Urbanized suburbs are the future, experts say

Suburbs will increasingly look like cities and older urban areas will need to become more family-friendly if they are to cope with shifting demographics, two experts told state and local economic-development officials Thursday.

“You need to toss out the differences between cities and suburbs,” said Chris Leinberger, a land-use strategist and president of Locus, a development firm.

The real-estate downturn and recession have limited the expansion of new suburbs and exurbs, Leinberger told attendees at the fall conference of the Economic Development Council of Colorado on Thursday in Denver.

“My hypothesis is that a majority of development will go into 10 percent of land,” he predicted, pointing to Atlanta as an example.

Once known for sprawl, Atlanta has seen 60 percent of recent development projects go into 1 percent of its land area.

Denver inner-urban areas once considered slums, such as Lower Downtown and the Highland neighborhood, are commanding some of the highest home prices and rents in the metro area, Leinberger said.

That revitalization is spreading into older ring suburbs, with areas such as Golden, Arvada, Lakewood and Wheat Ridge focused on creating more walkable and higher-density neighborhoods.

Joel Kotkin, another expert on development trends, said millennials, those born between 1977 and 1992, may prefer the urban life until they want to start families. Immigrants are increasingly choosing more affordable suburbs, too, over pricier cities.

Although experts have long forecast that baby boomers, the generation born between 1946 and 1964, will leave their empty suburban nests and lawn mowers behind for city living, about three-quarters plan to age in place, Kotkin said.

“Suburbs will have to accommodate a senior population they weren’t designed to handle,” he said.

A tough economy has made it harder for millennials to afford transportation, breaking a century-long trend of increasing dependence on the auto and resulting in more people working from home.

Core cities will need to work harder to appeal to families by creating affordable housing, reducing crime and improving schools, Kotkin said.

They will also need to manage the growing divide between the rich who can afford to live in revitalized areas and those too poor to afford to leave the run-down neighborhoods, Kotkin warned.

Aldo Svaldi: 303-954-1410, asvaldi@denverpost.com or twitter.com/aldosvaldi