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The 10 Best States For Future Job Growth

This article is more than 7 years old.

No state was hit harder by the Great Recession than Nevada, whose economy depends heavily on tourism, gaming and construction. Nevada lost 14% of its workforce from the peak in May 2007, and unemployment reached 14.1%. Foreclosures hit nearly 10% of Nevada homes and 71% of Las Vegas homeowners owed more on their homes than they were worth, according to Zillow. Homeowners and the state were underwater.

But Sin City and the state as a whole have recovered and are poised for further growth. Nevada reached an important milestone this summer when it became one of the last states to return to its peak pre-recession employment level. The gains are not expected to stop. Nevada is projected to add jobs at a 2.6% annual rate through 2020, which is the best forecast of any state, based on data from Moody’s Analytics.

Casinos remain the biggest employers in Nevada with more than 370,000 people working in the industry (total state employment is 1.3 million). Gaming revenue is still more than 10% below its peak of $12.8 billion in 2007, but Nevada has worked to diversify its economy in recent years.

Electric car company Tesla is building a $5 billion battery “gigafactory” in the Nevada desert outside Reno scheduled to open in 2018. It will generate 6,500 “direct” jobs and 22,700 “indirect” jobs, according to the state. It was a big bet for Nevada, which provided tax credits that could reach $1.3 billion over 20 years.

EBay announced plans to invest more than $400 million in the state last year to expand its data operations. Apple and Microsoft also have a presence in the state.

There is a strong entrepreneurial atmosphere in Nevada as well. Nevada has the highest rate of startups, according to the Kauffman Foundation’s Index of Startup Activity with 107 startups per 1,000 employer businesses.

Tourism remains the lifeblood of Nevada. Las Vegas hit a new record last year with 42.3 million visitors to the city that helped generate $254 million in county taxes from hotel rooms. Las Vegas hosted 21,000 conventions with 5.9 delegates last year, up 13%.

The state hopes more tourists will come for a proposed football stadium in the works to draw the NFL's Oakland Raiders to the desert. Like Tesla, the state is willing to pay up to lure the Raiders. Last month, the Nevada State Legislature approved $750 million in public funding for a proposed $1.8 billion stadium. Several hurdles remain for the plan, including the need of NFL owners to approve the relocation from Oakland to Las Vegas. While Las Vegas waits on the Raiders, the city will get its first major pro sports franchise next year when the NHL's Las Vegas expansion team kicks off play at the T-Mobile Arena.

Florida is projected to have the second-best job growth over the next five years at 2.3% annually. The Sunshine State should also have gross state product growth (top forecast in the U.S.) and income growth (fourth best) during that time. Like Nevada, much of the expected job gains revolve around hospitality, construction and real estate.

“The structural advantages that Florida enjoys—low costs of living and doing business, warm climate, and leisure time amenities like beaches and attractions like Disney World in Orlando—will propel the above-average gains,” says Edward Friedman, an economist who tracks Florida for Moody’s Analytics.

The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area on the Gulf Coast of Mexico is projected to have the fastest job growth of any metro area over the next five years at 3.9% compared to 1.4% for the entire U.S.

Rounding out the five best states for future job growth are Utah, Arizona and Oregon. Western states dominate the action with seven of the top 10. Utah ranks first for the third straight year for its overall business climate in Forbes annual Best States for Business thanks to its educated labor force, pro-business regulatory climate and growth prospects.

Job seekers might want to zero in on Utah and Colorado. In addition to strong job growth forecasts, both states have current unemployment rates around 3.5% making for a tight labor market. Incomes are also higher than in many of the other states where hospitality jobs dominate. The median household income in Colorado is $63,909 and $62,912 in Utah compared to less than $50,000 in Florida, Idaho and South Carolina.

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