7 March 2019
Annual Report Update | Sector: Cement
ACC
Buy
BSE SENSEX
36,725
S&P CNX
11,058
CMP: INR1,552
TP
: INR 1,853 (+19
%)
Profitability improves despite cost pressure
Increase in working capital impacts cash flow…
We have analyzed ACC’s CY18 annual report and the following are the key takeaways:
East, Central and North regions expected to drive demand over FY18-20E
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
ACC IN
188
291.4 / 4.2
1676 / 1255
10/3/-13
930
45.5
As per the management, India’s total cement capacity stood at 502mt in
CY18 and is expected to reach 550mt by CY20. The cement sector recorded a
growth of ~8.5% during 2018 as compared to ~6% in 2017.
The company expects the East, Central and North regions to drive the
demand, going forward.
As per Indian Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF), in FY 2019, the demand for
cement is likely to grow by 7-8%, led by affordable housing, rural Individual
Home Builders (IHBs) and infrastructure-led activities.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Dec
2018 2019E 2020E
Net Sales
148.0 164.7 178.1
EBITDA
21.2 25.7 29.9
Net Profit
10.8 14.7 17.9
EPS (INR)
57.3 78.4 95.3
EPS Gr. (%)
22.1 36.9 21.6
BV/Sh. (INR)
560.0 621.5 699.9
RoE (%)
10.8 13.3 14.4
RoCE (%)
11.8 13.1 14.2
P/E (x)
27.2 19.8 16.3
P/BV (x)
2.8
2.5
2.2
EV/EBITDA(x)
12.1
9.0
7.1
EV/Ton(USD)
108
97
90
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-18 Sep-18 Dec-17
Promoter
54.5
54.5
54.5
DII
23.6
20.7
17.8
FII
7.2
10.2
13.5
Others
14.7
14.6
14.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
ACC
Sensex - Rebased
Cost pressure arising from higher raw material and fuel prices partly
mitigated by improved efficiency
ACC’s raw material cost was impacted by higher slag prices. Its sustained
efforts to improve flyash absorption enabled the company to reduce the
clinker factor by producing a higher share of blended cement that helped
mitigate the increase in slag prices. The increase in petcoke and coal prices
was mitigated by fuel mix optimization and the use of WHRS. ACC’s freight
cost was impacted by higher FOR sales and a rise in diesel prices, the effects
of which were partly mitigated by route optimization.
During the year, ACC made efforts to reduce the impact of rising electrical
energy cost by partly replacing grid power through the consumption of Open
Access (OA) power from comparatively cheaper sources, resulting in savings
of INR 168m in power cost.
Despite the increase in costs, the company’s EBITDA/t increased by 4% YoY
to INR 745, led by better realization. ACC focused on the sale of premium
products which increased by 36% YoY. Retail constituted 80% of the
company’s sales.
RMC delivers healthy results
ACC’s RMC business has been consistently performing well. Its RMC sales
volume & EBITDA rose by 16% in 2018 as compared to the previous year.
During the year, the RMC business expanded its footprint by adding 18 new
plants in high contribution and high EBITDA margin markets across the
country. With this addition, the company’s nation-wide network of RMC
plants now comprises 75 state-of-the-art units.
Pradnya Ganar – Research Analyst
(Pradnya.Ganar@motilaloswal.com);+91 22 6129 1537
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ACC
Clear capex plans for the future
The company has announced the following expansion plans:
A Greenfield integrated cement plant at Ametha, District Katni, Madhya
Pradesh (clinker capacity of 3mt and cement capacity of 1mt), along with
the expansion of the existing grinding unit in Tikaria, Uttar Pradesh (cement
capacity of 1.6mt) and a third grinding unit also in Uttar Pradesh (cement
capacity of 2.2mt)
1.1mt cement grinding facility at the existing location in Sindri, Jharkhand
The above projects are estimated to cost ~INR30b which is proposed to be
funded through internal accruals.
Increase in working capital and higher taxes impact cash flows
Cash flow from operations before taxes and working capital changes grew by 7%
to INR20.8b due to a strong performance in the current year.
However, an increase of INR3.8b in working capital as compared to an increase
of INR890m in the previous year impacted its cash flow. Also, direct tax paid -
(net of refunds) increased by INR 3.09b, as a result of which, cash flow from
operations after working capital declined by 28% to INR11.2b in CY18.
Total investments remained unchanged during the year, with investments in
subsidiaries, associates and joint ventures at INR 2.26b and other non-current
investments amounting to INR37m.
Capex for the year stood at INR 4.9b as against INR 5.19b in CY17. As a result,
free cash flow declined by 40% YoY to INR 6.2b.
Valuation and view
The company plans to add a capacity of 6mt at a total capex of INR30b (~USD71/t)
that will come on stream over the next three years. The capacity addition will be
funded by internal accruals and will help the company protect its market share in
the central and eastern regions. The profitability gap between ACC and its peers has
narrowed significantly over the last few quarters, led by a higher proportion of (a)
premium sales, and (b) sales from its new cost-efficient units at Jamul and Sindri.
The company has also done well to manage costs through efforts such as increasing
the proportion of linkage coal, reducing the lead distance and route optimization.
Additionally, ACC is making efforts to rationalize its fixed costs. The stock trades at
an attractive valuation of 7x CY 20 EV/EBITDA. We value ACC at 9x CY20E EV/EBITDA
to arrive at a target price of INR1,853.
7 March 2019
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ACC
East, Central and North regions expected to drive demand over FY18-20E
As per the management, India’s total cement capacity stood at 502mt in CY18
and is expected to reach 550mt by CY20. The cement sector recorded a growth
of ~8.5% during 2018 as compared to ~6% in 2017.
The company expects the East, Central and North regions to drive the demand,
going forward.
As per Indian Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF), in FY 2019, the demand for
cement is likely to grow by 7-8%, led by affordable housing, rural Individual
Home Builders (IHBs) and infrastructure-led activities
Exhibit 1: India’s cement capacity to grow at CAGR of 5% over next two years
Capacity(mt)
550
502
2018
2020E
Source: MOFSL, Company
Cost pressure arising from higher raw material and fuel prices partly
mitigated by improved efficiency
ACC’s total cost/t increased by 3% YoY, led by a rise of 5%, 2% and 7% in raw
material cost/t, power and fuel cost/t and freight cost/t, respectively.
Raw material cost/t up by 5% YoY due to:
An increase of 55% in slag prices owing to a surge in demand and the resulting
need to procure long lead sources. ACC’s overall slag consumption cost
increased by INR1.38b.
Purchase of clinker increased by INR950m and purchase of limestone decreased
by INR300m.
Increased usage of cheaper activated gypsum and procurement from cheaper
sources helped reduce gypsum cost by 5%.
Landed cost of flyash fell by 4% YoY on account of increased usage of cheaper
wet flyash and source-mix optimization.
ACC’s sustained efforts to improve its flyash absorption enabled the company to
reduce the clinker factor by producing a higher share of blended cements that
helped mitigate the increase in slag prices.
7 March 2019
3
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ACC
Exhibit 2: Total cost/t increases by 3% YoY (INR/t)
Other expenses/t
Power and fuel cost/t
4,352
937
312
1,316
1,035
750
2017
Employee cost/t
Raw mat cost/t
Freight cost/t
Total cost/t
4,467
923
285
1,412
1,056
791
2018
Source: Company
Power and fuel cost/t increases by 2% YoY due to:
Imported petcoke price rose by 22% YoY. The landed cost of imported and
domestic coal also increased in the range of 9% to 12%.
The company continued with its fuel mix optimization during the year. As a
result of higher pet coke prices, the usage of domestic coal increased to 28% in
2018 as compared to 25% in 2017. The usage of pet coke reduced to 64% as
compared to 67% in 2017.
The company’s waste heat recovery plant at Gagal generated 7.5MW of power,
delivering savings of INR220mn.
Exhibit 4: % of petcoke used fell to 64% in CY18 due to rising
prices
Petcoke %
60%
741
67%
64%
Exhibit 3: Electricity consumption improves in CY18
Electricity Kwh/T of Cement
Coal for kiln K.cal/Kg of clinker
748
742
736
733
730
80
CY14
730
16%
17%
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
84
CY15
89
CY16
84
CY17
81
CY18
CY14
84
CY12
81
CY13
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 5: Key efficiency parameters
Cost of generation at TPP (INR/Kwh)
Average cost of purchased power (INR/Kwh)
Electrical energy efficiency (kwh/t of clinker)
Electrical energy efficiency (kwh/t of cement grinding)
Kiln thermal efficiency (MJ/tonne of clinker)
2017
5.05
6.53
69.9
40.1
3,103
2018 YoY changes
5.39
7%
6.43
-2%
69
-1%
38.5
-4%
3,099
0%
Source: Company
During the year, ACC made efforts to reduce the impact of rising electrical
energy cost by partly replacing grid power with the consumption of OA power
from comparatively cheaper sources.
7 March 2019
4
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ACC
The enhanced intake of solar power through Power Purchase Agreements (PPA)
at Thondebhavi increased OA consumption to 81.3 % in FY18 from 73% in FY17.
At Kudithini, OA power consumption declined to 83.5 % from 87%, in spite of
enhanced intake of solar power. At Gagal, OA power consumption fell to 6.44%
in FY18 from 32% in FY17. In addition, the consumption of OA power was
started at Wadi and Madukkarai with 10% and 5%, respectively of the grid
power consumed. ACC recorded total saving of INR168m in power cost on a
YOY basis
Freight cost/t increase by 7% YoY on account of:
Increase in FOR sales in the current year
Rise in diesel prices
ACC made the following efforts to contain costs through logistics strategies for
improving efficiency:
Improvement in direct dispatches by 1%
Reduction in rail lead by 4% through route optimization. Road lead increased by
2%.
Improvement in operational efficiencies through mode-mix optimization
Long-term traffic contract with the Indian Railways
Road contract benchmarking & negotiation helped to restrict the increase in
road freight
Other expenses increase by 3% YoY
Consumption of packing material cost increased by 16% YoY to INR5.03b, mainly
due to higher volumes. The average price of packing bags also increased by
10.30% due to a rise in the prices of polypropylene granules. The consumption
of bags for premium products also increased in line with the increase in the sale
of premium products.
However, the consumption of stores and spares parts decreased mainly on
account of lower maintenance cost as compared to the previous year through
optimization of shut-down cost. Advertisement expenses declined due to a
decrease in various promotional activities.
Employee expenses up by 7.6% YoY
During the current year, the company incurred an expense of INR700m for its
Employee Separation Scheme to improve manpower productivity.
The company achieved employee cost optimization by implementing strategic
changes and building its operational capabilities. This helped ACC reduce its
employee cost. Its employee head count also declined from 7,422 in 2017 to
6,731 in 2018.
Despite the increase in costs, the company’s EBITDA/t increased by 4% YoY due
to better realization. The company focused on the sale of premium products
which increased by 36% YoY. Retail constituted 80% of the company’s total
sales.
7 March 2019
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ACC
Exhibit 6: Cement realization increases by 3% YoY due to
higher sale of premium products (INR)
Cement Realization
816
572
641
516
497
715
Exhibit 7: Blended EBITDA/t increases by 4% YoY on account
of better realization (INR)
EBITDA/t
745
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
Source: MOFSL, Company
RMC delivers healthy results
ACC’s RMC business has been consistently performing well. Sales volume &
EBITDA of the RMC business rose by 16% in 2018 as compared to the previous
year.
During the year, the RMC business expanded its footprint by adding 18 new
plants in high contribution and high EBITDA margin markets across the country.
With this addition, the company’s nation-wide network of RMC plants now
comprises 75 state-of-the-art units.
A keen focus on day-to-day sales, rigorous business tracking mechanism, well-
defined pricing policy and increase in the sales of “Value Added Solutions” (VAS)
were some of the key drivers of the success witnessed by the RMC business in
FY18.
Exhibit 9: RMC business’ margins remain healthy
volume growth (%)
32%
RMC EBITDA (INR mn)
RMC EBITDA margin (%)
10.1% 10.2%
7.0%
Exhibit 8: RMC volumes up by 16% YoY
RMC volumes (mn cu mtr)
3%
-12%
1.5
CY12
1.6
CY13
10%
13%
5%
16%
4.5%
2.9%
0.4%
24
196
347
5.6%
1.7
CY14
2.0
CY15
2.1
CY16
2.7
CY17
3.2
CY18
554
745
1,150
1,338
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Clear capex plans for the future
During the year, the company capitalized property, plant and equipment worth
INR4.25b, consisting mainly of routine maintenance capex. Depreciation on
property, plant and equipment for the year amounted to INR5.95b.
The company has announced the following expansion plans:
A Greenfield integrated cement plant at Ametha in district Katni, Madhya
Pradesh (clinker capacity of 3mt and cement capacity of 1mt), along with
the expansion of the existing grinding unit at Tikaria, Uttar Pradesh (cement
7 March 2019
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ACC
capacity of 1.6mt) and a third grinding unit also in Uttar Pradesh (cement
capacity of 2.2mt)
1.1mt cement grinding facility at the existing location at Sindri, Jharkhand
The above projects are estimated to cost ~INR 30b which is proposed to be
funded through internal accruals.
Increase in working capital impacts operating cash flows
The cash flow from operations before taxes and working capital changes grew
by 7% to INR20.8b due to a strong performance in the current year.
Direct tax paid - (net of refunds) increased by INR3.09b. During the previous
year, the company received an income tax refund of INR1.3b for the earlier
years upon completion of the assessment years.
Also, an increase of INR3.88b in working capital as compared to an increase of
INR890m in the previous year impacted the cash flow. As a result, the cash flow
from operations after working capital declined by 28% to INR11.2b in CY18.
There was an increase in working capital due to an increase in inventory and
receivable days. Inventory days increased from 38.6 days in CY17 to 41.4 days in
CY18, led by an increase in the inventory of cement and coal. The inventory of
linkage coal increased as coal companies cleared the backlog for the earlier
period. The corresponding advance given for the supply of linkage coal also
declined.
Receivable days increased from 18.4 days in CY17 to 21.4 days in CY18 due to an
increase in receivables of both the cement and RMC businesses.
Exhibit 10: OCF declines from INR16b in CY17 to INR11b in CY18 (INR bn)
Operating cash flow
Capex
FCFF
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
Source: MOFSL, Company
Borrowings
Short-term borrowings decreased from INR591.7m in CY17 to nil in CY18 as ACC
repaid its borrowings from ACC Mineral Resources Limited, a wholly-owned
subsidiary company. ACC’s long-term borrowings remained at zero.
Investments
Total investments remained unchanged during the year, with investments in
subsidiaries, associates and joint ventures at INR2.26b and other non-current
investments amounting to INR37m.
7 March 2019
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ACC
Incentives
Total incentives booked in CY18 amounted to INR1.62b as against INR1.51b in
CY17. Total incentives receivables increased by 29% in CY18 to INR5.3b.
Valuation and View
ACC plans to add 6mt of capacity at a total capex of INR30b (~USD71/t) that will
come on stream over the next three years. The capacity addition will be funded by
internal accruals and will help the company protect its market share in the central
and eastern regions. The profitability gap between ACC and its peers has narrowed
significantly over the last few quarters, led by a higher proportion of (a) premium
sales, and (b) sales from its new cost-efficient units at Jamul and Sindri. The
company has also done well to manage costs through efforts such as increasing the
proportion of linkage coal, reducing the lead distance and route optimization.
Additionally, ACC is making efforts to rationalize its fixed costs. The stock trades at
an attractive valuation of 7x CY 20 EV/EBITDA. We value ACC at 9x CY20E EV/EBITDA
to arrive at a target price of INR1,853.
7 March 2019
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ACC
Story in charts
Exhibit 11: Utilization improves by 7pp to 86% in CY18
Capacity (mt)
Despatch (mt)
Cap. Util (%)
96
92
86
Exhibit 12: Cement EBITDA/t increases by 4% YoY (INR)
77
79
78
79
77
69
79
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 13: Margins remain flat YoY in CY18
17.9
EBITDA (INR mn)
17.7
12.5 10.9
10.3
Margin (%)
13.4 14.1 14.3
15.6
16.8
Exhibit 14: Return ratios improve
ROCE (%)
ROE (%)
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
7 March 2019
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ACC
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E December
Net Sales
Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Int. and Fin. Charges
Other Income - Rec.
PBT Before EO Item
EO Income/(Expense)
PBT After EO Item
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Balance Sheet
Y/E December
Share Capital
Fully Diluted Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv.
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Others
Curr. Liab. and Prov.
Account Payables
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds
E: MOFSL Estimates
CY14
1,14,811
5.2
1,02,310
12,501
-8.6
10.9
-5,576
-828
4,561
10,658
3,786
14,444
2,761
19.1
11,683
7,897
-7.3
6.9
CY15
1,14,328
-0.4
1,02,597
11,731
-6.2
10.3
-6,521
-673
4,834
9,371
-1,532
7,840
1,924
24.5
5,916
7,447
-5.7
6.5
CY16
1,09,897
-3.9
95,160
14,737
25.6
13.4
-6,052
-826
1,283
9,143
-428
8,715
2,244
25.8
6,471
6,899
-7.4
6.3
CY17
1,32,846
20.9
1,14,097
18,749
27.2
14.1
-6,401
-1,023
1,317
12,642
342
12,984
3,829
29.5
9,155
8,813
27.7
6.6
CY18
1,48,014
11.4
1,26,864
21,150
12.8
14.3
-5,996
-892
1,385
15,647
4,303
19,949
4,883
24.5
15,066
10,764
22.1
7.3
CY19E
1,64,747
11.3
1,39,014
25,733
21.7
15.6
-6,219
-900
1,850
20,464
0
20,464
5,730
28.0
14,734
14,734
36.9
8.9
(INR Million)
CY20E
1,78,068
8.1
1,48,139
29,929
16.3
16.8
-6,502
-900
2,350
24,877
0
24,877
6,965
28.0
17,911
17,911
21.6
10.1
(INR Million)
CY20E
1,880
1,880
1,29,700
1,31,580
0
6,631
1,38,211
94,274
31,001
63,273
23,922
2,302
1,17,104
20,194
10,446
52,705
33,760
68,390
22,156
43,100
3,133
48,715
1,38,211
CY14
1,880
1,879
80,477
82,356
0
5,356
87,712
1,09,507
53,523
55,984
19,146
15,730
35,853
12,556
4,107
3,043
16,147
39,002
24,469
4,000
10,532
-3,148
87,712
CY15
1,880
1,879
82,551
84,430
355
4,692
89,477
1,23,603
60,044
63,559
13,000
14,757
37,092
11,886
4,844
916
19,446
38,931
31,339
0
7,592
-1,839
89,477
CY16
1,880
1,879
86,439
88,319
500
4,474
93,293
81,295
6,045
75,250
2,608
2,585
53,953
12,238
5,361
19,451
16,904
41,103
12,569
26,600
1,934
12,850
93,293
CY17
1,880
1,879
91,775
93,655
592
5,414
99,660
84,799
12,389
72,410
2,617
2,302
71,560
14,040
6,682
26,954
23,884
49,229
18,105
29,192
1,932
22,331
99,660
CY18
1,880
1,880
1,03,397
1,05,277
0
6,631
1,11,908
88,774
18,280
70,494
3,922
2,302
83,533
16,786
8,683
30,003
28,062
48,343
19,227
27,448
1,668
35,190
1,11,908
CY19E
1,880
1,880
1,14,961
1,16,841
0
6,631
1,23,471
91,274
24,499
66,775
11,922
2,302
1,06,198
18,683
9,664
46,616
31,234
63,725
20,950
39,876
2,899
42,473
1,23,471
7 March 2019
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ACC
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E December
Basic (INR)
EPS
Consolidated EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dividend Yield
EV/ton (USD-Cap)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Working Capital Ratios
Debtor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E December
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Interest & Finance Charges
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
Others
CF from Operating incl EO
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Others
CF from Investments
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
CY14
42.0
42.0
71.7
438.2
34.0
63.6
CY15
39.6
39.6
74.3
449.3
17.0
65.1
CY16
36.7
36.7
68.9
470.0
0.0
59.4
CY17
46.9
46.9
80.9
498.4
0.1
64.2
CY18
57.3
57.3
89.2
560.0
0.0
21.0
CY19E
78.4
78.4
111.5
621.5
0.0
21.5
CY20E
95.3
95.3
129.9
699.9
0.0
17.7
37.0
21.7
2.2
20.3
3.5
2.2
116
39.2
20.9
2.3
22.5
3.5
1.1
120
42.4
22.6
2.4
18.2
3.3
0.0
113
33.2
19.2
2.0
13.9
3.1
0.0
110
27.2
17.4
1.7
12.1
2.8
0.0
108
19.8
13.9
1.4
9.0
2.5
0.0
97
16.3
12.0
1.2
7.1
2.2
0.0
90
9.8
10.9
11.4
13
1
8.9
8.6
7.1
15
0.8
8.0
8.1
10.0
18
0.8
9.7
10.0
12.8
18
0.8
10.8
11.8
16.0
21
0.8
13.3
13.1
20.3
21
0.7
14.4
14.2
27.7
21
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(INR Million)
CY20E
24,877
6,502
900
-6,965
-153
25,160
0
25,160
-15,000
10,160
0
0
-15,000
0
0
-900
-3,172
0
-4,072
6,089
46,616
52,705
CY14
11,352
5,576
-1,342
-2,354
428
13,660
-343
13,317
-15,244
-1,927
415
7,893
-6,937
0
-350
-491
-6,445
-1,085
-8,371
-1,991
5,034
3,043
CY15
7,840
8,052
-263
-2,289
579
13,920
693
14,612
-11,643
2,970
222
1,491
-9,930
0
355
-415
-5,617
-1,134
-6,810
-2,128
3,043
916
CY16
8,715
6,089
171
-2,717
1,764
14,021
-220
13,801
-4,976
8,826
212
13,699
8,935
2
117
-478
-3,192
-650
-4,201
18,535
916
19,451
CY17
12,984
6,438
104
-2,177
-890
16,459
-912
15,548
-5,194
10,354
625
745
-3,824
0
42
-420
-3,192
-650
-4,221
7,503
19,451
26,954
CY18
14,943
6,024
-129
-5,265
-3,881
11,692
-511
11,181
-4,951
6,230
334
896
-3,720
0
-606
-409
-2,817
-579
-4,411
3,050
26,954
30,003
CY19E
20,464
6,219
900
-5,730
9,330
31,183
0
31,183
-10,500
20,683
0
0
-10,500
0
0
-900
-3,170
0
-4,070
16,613
30,003
46,616
7 March 2019
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ACC
NOTES
7 March 2019
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ACC
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within
following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL)* is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations,
is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a
subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock
Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) & National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository
participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for
distribution of financial products. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf
MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy
or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other
compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have
any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even though
there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report
MOSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should
be aware that MOSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant
banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are available on the website at
https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental
research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from
MOSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or
use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong
Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst
Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of
research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity
to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these
securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not
located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state
laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with
the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment
services provided by MOSL , including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to
"Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This
document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only
available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the
U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct
business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International
Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S.
registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets
services license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore.As per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and
Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL in
respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”, of
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SFA”). Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and
inform MOCMSPL.
Specific Disclosures
1 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.
2 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
3 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
4 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report
5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company
6 MOSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
7 MOSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
8 MOSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
9 MOSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
****************************************************************
****************************************************************
7 March 2019
13
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ACC
The associates of MOSL may have:
- financial interest in the subject company
- actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
- received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
- other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even
though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
- acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
- be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies)
discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
- received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOSL also earns DP income from clients
which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may
not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of
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information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation
of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is
prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for
the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as customers by
virtue of their receiving this report.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed,
in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose
and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report
constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities
discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives,
financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document
should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including
the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be
suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial
risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions
contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as
endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and
alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect
or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment
banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and
independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the
views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other
person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of
or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL
to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of
investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees,
agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in
connection with the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all
responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or
any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and
delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer:
Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-38281085.
Registration details: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412.
AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual
Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is
a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. *Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate
products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing registration no(s) of MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.
7 March 2019
14