know, see life and enjoy every day.
#90 Julie K.
Just like they’re going to build one to Vancouver Island and have been threatening to do so for the past 20 years.
Do you see a bridge?
I don’t.
And ya, they’re not going to replace the Patullo because building a bridge to a bunch of hicks in the middle of nowhere Sunshine Coast is a much higher priority, let alone fixing/repairin the rest of the bridges in YVR.
My bad.
Good to read you are smoking 420 to pass the time away.
Yup, the dots are all lining up.
Those dots you are seeing, are trees and rocks on your hinterland home lot.
bsant
#11 The real Kip on 11.03.16 at 6:56 pm
“Interest rates are going nowhere.”
…with fat-free yogurt and whole wheat bread being good for you.
Rates are going up. People are well advised to get rid of debt asap.
It’s a complete myth that rising rates will hurt the economy. Quite the opposite. Higher rates will restore value to currencies and most people and businesses will don their little creative hats to find ways to survive.
Bellicose wishing won’t sustain low rates.
Foreign buyer tax of 15% hasn’t worked in Hong Kong – so they’re trying a 15% tax for domestic buyers too (first time buyers are exempt). No joke:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-04/hong-kong-s-leung-plans-tightening-amid-home-price-rebound
401’s badly designed. It is not possible to stay in the same lane. Driving this highway through the GTA requires a series of ongoing lane changes, to stay in the through lane. This causes countless accidents as people make last minute hail mary lane switches to avoid exiting at the wrong stop or heading on or off of the express lanes.
RE: Toronto real estate. I used to come on here and say: “Toronto is not overpriced, go and purchase a house in a not-so-prime neighbourhood and you will be fine”.
I can’t say that anymore. There are no such things. We have bidding wars in Mount Dennis. I don’t really know what’s going on here anymore.
The Toronto market is nuts. Developer buys waterfront land for $60 million, sells the still-empty plot two years later for $166 miliion. Nice return!
https://renx.ca/toronto-condo-site-sells-at-the-right-price/
#48 Andrew Woburn on 11.03.16 at 8:17 pm
“What a surprise!
According to a new report commissioned by Vancity credit union:
97 per cent of British Columbians are involved in the second-hand market, either buying, selling or donating used goods.
The report estimates the second-hand economy in the province totals about $1 billion a year in sales.”
You can extend that right across the country. If retailers think that they are hurting now, they are in for a full-price surprise. Buying second-hand is a mind blowing treasure hunt. It’s gone mainstream. Even the rich shop second-hand. Perhaps especially the rich. Best value around.
Example (one of hundreds): Yesterday, scored 2 Riedel stems, an antique English covered serving dish and two Villeroy and Boch pieces. “Design Naif” (8″ quiche and 3″ candy box- $69.95 and 23.85, on Replacements Ltd) all in perfect condition, for $4 total. No tax. Plus, a signed, 36″ X 36″ aluminum and glass framed silkscreen, again in perfect condition, for $4. Michael Kors ear muffs and logo zipper leather gloves (perfect condition) for $1 each. I can hardly shop anywhere else now.
This is a super-effective device for saving cash. I cringe at retail prices now…and these shops will never run out of treasure. They are a constant bi-directional stream of excellent, quality goods.
I live in Oakville and spend $450 a month commuting. Horrible place to live especially when I grew up in Southern Ontario.
Oakville is overrated!!!…and a dump no different than Richmond Hill, Brampton Markham and Ajax/Oshawa.
Many many empty nesters here have been selling and moving out of here cashing in their windfalls for smaller town Ontario.
If all generation X ers thought paying you student loans off was bad, wait till you have to pay for morgages on houses worth significantly less.
Oakville is the land of communication tower and industrial pollution. I’m looking to move!
#52 VancouverRenter on 11.03.16 at 8:27 pm
“With all due respect, you speak about renting like it’s some magical utopian paradise where nothing ever goes wrong, where landlords are fantastic, where previous tenants took care of the units, and where rental laws are in someway fair to renters.”
Wow, you have been through a lot. Too much.
There are laws that are fair to renters. Trouble is, many tenants either don’t document torts, nor show up at hearings. I’ve done the research on such cases.
I sued a dirt-bag owner. It played the avoid, evade, deny and bs game to the max. Thought it was smarter. It ended up paying through the nose, PLUS interest on the amount over the 4 years it took to nail its a$$. Best feeling. EVER.
Now, we have the best deal on wheels with another rental. No rent increase in 5 years and counting. We could buy, but are keeping our options open whilst maxing out savings. In this melting market, there is no rush.
Suing is easy: Make it impossible for the judge to rule other than in your favour, be patient and respect the judge. S/he knows what they’re doing.
Finance is Not the Economy
http://michael-hudson.com/2016/08/finance-is-not-the-economy/
#44 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.03.16 at 8:09 pm
The average detached digs in the 905 wilderness sells for just a hair under $950,000 – a stunning increase of 29% in the past year.
What the hell is WRONG with ppl in Toronto burbs???
_________
Mississauga is a net importer of jobs. More people work here than live here. And many of us who live here as well don’t go into Toronto very often.
GTA is described as one big city centered around Union Station and while there is a lot of traffic and flow in that direction not everyone does. I went to see Justin Rutledge in concert a few weeks ago, it was easier for me to go to his Hamilton show via the 407 than to go into Toronto to see him.
funny this guy Einstein he was. i would strongly recommend to read letter he wore to his daughter Lieserl.
https://wearelightbeings.wordpress.com/2015/04/15/a-letter-from-albert-einstein-to-his-daughter-about-the-universal-force-which-is-love/
#112 WUL on 11.04.16 at 12:12 am
The content and message of Garth’s bog tonight are both worrisome and startling. Are air and water quality monitored in the GTA?
___________________
The air quality in the west end of the GTA is dramatically improved since the closing of the Lakeview Generating Station in 2005. Yes, the Liberal gov’t has screwed up a lot of things with the hydro system in Ontario, but this was one very good thing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakeview_Generating_Station
161,000 Jobs? Yes in line with expectations but…
FED will only hike in DEC if Trump wins…
It’s all politics, not reality.
OIL to $35.
To all the people saying rents will go up 20% a year, you’re nuts.
Rents are tied to inflation/wages; you can’t borrow for your rent backstopped by the taxpayer (CMHC) at record low “emergency” interest rates the way you do for a house purchase. People can’t magically come up with 20% more take home income to pay their rent each month the way they can borrow 20% more to buy because the lenders give away money like whores give away syphilis.
Sure, the landlords can ask for more money, but rents increase with incomes as a rule. The reason why houses are deemed over valued is because they are unreasonable ratios to the underlying rental values and incomes. It’s very specious thinking to believe that rents will suddenly skyrocket without inflation and/or wages also skyrocketing.
#96 Doghouse Dweller on 11.03.16 at 10:44 pm
And that`s a large part of what has been driving the house flipper economy.
A down payment from the Bank of Mom , No tax on your labour and no capital gain at selling time. Sweet !
Problem now is the cost of materials. Home Depot knows what`s going on and demanding their pound of flesh. $3.10 a foot for pressed cardboard trim and $50 a gallon for paint. And Garth is talking about a .Gov crackdown probably to include a Lawn mower license, insurance and helmet law.
____________________________________________
I know folks who have done this for an entire career, although it’s getting tough with the stagnant RE market the last couple years keeping prices down on the shiny new stuff.
These guys are tradesmen, work in construction, build new, and hire their construction trades buddies on the weekends under the table to do the various mechanical/electrical/cabinetry etc.. I know several who have become millionaires, they all worked dawn till dusk 6-7 days a week for decades though. 15 years ago, a guy I know told me the house he just did the year in and was putting on the market was his 13th, so he’s probably on his 28th house right now as he has not stopped at all.
It is winding down though, it’s taking a year to sell 400K+ houses out here nowadays. There were a lot of shenanigans going on 3 years ago with folks trying to flip the big houses for big bucks which then were bought by out of towners who intended to flip then again. ALL the current owners have their pants around their ankles at this point – a quick flip has turned into an “investment”, or an adventure trying to rent out a mansion located in the hinterland.
#79 Time will tell on 11.03.16 at 9:56 pm
Any one here in there 30s that grew up in the Gta? Remember the neighborhood you grew up in. I bet 95% of you can’t afford to live there. Most my friends can’t. Lucky some of their parents have houses paid off. Where are Gta parents supposed to go? No one is moving. Florida? Good luck with that. Most canadian parents will ” retire” in the Gta. Canadians are stuck in the Gta. You have no where else to go.
______________________________________
Many, GTA folks retire and head out to a small town Ontario – because that is where they were originally from. A town not far from me has an “adult community” (no kids) built right by the lake, nice but small houses, 2 minutes from town – it is jammed with old folks retiring out of the GTA. In fact, quite a few Torontonians are buying and spending on rural homes that they intend to retire in well ahead of their actual retirement. It becomes their “summer house” until the day arrives – big bucks go into these.
The only folks that stay the GTA for retirement are the ones that were probably born there.
REMEMBER WHEN BILL CLINTON WAS PRESIDENT?
(January 20, 1993 to January 20, 2001—two terms)
DELETED – Don’t cut-and-paste long articles here from other sources without attribution. Have more respect. Better yet, go away. – Garth
—————————————-
Sorry Garth.. The link to article/blog wasn’t included.
REMEMBER WHEN BILL CLINTON WAS PRESIDENT?
(January 20, 1993 to January 20, 2001—two terms)
Link:
https://maddmedic.wordpress.com/2016/06/24/remember-when-bill-clinton-was-president/
#145 CJBob on 11.04.16 at 8:34 am
The air quality in the west end of the GTA is dramatically improved since the closing of the Lakeview Generating Station in 2005. Yes, the Liberal gov’t has screwed up a lot of things with the hydro system in Ontario, but this was one very good thing.
________________________
Lakeview was down to 50% capacity by the 90’s and had run only part time as a peaker since the 80’s. Lakeview’s impact on the air quality by the millennium was negligible.
Toronto still has a brown haze hanging over it most days, and the air is now worse than it has ever been. Meanwhile, hydro bills are driving folks to literal starvation in some parts of Ontario.
Thanks libs!
Canada pumps out surprising 44,000 jobs in October
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canada-pumps-out-surprising-44000-jobs-in-october/article32673813
Canada added an unexpected 44,000 jobs in October, as a surge in part-time positions offset a drop in full-time work.
From September to October, part-time employment jumped by 67,000 spots and full-time fell by 23,000, according to Statistics Canada’s monthly labour report. Analysts polled by Bloomberg had forecast a loss of 15,000 positions.
The U.S. added 161,000 jobs in October and wage growth accelerated to its strongest pace since the recession.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-adds-161-000-jobs-in-october-jobless-rate-ticks-down-to-4-9-1478262813?mod=e2fb
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected 173,000 new jobs and a jobless rate of 4.9% in October.
One highlight from Friday’s report: Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 2.8% in October compared with a year earlier, the strongest annual wage growth since June 2009.
The report, with its evidence of a tightening labor market, likely keeps the Federal Reserve on track to potentially raise rates at its mid-December policy meeting.
We’ve seen a lot of variation in your assessment of Toronto’s downside. I know that supply makes it a more unpredictable beast. What advice do you have for those of us delaying life plans (kids etc.) to be responsible with our futures? I could absorb a little loss for consumption value but not a large one.
Unfortunately, I feel like the government is more concerned with the incumbent real-estate-rich than the responsible young people who have been waiting and saving. Wynne may counter-legislate/policy a real crash based on her comments!
http://www.bnn.ca/u-s-economy-adds-161-000-jobs-in-october-as-election-looms-1.600114
WASHINGTON – U.S. employers maintained a strong pace of hiring in October and boosted wages for workers, which could effectively seal the case for a December interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs last month amid gains in construction, healthcare and professional and business services, the Labor Department said on Friday.
Adding to the report’s strong tone, August and September data was revised to show 44,000 more jobs created than previously reported. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents in October. As a result, the year-on-year gain in wages last month was the largest in nearly 7-1/2 years.
colonizing mars
outer space burbs /inflatable living structures …real estate boom ? huh? Where are the “dreamers” for inner space?
===============
Living conditions in McIvor’s trailer were “horrifying” to Williams, who happened to be in Winnipeg this week for an Assembly of First Nations National Housing and Infrastructure Forum.
“This is tragic. They need desperate help right away.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/sandy-bay-new-home-company-1.3835247
list of 100 worst buildings toronto
http://www.landlordwatch.com/
===========
one health day nov 3
http://blogs.worldbank.org/health/one-health-let-s-not-have-pandemics-get-way
Still not sure how most renters are going to come out ahead in this. Lets say you were about to enter the market in 2012 but listened toma guy like Ross Kay and decided to rent instead. Could have bought a home in the suburbs of YVR for 600k, but rented a nice house for the family for 3k instead. 5 years later the crash appears to be happening. Prices drop to 2012 levels. You wait, I mean why get in at the same price you could have been in at 5 years ago? Market stays flat, you wait 10 more years. You’ve now spent 450k on rent over the past 15 years.
So while I agree that NOW, today, would be a terrible time to enter the market, renters that have been sitting on the sidelines for years making big rental payments on family homes will not be the big winners. Moisters that got in early and have built up equity and moisters with big incomes – and there are lots of them – in cheap rentals putting aside tons of cash – will be the winners here. If you are 40s plus and think this market will turn quick enough to get your dream home near the city, sorry pal bad news, you missed it.
# 35
…”Comparing to 2015, there’s been an increase of 17% amazing percents of house borrowers getting notices from the banks, in Quebec. Notices that warn the borrower that he/she has missed payments or has broken a clause”….
Imagine my chock!!
What can we expect when salaries did not match mortgages and all other expenses?
Next….divorce rate also increase!
Holy Crap!!! Is this coming next from BC’s Kristy Krunch!
“So why would people move from where their jobs are to the hinterland, full of coyotes, weasels and desperate cougars? Just for the cheaper houses?” – Garth
Nailed it Garth….but you forgot bears, skunks, hunters and crappy snow removal by City services. Well at least where I live. lol
Forrest Gump said it best “stupid is as stupid does” The next 6 months in RE in Canada should prove to be very interesting. Cant wait to see what the future i-dot blog dogs have to say…..My morning coffee has never been better. lol
What a joke. CONservative tim hudak who is now CEO of the RE industry with his tough talk. The fact is the RE industry needs to be opened up and regulated. Itès obvious the industry is corrupt and will never change. Btw I wonder hoe CONservative tim hudak got hooked up with such a nice job. Just goes to show you certain jobs VP , CEO and other high profile jobs are already taken. Hard work , schooling is a joke since the silver spoon are already hooked up with these jobs.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/better-enforcement-steeper-fines-what-s-needed-to-fix-the-real-estate-industry-1.3835689
“I can be a striving acquisitor and throw myself and my family into a meat grinder.”
———————————–
urban 604/416 renters are trying to ***escape*** the meat grinder by buying.
moving 5 times in 4 years? does that sound like fun?
from preschool thru about gr6 for my daughter she became quite close with many friends in the area (she’s very kind and gentle, the exact opposite of me). i can think of 8-10 in particular who are still very close today. i can also think of about the same number who are no longer around as they moved to VI/surrey/new west/ontario etc.
100% of those who left were renters (and nobody left by choice)
100% of those still here don;t rent (most all are paid off or close)
renting is fine if you DO NOT live in 604/416 core.
renting a sfh here is absolutely, positively a recipe for heartache and tears for young children.
I love renters though. who doesn’t love 3/4 of an inch of 20’s handed over every month?
“It’s probably a really bad idea. Not just because the places they’re purchasing are made of glue, particle board and fake bricks…”
But they’re not paying those extortionate prices for the particle board! It’s the site value!
CBC market place investigation
“Six out of 10 agents promised to share confidential information and give an advantage if they were to represent both parties in a bidding war.”
Im not surprised. My sister-in-law who has been an ethical real estate salesperson for 20 years in Toronto, has been literally put out of business due to this kind of practice. The system is so corrupted that you have to break the rules to survive! and RICO!??
RICO says, “PROOVE IT!
Maybe Engineers should start designing cheaper (inferior) bridges so that they get all the business from developers and governments who want to save $, and put the ethical engineers out of business.
Maybe that will save us from taxes???
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/04/best-wage-growth-in-7-years-pushes-the-fed-toward-a-december-rate-hike.html
“new developments where detached houses start at $800,000 and easily rise through a million”
Garth, can you estimate the builder cost of that kind of house?
It would be interesting to know the profit margin!
Rent. Wait. Rent. Wait. Rent. Wait….watch how your money goes away…
I bought my TH in 2011 for 350k, now it priced about 560k (Burlington). Rent is not standing still however – from 1500+utils it goes to 2000+utils, my mortgage is 1300 and taxes 200 per month (thus $500 CHEAPER than renting the SAME townhouse)
You forgot to factor in the equity in your home that could be generating income or growth. — Garth
On the wire today Hudson Bay (HBC) launching robotic warehouse and packing and shipping system in its TO warehouse.
Where now will that rush of new immigrants with PhDs land their warehouse job? T2 logic.
I was in a traffic jam on the 401 across the top of Toronto at 1am once. No accidents, no snow, just thousands and thousands of stop and go cars.
#148 IHCTD9
That explains why when I moved to this delirium tremens Ice wine village to enjoy the renowned Niagara lifestyle all the locals were convinced I was just another money grubbing flipper.
No ! No ! I kept saying, I`m here because I need a place to live, I`ve been here a few years so I think its starting to sink in.
Jacob Zuma pressured to resign after it is revealed that he is actually Bill Cosby and father of Will Smith. Coincidence? Nah. Another fraudster running away. Just like Pope Ratzinger did. And Dilma Rousseff. And David Cameron. And … well, you get the picture.
http://www.morningledger.com/s-africa-president-jacob-zuma-resigns-due-to-corruption/13117639/
I’ve told you about your real rulers. I’ve told you many things. If for one moment, you think that one person cannot change the world, I am here to tell you, that you are 100% mistaken. I am proving it right before your eyes. All you have to do is look and see. – XD
here is the complete list of prices for 3br+ non-basement places for rent in my hood (comm dr area) on craigslist.
5000
3500
3100
3100
4495
3200
3000
3000 duplex
4150
3000
and the outlier
2200 (listing is very old, i’d assume place is either gone or uninhabitable, no pics)
9 months ago 90% of listings were under 3k, now 100% are over that mark.
———————–
if this is the going rate i’m looking at 4k upstairs and 1.4k basement , thats is 5.4k/month once we are done being full time in the city.
wonder if 5.4k/mo is enough to survive in a tropical beachside town? or will we have to dip into a fat rrsp/non reg/cpp pile?
#144 NoName:- Einstein had it right as we all need to get our little generators going and have a love in festival somewhere. Nice letter to his daughter as it opens endless options.
Great article Garth … I really appreciate your blog.
#147 Toronto_CA
Rents are tied to inflation/wages;
Not in a globalized world. Come to Vancouver and see what’s happening to rents. Gonna happen there too.
@173 Bdwy Sktrn
Most local working class residents will be rental priced out of Metro Vancouver in a few years. Will have global residents take their place.
Rents up about 50% in the last 2-3 years.
4 more days until we DRAIN THE SWAMP. I think one of the great things to come from a Trump win will be his pledge to create term limits of career politicians. I think this policy will spill into Canada hopefully.
The average MP lasts four years, and it takes half that time just to learn to be effective. Why do we need term limits? — Garth
@ #141 Max who said “There are laws that are fair to renters.”
With all due respect, you don’t know what you’re talking about. You obviously don’t live in BC, and what is true in your province is not true here. Provincial tenancy laws differ from province to province. What VancouverRenter is talking about is landlords in BC using a legal loophole to raise rents any amount they want.
If you sue a landlord using a legal loophole you will lose, as they aren’t doing anything illegal. Unethical, yes, but within the law.
We live in a federation, not a republic. That means renters in different provincials rent under different laws as housing is a provincial jurisdiction. Basic Grade 9 social studies, guys.
#173 boardway skytrain
You are so deluded in your views it is comical.
I found this rental with 5 seconds of Craigslist searching.
A full 4BR renovated house.
$3000 / 4br – 1800ft2 – >>4 BEDROOM HOUSE COMMERCIAL DRIVE & 1ST AVE, NEWLY REMODELLED<< (VANCOUVER)
https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5860444966.html
Good luck in renting your dump for $5,400. LOL. And remember to declare all your rental income to the CRA.
1. Speak for yourself: I love renting. No exaggeration. I simply love renting, for the peace of mind, for the profits (so far ahead financially than if I’d bought in Kelowna), for the joy of being right downtown in the best unit in my building and yet paying less than virtually every “owner” here.
2. Don’t bring race into this. The moment you do you expose yourself as an insufferable SJW. All credibility is lost at that point.
Stupid question you can all laugh at me for. Is there a way to know if comparable houses in an area have had prices reduced? Sorry I’m a dumb American who’s always taken Zillow for granted.
#52 VancouverRenter on 11.03.16 at 8:27 pm
Suggest you put more effort into researching your next rental. I lease a great place in the city.– Garth
===============================
When i see a term like “forever home” used I can say first of all that this poster is a woman (nothing wrong there); but men do not use that term. Secondly, I know many renters and NO ONE has been forced to move that many times in so short a time frame. As a matter of fact it is only in rare circumstances someone has HAD to move. I know of one instance where the house was sold and the new owners kept the tenancy in place with no rental increase.
I would suspect this post was made by a female realtor pumper trying to spread FUD yet again.
#170 Doghouse Dweller on 11.04.16 at 11:20 am
#148 IHCTD9
That explains why when I moved to this delirium tremens Ice wine village to enjoy the renowned Niagara lifestyle all the locals were convinced I was just another money grubbing flipper.
No ! No ! I kept saying, I`m here because I need a place to live, I`ve been here a few years so I think its starting to sink in.
__________________________________________
Yeah folks out here don’t like the flippers much – but we are far enough away from the GTA that it’s a real long shot trying to make a profitable flip on an expensive house. Not enough locals (who know what the place is really worth) interested in getting ripped off, and trying to lure a wealthy buyer from Toronto puts you into some heavy competition. Meanwhile you’re paying 10+ grand a year for taxes, hydro, heat, property maintenance while you wait for a greater fool. We don’t get many.
We LOVE the GTA folks retiring out here though – they’re pretty much HAM to us hicks :). I am not far from Prince Edward County which is another wine area that seems to be gentrifying quickly. Crazy folks from Toronto are buying up 100 acre cornfields 50 miles out in the middle of nowhere for 600K – who wouldn’t like that? :)
So glad I came across this blog 2 years ago. We almost purchased a box in Maple Ridge (ugg) for nearly 1/2 mil.
Partly because of reading this blog we made a decision to continue to rent in Van. Not a bad place, not the greatest but AFFORDABLE. We have room to breathe and can make savings. We can’t have pets here (which I would very much like to have) but we’re staying till things get better and we can afford to move.
Everyone these days wants to have what they want right now. That’s really the issue. No one wants to wait or work for anything. My grandparents lived in a sod house in Northern Saskatchewan (we would all die trying to live the way they did) and they survived and eventually were able to have a house (completely paid for and built by my grandfather) but not till they were in their late 50’s.
We all expect 50% gains year over year. Total delusion… all this borrowing is not going to have a great outcome.
And when did Canadians get so snooty and soulless? all they seem to care about is granite countertops.. I have one family member who is spending considerable dough (and making her life hell in the process) updating her kitchen and for what? seems like a big waste of $$ and trying to keep up with the Joneses…
You often hear stories of how much less expensive life is after you retire. I was skeptical until I actually did it.
The difference (for me anyway) was incredible. Since I worked on Bay St my clothing budget alone was almost equal to my total monthly expenses now.
I no longer pay for parking ($300/mth), gas ($200/mth), lunches ($400 mth), clothing ($2,000 mth = price of one decent Zegna suit), after work drinks with ‘the guys’ ($400 mth, minimum), gym membership ($200 mth) etc.
But the biggest savings of course was not having to pay the cost of maintaining a close to dt house, with the related property taxes, condo fees, insurance.
And of course my income tax rate is way down as well.
I was in a condo for the last few years, and the fees rose every year. They were close to $900 a month in 2006. That did NOT include hydro, P tax, insurance or mortgage interest.
There will be a time when condo buyers will be hit with a ‘what was I thinking?’ moment, as they realize they are paying in condo fees alone an amount that would cover about half the rent on a similar apt.
Living where I do now means my car insurance is half what it was in Toronto. I can do all my chores, like renewing driver’s licence, going to the dentist, going to Home Depot, in about 10% of the time it would take in the big city.
I have a lakefront property in one of the most beautiful places in the country that cost 1/2 the price of a much smaller (but well located) luxury condo in TO. (I admit I have the cost advantage here of building it myself for the most part. But still…)
My only complaint is that the property taxes here are outrageous. About equal to a city property that is double the assessed value.
So, overall, I would say that in retirement I am living on roughly 1/3 the amount I was when I was working and living in TO. I haven’t shopped at Harry Rosen or Holt’s in a decade. I don’t miss it.
So if you are tired of the rat race, even if not ready for retirement, you could consider being self employed outside the city, make a lot less, and still have a much better lifestyle.
@Victor V- That jobs report is hardly good news.
Twenty three thousand full time jobs lost. 67,000 part time jobs created.
I see today lots of confusion about this and that, so those that are married when was the last time you sat down over coffee for a serious discussion? Here is my formula or a project if you will that you can do over the weekend. Take out a piece of paper with a pen from 1 to 12 and begin to list what is important going forward with the highest priority being number 1. This alone will become a guide to rent, move, invest, or to buy as it will formulate a pattern for consideration composed of real goals to be achieved.
been renting 3 br TH for decades, still under $1,400pm. On Halloween had over 120 kids come by, our street was ablaze in lights, pumpkins and tiny ghouls and princesses. City and AGO spending 11 million on park across the street. Best mix of private, co-op and community housing in Toronto. Amazing landlord has redone hardwood/ceramic kitchen and bathroom, new windows, roof, patio fencing and private park.
as i was planning to head out across howe sound in the sunshine today in my little, 1970’s speedboat, i’m wondering if i will spot christeee clark’s chopper and flotilla as they are about to make an lng announcement at woodfiber.
she is pulling out all the stops to totally crush the dippers in the election.
ndp=no dippers please.
If only to piss off the shrieking eco-nuts i love to see me some fossil fuels being sold eastward.
ng is clean enough to use for centuries. price will come back up eventually.
#162 Brdy Skytrn
renting is fine if you DO NOT live in 604/416 core.
renting a sfh here is absolutely, positively a recipe for heartache and tears for young children.
============================
Won’t somebody PLEASE think of the CHILDREN?
LOL. What a comical goof you are.
“Canada pumps out surprising 44,000 jobs in October”
Low paying, mostly temporary jobs under 26 hrs/wk (no benefits) as university/high school kids who held those jobs in summer are now back in babysitting…er…a… school.
Smoke ‘n mirrors, as always.
#129 Damifino on 11.04.16 at 1:50 am
#26 Whats Wrong With Me?
“Some of my family members’ houses have doubled in value in a few short years but my portfolio is only up about 10% give or take.”
————————————–
Have they sold yet, crystallized their gains and reinvested with diversification and decreased risk?
I didn’t think so. At least your 10% is real.
————
Until he/she sells the 10% gain is as real as the real estate gain – no more, no less. That being said the US stock market is in a huge bubble, and the bond market is even bigger bubble. This doesn’t mean they will blow up rightaway, however the probability to lose 30% in the stock market within 6 months is higher than the probability for a GTA house to lose 30% of it’s current value within the same 6 months.
#52 van renter. Not all renting experiences are bad. In 1988 I rented a brand new 3 bed 2 bath house for $650.00 a month. Twenty eight years later I am still there. Raised two kids. My rent is now $700.00 per month. We are a short drive to one of Okanagan lakes beautiful beaches. The house is hidden away on a fifty acre apple orchard. I am retired now and my grandchildren come stay for several weeks in the summer. Some of my friends that bought paid more than twice my rent for mortgage payments and still today carry mortgages of $400,000.00 they just kept on borrowing as their homes increased in value. Some can only hope to retire if they sell. So in the end one needs to make choices. I choose cheap rent lots of family vacations and disposable income. Did I mention I’m 62 and will spend this winter down south happily paying my rent each month I’m away.
Cougars…probably one of those things where the fantasy is often better than the reality. I just think us guys are wired to attribute qualities to women that at best they lack. Just like the fantasy of living in a big, cozy, orderly house with lots of space…which ends up being a gigantic crypt for the living in comatose neighourhoods.
SQUAMISH, B.C. — Woodfibre LNG says it is proceeding with its proposed liquefied natural gas development near Squamish, B.C., in what would be the province’s first LNG project.
More to come…
1.6b
Many soon to be out of work realtors posting their nonsense posts of buy now or buy never. They are true scum of the earth liars. They are proven liars many deserve prison time for financial crimes. Soon many of you will have no income and many of you will never work in the industry again.
#180 S.Bby on 11.04.16 at 12:48 pm
#173 boardway skytrain
You are so deluded in your views it is comical.
I found this rental with 5 seconds of Craigslist searching.
A full 4BR renovated house.
————
of course that is one of the ones i listed.
i an very close by but on a leafy, quiet, traffic calmed street a few hundred meters from that place with it’s bedrooms within arms reach of the 1st ave freeway. vroom-vroom! the w/d are in the main/front hallway, no character, zero luxury, how about a garage, a huge covered deck and yard? nope.
it’s has a cheap partial reno, gross fireplace, bare bones, smaller, ugly on the very worst street in the hood. and it’s 3k. (don’t think a 2br suite below is included either?)
take at look at this one for a better idea
http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5855637040.html
5k, no suite,- but it’s on victoria dr which is still way, way to busy for kids/pets to play outside
or this
http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5855637040.html
a comp but newer house, but smaller, poor location to the drive. instead of an outdoor backyard sanctuary one gets somebody else living in a mini house crammed into the backyard. luxury baby for 3500.
top 3.5 down 1.5 laneway 2k = he’s pulling in 7k/mo for a shitty location within the area.
woot.
http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5827451301.html
corrected second link
I lived in Toronto for 25+ years and I would always believe I’d live here until I die but like most people my age, when the time came to buy a house, I couldn’t afford one. Sure, there were 2 bedroom houses for $500,000, but these were tiny 80-year-old homes with tons of structural problems. No thank you. My wife and I looked further west to Oakville, then to Burlington and Milton, still out of reach of us. We ended up in Guelph and purchase a beautiful home (under budget) and I must say, it was the best decision we made.
Sorry Garth, but I can still buy my milk 5 minutes away. I have all the convenience of shopping, restaurants, etc. within a 5 minute drive. Both my wife work in Toronto, but we were given the option to work from home, so no commute there. And when do come to Toronto for work, we are giving flex hours to avoid the rush-hour. I believe in the future we will see more employees offer “hot desking” or “WFM” opportunities to help balance employees their work/life and ultimately allow them to retain and attract talent. So the real losers to me are those who give in and buy overpriced $%iT boxes for $500,000. Living in Guelph allows us to raise a family in a quiet city, free from the crime-infested Toronto weirdos (although we have lots of students high on Starbucks), and the overcrowded and unreliable transit options we receive from our ‘world-class’ TTC (really that’s a joke). But let’s face it, you still need to drive in the city to certain spots and it would be hell to get anywhere. I couldn’t be any happier and would encourage those looking elsewhere to not only think about Toronto for homeownership but also for jobs! you don’t need to work in Toronto to make a decent living.
But I will confess, that I will still remain a Leafs fan.
Sincerely,
Proud Guelphite
#188 Context on 11.04.16 at 1:02 pm
….Take out a piece of paper with a pen from 1 to 12 and begin to list what is important going forward with the highest priority being number 1.
——————–
clearly you don’t have kids.
they are #1 and everything else starts around 7 or 8.
stability is a very good thing for many of them.
hence, don’t rent in van till they hit 18 or so otherwise high risk to stability.
Too many part-time jobs replacing full time employment creating a dangerous lack of wage earnings growth going forward. Home prices rising out of control with the cost of money rising is a formula for disaster on the horizon – sell those condos high in the sky quickly.
#173 bdwy strn
wonder if 5.4k/mo is enough to survive in a tropical beachside town? or will we have to dip into a fat rrsp/non reg/cpp pile?
With any luck to Garth and the rest of us blog dogs here, your new beachside digs will be sans internet connection
Please be on your way
You know desperation for Realturds is setting in when even I can spot their posts on here.
I dont know how important pen state is but this interesting.
https://twitter.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/793862042872586240
#110 VanDammeCouver on 11.03.16 at 11:46 pm
Boom! Best post in months.
@ #60 WHY: “Rents are going to get very expensive in Toronto. Projecting 20% year over year increases.”
Long term rents are going to get a lot cheaper. Why? Because once the last of the greater fools is gone, and people realize they gambled hard on never-ending price appreciation, they’re going to panic at the illiquidity of their real estate, and desperate to stay afloat, will put their places for rent in order to generate some cash flow. Rentals vacancy will increase, creating a renter’s market, and therefore prices will go down in order to be competitive.
That’s what I think anyways.
*******************
The jobs report – Part time jobs will not keep young (able to move home) renters in basement suites or apartments. People will hold onto their houses until they can no longer.
Google needs to provide a History Search button as the more things change, human nature remains exactly the same. Watched a you tube show on bubble theory last night. Bubbles repeat as generations forget. Kinda like the war to end all wars…or the financial crisis that has happened before throughout history and will happen again.
ok, now i know how important pen state is.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pennsylvania-could-be-an-electoral-tipping-point/
#124 ulsterman on 11.04.16 at 1:13 am
#27 YVR, Sunshine Coast on 11.03.16 at 7:26 pm
YVR downtown, English Bay, Stanley Park, Grouse Mountain…there is nothing scenic like that in Canada, not even close.
Unfortunately, unless you are made of money or bought downtown 85 years ago, you can only visit instead of live there.
This is a myth that just won’t die. Back in 2001, new’ish one bedrooms downtown Van cost $130-$170k – i know i looked at some. Older buildings in the west end were cheaper. I was renting at Kits Beach at the time, a 5 min drive from downtown. One bedrooms cost about $140-150k. Entire westside houses only $600-700k. It WAS quite affordable just 15 years ago for anyone with a half decent job, and my examples are for the downtown core and desirable Kits Beach. Commercial Drive condos on the eastside cost $80k.
**************
I lived it kits at the time as well – a block from kits beach, most likely we crossed paths. I rented a large one bedroom for $725, utilities included, High end would have been $900-1000 at the time. The real estate mania started when the BC Liberal’s and their developer supporters got into power and things started to drastically rise. New one-bedroom condo’s went from 125-140K to 200K in a short period of time. Houses in Dunbar went from 400K (which was considered a reach at the time) started the upward climb.
Traffic in Van is unavoidable and road rage is rampant.
About the Chinese moving to Toronto in droves.
What makes people think that?
Chinese flocked to Vancouver as it is a hop across the pond and not a hop across a pond and a hop across a country.
I take it we are still in the Denial stage?
#193 Samantha on 11.04.16 at 1:37 pm
Until he/she sells the 10% gain is as real as the real estate gain – no more, no less. That being said the US stock market is in a huge bubble, and the bond market is even bigger bubble. This doesn’t mean they will blow up rightaway, however the probability to lose 30% in the stock market within 6 months is higher than the probability for a GTA house to lose 30% of it’s current value within the same 6 months.
—————
+1
samantha knows.
Some of my family members’ houses have doubled in value in a few short years but my portfolio is only up about 10% give or take.
They must live in Toronto cuz only in Toronto have prices doubled in 10 yrs!
The sad part is some people actually convince themselves they want to live in a box.
#157 Mattl on 11.04.16 at 9:59 am
Still not sure how most renters are going to come out ahead in this. Lets say you were about to enter the market in 2012 but listened toma guy like Ross Kay and decided to rent instead. Could have bought a home in the suburbs of YVR for 600k, but rented a nice house for the family for 3k instead. 5 years later the crash appears to be happening. Prices drop to 2012 levels. You wait, I mean why get in at the same price you could have been in at 5 years ago? Market stays flat, you wait 10 more years. You’ve now spent 450k on rent over the past 15 years.
So while I agree that NOW, today, would be a terrible time to enter the market, renters that have been sitting on the sidelines for years making big rental payments on family homes will not be the big winners. Moisters that got in early and have built up equity and moisters with big incomes – and there are lots of them – in cheap rentals putting aside tons of cash – will be the winners here. If you are 40s plus and think this market will turn quick enough to get your dream home near the city, sorry pal bad news, you missed it.
********************
The the way down – gravity is a bitch. If it makes you fell better, just continue to ignore history.
Most moisters think this is the new normal, just as the boomers did back in their day, just like their parents did and so on and so on.
People have now been introduced to a normal way of thinking and they will go kicking and screaming. Back to playing Pokemon I guess – seams to be the only use of the Internet.
#167 Alex on 11.04.16 at 11:06 am
Rent. Wait. Rent. Wait. Rent. Wait….watch how your money goes away…
I bought my TH in 2011 for 350k, now it priced about 560k (Burlington). Rent is not standing still however – from 1500+utils it goes to 2000+utils, my mortgage is 1300 and taxes 200 per month (thus $500 CHEAPER than renting the SAME townhouse)
You forgot to factor in the equity in your home that could be generating income or growth. — Garth
******************
Better sell to realize that 560K – unless you are in a more desirable area, but even those areas revert to affordability, once buyers become more sparse.
This recently happened in the US, Ireland, Spain, etc etc etc. When has a soft landing ever occurred? Momentum is not your friend on the downward side. You need a constant supply of willing/able buyers and that ain’t happening at the moment. Buyers will fall out of love with real estate as margins continue to tighten and much like the traveling owelympics those left behind will foot the bill.
Re: #194 long time renter on 11.04.16 at 1:39 pm
I’m with you. I’m Generation X technically and am too much of a free spirit and have too much of an addiction to the Okanagan- which hinders my family’s ability to “join the system and buy a house” where we currently live. Not being tied down and having disposable income are things I value, although renting isn’t always great. Thanks for your post, it was encouraging! Wishing to be back in the Okanagan.
—————————————————————
Does anyone have any projections / insight for the South Okanagan and what the $900k-1.1 market will do there with the recent industry changes? Specifically Naramata? A family member needs this to sell:
http://chamberlainpropertygroup.ca/real-estate-listings?view=property&layout=&id=493
#180 S.Bby on 11.04.16 at 12:48 pm
#173 boardway skytrain
You are so deluded in your views it is comical.
I found this rental with 5 seconds of Craigslist searching.
A full 4BR renovated house.
$3000 / 4br – 1800ft2 – >>4 BEDROOM HOUSE COMMERCIAL DRIVE & 1ST AVE, NEWLY REMODELLED<< (VANCOUVER)
https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5860444966.html
Good luck in renting your dump for $5,400. LOL. And remember to declare all your rental income to the CRA.
*****************
Not comical — down right scary. He believes things never change – will always remain that way. As more people work from home, no need to live close to work. Much more is changing and Vancouver is slowing down, dramatically and there is no foreseeable economic prospects on the horizon.
He is playing the old game of…more you repeat it – it much be true. YIKES!
#184 IHCTD9
50 miles out in the middle of nowhere
————————————————
I followed Garth`s plan explained in his books, buying a house with a future, within walking distance to food, doctor , transit and amenities.
Small well built bungalow, energy efficient, nice community/climate, lots of trees and water close by. Life is good !
No more for sale signs around here now , if you want something it`s monster chipboard in a distant cornfield in the low megabucks.
#183 S.Bby on 11.04.16 at 12:57 pm
#52 VancouverRenter on 11.03.16 at 8:27 pm
Suggest you put more effort into researching your next rental. I lease a great place in the city.– Garth
===============================
When i see a term like “forever home” used I can say first of all that this poster is a woman (nothing wrong there); but men do not use that term. Secondly, I know many renters and NO ONE has been forced to move that many times in so short a time frame. As a matter of fact it is only in rare circumstances someone has HAD to move. I know of one instance where the house was sold and the new owners kept the tenancy in place with no rental increase.
I would suspect this post was made by a female realtor pumper trying to spread FUD yet again
*****************
Good renters are hard to come by these days, as everyone with a pulse owns.
I have a friend who also sold his family home and is renting it back – been 4 years now – Victoria. Rents it back cheaper than his mortgage and got the new landlord to repair all the things that he know were wrong, new roof, new windows, new heating system. LOL
#186 traderjim: Why would you pay $300 per month for parking? The are two hidden garages located in key Toronto core areas on the subway line going for about $170 per month. One is on Bloor in Yorkville and the other is just south of Yonge and St. Clair. Each is a 5 minute walk to the subway station.
#190 bdwy sktrn on 11.04.16 at 1:13 pm
as i was planning to head out across howe sound in the sunshine today in my little, 1970’s speedboat, i’m wondering if i will spot christeee clark’s chopper and flotilla as they are about to make an lng announcement at woodfiber.
she is pulling out all the stops to totally crush the dippers in the election.
ndp=no dippers please.
If only to piss off the shrieking eco-nuts i love to see me some fossil fuels being sold eastward.
ng is clean enough to use for centuries. price will come back up eventually.
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Maybe the price was too high in the first place, what makes you think the price will eventually go back up. Russia, US, Qatar, Australia (check out Australia). Just a mouse click away, and with renewables slowly but surely coming online and more and more viable the world will slowly transition, just like they did when the automobile took hold and the horses were put to pasture. Please show us the way to utopia… why hold back.
#196 bdwy sktrn on 11.04.16 at 1:52 pm
SQUAMISH, B.C. — Woodfibre LNG says it is proceeding with its proposed liquefied natural gas development near Squamish, B.C., in what would be the province’s first LNG project.
More to come…
1.6b
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Just another made-up, hyped-up news release to distract away from the corruption with respect to the BC Health Ministry Firings.
Christy Clark and The BC Liberal Party, Health Firings Were About Donations To The BC Liberal Party and Christy Clark`s Powertrip
http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2015/06/christy-clark-and-bc-liberal-party.html
http://pacificgazette.blogspot.ca/2016/11/the-health-care-worker-firings-ctdthe.html
http://pacificgazette.blogspot.ca/2016/11/this-day-in-clarklandthe-immaculate.html
As Bob Mackin notes it’s nothing but a gimmick:
https://twitter.com/bobmackin/status/794598285398839297
This person has tracked LNG for years, pay no attention to his multiple font sizes, read the text.
http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/
Just read something other than realtor or politi-party news. Head out of sand, buddy. You are doing BC residents a disservice.
Ok that was my last post – sorry folks – sometimes one has to challenge the status quo thinking out there.
#193 Samantha on 11.04.16 at 1:37 pm
Until he/she sells the 10% gain is as real as the real estate gain – no more, no less. That being said the US stock market is in a huge bubble, and the bond market is even bigger bubble. This doesn’t mean they will blow up rightaway, however the probability to lose 30% in the stock market within 6 months is higher than the probability for a GTA house to lose 30% of it’s current value within the same 6 months.
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A house inhales cash from your wallet every week, I don’t have to list them off, you should already know what they are. I own my place free and clear, after 15 years and over 100% appreciation in value if I sold it tomorrow I might realize a 1-2% gain if I’m honest about what I’ve got into it. And I’ve done all the maintenance and upgrades on it myself, if I had paid a contractor every time I’d sell at a loss.
My investments have also realized a fat gain over the last 15 years as well, but they have not cost me a dime to own – more like the opposite. Sure they’ve gone up and down, but the long term gains are steady. My financial investments never leaked, blew a pump, never needed a new deck or windows, never made me pay a hydro, heating, insurance, interest or tax bill. Likewise my house never obligated the government to hand me back a thick slice of my paid income taxes, or paid me a dividend.
Houses in superbubbly markets may look like a winner right now, but the GTA is the last on in Canada, and it too will end. Bubbly RE is not the status quo, the status quo is my area where houses are still tied to fundamentals. If a guy actually paid a mortgage over 15-25 years and claims to have made money, it’s because he is not being honest with himself regarding the costs involved every time.
#97 Smoking Man
Im so under rated.
……………………………………………..
Yes. Me too. Except by me. And that’s all that counts, as I am a man. I live to impress no one. Don’t have to. I am already impressed.
Nuke # 189,
“been renting 3 br TH for decades, still under $1,400pm.”
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You paid off some landlords mortgage……
No wonder he’s doing some ‘free’ upgrades.
This is exactly why you can't be bearish on housing when the govt can still borrow at low rates to do more stupid things like inflate home prices again. It just never ends.
Christy Clark Wants You To Be Able To Buy More House Than You Can Afford
Only the bond market or an exogenous shock can stop this market.
Prediction:
Election going to be closer than MSM calling it. Obviously favouring Clinton.
IMO, the ‘Bradley’ effect going to become a common term. I think the hidden 5% Trump support is going to show up on Tuesday.
If that happens, Michigan, Penn, NC, Ohio, and Florida all Republican.
Kiss YVR’s Port goodbye if Nafta is renogotiated.
@Bdwy Skytrn:
BC’s going to miss the opportunity in LNG. They’ve dragged their feet while Australia has actually been doing things. The Aussies will set the market, and BC’s promised windfall will drop by more than half, as projects come online too late.
Wha-waaaaah!
With today’s awful job numbers in Canada, is there any doubt that the BoC needs to engage in policy rate cuts?
The best numbers in months help guarantee no cut. — Garth
The idea that Millennials are different from Boomers is nul and void. All generational labeling through the ages has been reductive and condescending. Us Millennials are the same as Boomers, in that we want the same things out of life, except we are facing different economical barriers and obstacles as a result of our timing of being born. That’s the only difference. Of course I’d love to live downtown, close to everything…but can I afford it? No. So I look for alternatives elsewhere. As are many of my cohorts.
“The best numbers in months help guarantee no cut. — Garth”
23k full time jobs melting away is a good report????
Lesson in Government interference in Markets.
– Within one year we could inflate our homes to triple what they are today….How? Simply loan everyone money with no qualifications. Just like the Government did in 2008.
– A simple monetary principle is used to manipulate markets.
Make easy money available to anyone who breathes and they will buy. When they see everyone else buying they will buy more and more and more.
-Eventually we could see an average home ownership level of 2 homes per Canadian citizen as long as interest rates are Zero and Qualifications are Zero.
-Even with this at some point the buying stops and then the markets starts to decline. Smart money piles out first and the suckers are left with the declining assets.
Our problems right now are a direct result of Government interference in the markets. They are the real Criminals here. The Realtors and the Banks are supporting actors. Kind of like when a pawn shop will knowingly fence stolen goods.
The most dangerous Gang in the world is “White Men in Suits”.
Another Vancouver Renter here.
Been renting for 6 years in SE Vancouver. Rent has gone up every year, total less than $200 in all that time.
If you’re going to rent, be smart about it. My wife and I have six-figure jobs, professional, good references. If you want stability, negotiate a multi-year lease.
There’s nothing that says that you can’t. If a greedy landlord wants to string you along with a series of one-year terms, don’t rent from them! There are a lot of places in Vancouver, and a LOT more available in Burnaby and North Van.
I’ve been in my location for six years, but I’m always on the lookout for a better place: I set up an alert on Craigslist, and in the past few weeks, I’ve received alerts about several places that have been posted for months, but have only recently been re-priced to rents that were below the level where I set my filters.
Rents are falling. Do your research, do your legwork, make a budget, and don’t fool yourself into thinking that your a ‘victim’ of the ‘system’.
I will probably regret this post. My first Metis uncle was court martialled for shooting German POW’s. This was shortly after the battle for Caen where German SS over ran Canadian positions and shot 120+ Canadian prisoners The Canucks were furious. Afterward, Canadian guards were only allowed one round for their rifles. My second uncle punched out an Ottawa tin hit a few days after VE day when he was slurred. He lost just about everything in the court martial after 6 years of fighting and rising to the rank of captain. It angers me.
My third Metis uncle became a prison guard after WW2. His nephew got send to his prison. The kid whined. Fred said just said this was not a vacation but kept his eye over him. The nephew learned about selfish behavior. My father’s brothers never spoke to me since my father seemed to want to keep me as a secret. I do know the eldest uncle was a paratrooper and dropped at Arnhem (a bridge too far). He escaped.
My father had 10 brothers and 3 sisters. They lived in what looked a barn during the dirty thirties in Saskatchewan. I don’t think my mother with her 8 brothers and 3 sisters had it much better nearby. I never understood their saying “too poor to have a pot to piss in” until I got older and saw how they lived during those times. They appeared to be vigorous as early death avoided them.
There was a woman at my last workplace who despised me. I don’t remember piss*ng in her corn flakes but there was something I did that aggravated her (my best guess is that I reminded of her father). She was determined to bring me down and out. She had most of the women in the office attacking me. She couldn’t accept that I was intelligent. I just kept my opinion to myself and ignored her which seemed to infuriate her more. Life got better when she moved to another province and her harpies retired. I feel sorry for the men she and her harpies married. I retired and left that sh*t behind a couple of years later.
I don’t get it. I was raised by a single mother so I am familiar with women issues. My mother would say I was just like my father when she was angry with me. It was water off the back of a duck because he was never around for me. Oh well, life moves on and I will be around for a long time yet.
One of the best perks of moving away from Toronto is not having to drive on 401, seriously. That highway is dangerous because the volume of traffic now is way beyond its design capacity at many locations , especially on and off ramps, transition from local to express, etc. Having many insane drivers that would not stop weaving through the lanes or speeding is not helping either. On the housing price in the suburbs, well, they will just rise with price in 416. People need housing and they cannot afford 416 so 905 is the other choice. For the same reason, condo sales are going up too. Sorry to say the people in Canada would have to settle with lower living standards. At the same time many immigrants from Britain and other places still consider it an improvement over where they came from. Immigration would stop when that is no longer true.
I mean settle for lower living standards.
@#162 Bdwy Sktrn
“I love renters though. who doesn’t love 3/4 of an inch of 20’s handed over every month?
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Yeah, I used to rent from a real genius like you.
He was a cheap, miserable prick.
I insisted on a signed recipt when I paid the rent in cash.
After a moved out.
I mailed them all to the CRA with a note explaining what he was doing in his 4 plex with all the renters.
:)
I have to agree with you there. Those cardboard house in the suburbs will make for terrible investment. The only part of a real estate purchase that will appreciate is the land. And when you buy a property where the value is 10% in the land, 90% in the (shoddy) construction, well.. you get the picture.
I think this issue of poor investment decisions was made worse by the tax on foreign buyers in BC and the expectation of something similar coming to Toronto/GTA. Of course, it would make sense to avoid a market where heavy handed intervention by the government is expected. Buyers should have simply waited for the government to clarify its position, but rushing to buy million dollar properties north of Brampton? Ughhh.