Florida played a big role in Trump's surprising win
Anchoring Donald Trump’s shocking rise to the presidency, his Florida victory began with a small team in Sarasota and followed the same formula that propelled him nationally: Dominate the white vote in suburban and rural areas, win over independents and hold down his opponent’s margins with key Democratic constituencies.
Trump did it by campaigning relentlessly in Florida, using the force of his outsized personality and an aggressively anti-establishment, “America first” message to mobilize voters distrustful of elites and disenchanted with politics as usual.
In the process, the GOP candidate threw out some of the old rules for winning Florida. In a large state where money for advertising and voter turnout efforts tends to be crucial, Trump was badly outspent but compensated by commanding media attention with large, raucous rallies. He also built an incredibly enthusiastic volunteer base.
Trump’s Florida victory was not as surprising as the Rust Belt wins that tipped the scale for him. Polls showed him tied with Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton here in the final days of the campaign.
Both candidates performed well among their bases in Florida – Trump won 89 percent of Republicans according to exit polls and Clinton 91 percent of Democrats – but Trump won Florida’s sizable chunk of independent voters by four percentage points.
In particular, independent men helped deliver Florida to Trump. He won the group by seven percentage points while tying Clinton with independent women.
Independent voter Gerald Terrell, 71, said Trump’s message on trade resonated with him. He worked at a General Electric plant in Virginia that “moved slowly to Mexico and India.” Trump’s brash personality did not bother Terrell.
“He’s rough talking, but sometimes things need to be said,” Terrell said.
Trump also benefited from Clinton’s inability to match Obama’s performance with three pillars of the Democratic base. She won a smaller percentage of women, voters under 29 and African Americans in Florida than President Barack Obama did in 2012, according to exit polls.
Clinton aggressively went after the female vote, highlighting derogatory comments Trump made about women in the past. It also seemed like Clinton would benefit from the release of a recording in which Trump used graphic language to brag about grabbing women by the genitals, and from a string of women who came forward in the final month of the campaign to accuse Trump of inappropriate touching or sexual advances. Many women voters stuck with Trump, though.
"I look at his daughters, the women in his life, they're strong women," said Bradenton teacher Sadie Montanus, 23, who was celebrating Trump's victory early Wednesday morning at a party hosted by the Sarasota GOP.
And even though Trump — a candidate known for his inflammatory remarks about Mexican immigrants — lost the Hispanic vote in Florida by a larger margin than 2012 GOP candidate Mitt Romney, he compensated with an overpowering performance among whites.
Trump won 64 percent of whites, who constitute the bulk of the electorate in Florida, compared to 61 percent for Romney.
Not only did Trump win big in heavily white and heavily conservative areas such as Southwest Florida, where he beat Romney’s margin of victory by four percentage points in Sarasota County and five percentage points in Manatee County. He also performed well in whiter areas of the all-important Interstate 4 corridor region, the most fought over battleground in America’s largest battleground state and an area with many swing voters.
Trump won Pinellas County, which includes the cities of Clearwater and St. Petersburg and went for Obama in 2012, on the west end of I-4. He also improved on Romney’s margins of victory elsewhere in the region. At the east end of the I-4 corridor in Volusia County, which includes the city of Daytona Beach, Trump won by 13 percentage points. Romney won Volusia by one point.
All told, Trump drew a larger percentage of the vote than Romney in 51 Florida counties. Clinton performed better than Obama in seven counties.
Trump’s hard line stance on illegal immigration, calls for better trade deals, proposal to temporarily ban Muslim immigrants and other positions appear to have resonated with many voters, along with his blunt, unscripted approach and pledge to take on a Washington, D.C., establishment many view as corrupt.
“It’s people who feel like nobody has listened and nothing ever changes not matter who you put in,” said Sarasota GOP chairman Joe Gruters, the co-chair of Trump’s Florida campaign and one of his earliest supporters in the state.
Gruters jumped on board with Trump more than a year ago, back when former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen Marco Rubio seemed like safer bets to win the GOP nomination. No leading Florida Republicans were backing Trump at the time.
"I saw a winner," Gruters said. "Success breeds success."
Gruters pushed to have Trump's Florida headquarters in downtown Sarasota. He worked with a handful of paid staffers to deliver a big primary win for Trump in Florida over Rubio.
Trump, who lives part of the year in Palm Beach County, became a near constant presence in the state, attracting more than 10,000 people to some of his rallies. He held two rallies in Sarasota that filled Robarts Arena, including one on the day before Election Day.
Throughout the presidential campaign, Trump has attracted more passionate followers than any other candidate. Some of his supporters began lining up the night before to see him in Sarasota. Many wondered if that enthusiasm would translate into electoral success. It did.
Venice real estate agent Andrew Clark admires Trump's "honesty and straight forwardness." He was one of the first in line to see the candidate in Sarasota Monday.
"He says it like it is," Clark said. "Which is refreshing for American politics."