Getting the measure of Wolverhampton nearly a Triple Dream!

Yesterdays Wolverhampton exercise, although inconclusive proved extremely enlightening. Having two 2yo races at the start of the card did little in assisting us in an early prediction of the going for the remainder of the card. This was further exasperated in the second race by the horse likely to win, Pendo, swerving and dumping jockey Martin Harley on the sand. The time returned for the race was in all essence that recorded by the horse likely to finish second prior to Martin Harley's untimely exit.

As you will see in the charts that follow, posted on the subscriber blog prior to yesterdays meeting, I was fully expecting the going to be between the margins off 0.50 - 1.00 on the slow side. In retrospect, I feel that the course was more between 1.00-2.00!  

With only two races of the six having sufficient data for analysis, the first of which was the third race, my indecision on the state of the course found me flip-flopping between Triple Dream and Dangerous Age (see chart below)

Based upon my predicted going Triple Dream looked the most favourable candidate. The dilemma being that the times returned in the first two races suggested that it was slower than anticipated which pointed more towards Dangerous Age with Howyadoingnotsobad declared a non-runner. With Triple Dream at 33-1 and Dangerous Age at around 6-1 before a late plunge down to 11-4, I opted for the value of 33-1, but only for a small stake. 

Seeing them finish 1st and 2nd with Rylee Mooch finishing 3rd at 16-1 certainly left me feeling that the exercise was not a waste of time and had potential to be very lucrative.

The only other race with sufficient depth of data to analyse was the Wolverhampton 8:10. Which also offered itself as an ideal opportunity to clear up some confusion over my use of the word trend-line in yesterdays post!

As this was the last race I was feeling fairly comfortable by now that the going was indeed slower than anticipated but had a lack of data for that end of the scale (1.00 - 2.00) so decided to take measurement by putting in a linear trend line in my spreadsheet. Here is the resulting data:

To make the chart less of a jumble I have taken out the horses that drop off the chart, plus Lyric Street and Ultimate (not raced on the surface) it was clear that Azrag had a distinct advantage on anything slower than standard. And so it was at 8-1

The object of this exercise was purely to get around the going inconsistency at Wolverhampton and I was surprised by my indecision on the actual going allowance to allocate once racing started and I had the first returns. Whether there is scope to use this outside of Wolverhampton will be interesting and perhaps this evenings meeting at Kempton Park will enlighten me more.

Good Luck today with your selections today :)