Every year, the team of futurists, analysts, and consultants in Frost & Sullivan’s Visionary Innovation Group takes a pause from looking at 10-year horizons and comes together to identify the trends that will make the biggest impact in the coming year.
Looking at our predictions from last year, we were particularly accurate in our assertions regarding the Fintech revolution, augmented reality, the cyber battlefront, millennial power, online marketplaces, and a jobless future. 2016 saw Fintech market revenues double and the explosion of augmented reality with global Pokémon GO mania. Next year we expect augmented reality to play a more prominent role in B2B applications. On the cyber battlefront, we predicted that governments and corporations would face increasing cyber security and cyber policy struggles. This played out in the US election as outside forces contributed hacked information to the campaign discourse. Millennials wielded their power, also bringing a show of force to the US election with the unexpected rise of Bernie Sanders. Online marketplaces continued to make gains, with online “click” sales outpacing growth of in-store “brick” sales, and B2B launches such as BMW’s online parts marketplace in Germany. We saw the dragon stumble and the elephant run; China’s growth slowed to less than 7%, and India saw good growth and strong policies addressing red tape with demonetization. As for a jobless future, the world saw increased inquiry into the implications of a universal basic income, political focus on loss of jobs due to automation, and the mobilization of blue-collar workers in the US and UK to protect their jobs.
One prediction where we got it wrong, as most did, was on the world coming together to agree on trade issues. The spectacular rise of Donald Trump and the vote for BREXIT obliterated the trajectory of collaborative trade in the near future. That is why this year, as we develop our full study, we will include outlier predictions for each topic that give our readers a view into these seemingly far-fetched scenarios.
Read our Top 16 Trends for 2016 and decide for yourself.
As we look to 2017, we see several common themes emerging: the impacts of major votes, the evolution of “smart,” and the long-awaited emergence of much buzzed about technologies. Understanding the impacts of major political votes will be essential to reducing uncertainty, so we have taken a look at these scenarios, as well as the continuation of these political movements. We also look at the changing nature of AI, IoT and smart devices—from the personal assistant interfaces that will increasingly act as the conduit between us and the digital world, to smart devices becoming so integrated in our businesses and lives that they become a commodity, and, finally, the emergence of sentient tools that move us beyond rote automation to context-aware tools. Lastly, we look at the implications of many buzzed about technologies taking off—autonomous vehicles, space flight accessibility, drones, and robotic societies.
We would love to hear your comments on whether you agree or disagree with our predictions.
AI Personal Assistant Race for Dominance
With the launch of Google Assistant, a cross-device move for Apple’s Siri onto Macbooks, and an expanded product line for Amazon Alexa taking place in 2016, we saw the titans of tech laying the groundwork to gain control of our emerging primary digital interface. We can expect each of these companies to build on their unique strengths as they pursue strategies that will give them greater presence across devices, use cases, and geographies.
From Smart Homes to Connected Living Solutions
In 2016 we saw the emergence of Apple Home on iPhone home screens, the launch of Google Home, and a line expansion of Amazon Echo, bringing together disparate smart home devices into cohesive ecosystems. Partnerships that expand these ecosystems will be the short-term focus, but the strength of each company’s AI will ultimately determine the connected home winner. Amazon Echo shows advantage in the short term, but we’ll be looking for strong improvements in Google Home and an Apple Home device launch.
The Global Impact of President Trump
The surprise win from this US presidential candidate is likely to upend past trade norms and traditional global relationships. While NAFTA changes may not be as dramatic as the Trump campaign promised, expect notable shifts in US relationships with Asia and Europe. Based on what Trump can do unilaterally, there is likely to be a significant pullback in current environmental policies, growth in the US energy sector, and strengthened trade partnerships between Asian countries.
Impact of BREXIT
Another surprise political shift in 2016, the exit process is expected to commence by March and negotiations to begin before the end of 2017. Multiple relationship models between the UK and the EU have the potential to develop, but the uncertainty surrounding the outcome may drive inflation up, British currency and GDP down, and hesitancy in investment decisions.
Increasing Global Isolationism
Trump trade policies, BREXIT, and political positioning in Asia have marked a global shift toward isolationism that we can expect to have significant effects on trade and immigration policies around the world. Looking to the Italian referendum in 2016 and the 2017 elections taking place in France and Germany, what were once considered outside political positions will be viewed with more scrutiny and legitimacy. The increased prominence of former outsiders will advance a global move toward isolationism.
IoT Pivots to Sentient Tools
As IoT goes mainstream, companies will turn their focus to sentient tools. Sentient tools are aware of their context, environment, and social interactions. As technologies such as cloud-based AI, collaborative robots, and ever-more sophisticated machine-learning algorithms begin to converge, we will start to see the emergence of these capabilities in smart cars, homes, and manufacturing.
The Industrial IoT Ecosystem Play
2016 saw the launch of multiple IoT ecosystems for industrial applications. In 2017 we can expect even more players to enter this market, creating congestion in the space, thinner margins, and greater segmentation. Industry players will be jockeying for position and setting up partnerships as they are developing their own ecosystems. We may be on the verge of witnessing an Android vs. Apple iOS battle on an industrial scale.
IoT Platforms become a Commodity
2017 will be the year of the platform play. Every industry and organization that is not currently in the market with a platform will develop one. As these platforms proliferate, commoditization will begin to set in, leading to ever-greater efforts for differentiation. Look for increasingly unique solutions and customer experiences to emerge in the IoT platform space.
Cognitive is the New Smart
What was once “smart” is now “cognitive.” We are witnessing relatively simple smart devices such as meters, lighting, or machines evolve with artificial intelligence enhancements that provide more sensory, context-aware, and complex capabilities. Cognitive technology is driving this evolution with self-learning abilities modeled on the human brain. Savvy organizations will embed cognitive capabilities into their products and solutions in 2017.
Horizontal Realization
The digital revolution is breaking down silos. Cross-pollination between functional roles, products, and industries will hit its stride in 2017. We will see this phenomenon amplified in the automotive space with greater collaboration between tier-one auto manufacturers, automation software developers, and peer-to-peer providers, among a number of other industry players.
The Mainstreaming of Augmented Reality for B2B
2016 ushered in the mainstreaming of augmented reality, epitomized by the runaway success of Pokémon GO. This year, we expect to see that success translate into the mainstreaming of augmented reality for business-to-business applications. Businesses will increasingly take advantage of off-the-shelf products, improvements in industrial accuracy capabilities, and the learnings of early adopting industries. Expect to see the largest scale adoption in organizations with skilled workforces.
Data-as-a-Service Explosion
As Big Data has become increasingly institutionalized, with a greater proportion of businesses gaining more sophisticated methods of collecting and harnessing data insights, these companies have incurred mounting costs from collecting and holding data. To offset these costs, gain new revenue streams, and simultaneously access new data sources, we will see the breakout of data-as-a-service (DaaS) strategies. These strategies will take advantage of both volume and variety of data, emerging data brokers, and increasingly accessible analysis interfaces.
China Becomes a Hyper-robotic Society
China has already positioned itself as the biggest robotic market on the globe, despite lagging far behind industrialized peers in robotic density. With significant gains expected in human-to-robot ratios next year, China may begin to exert its potential as “untouchable” in robotics.
Rise of the Halal Economy
From food to fashion, the Halal market is emerging as a new growth sector within the global economy and is rapidly creating a strong presence across developed countries. The most promising Halal markets include the Middle East, Asia, Europe and the Americas. With a growing consumer base across the globe, the Halal economy is poised to become a competitive force in international trade.
Drone Deliveries Take Off
A convenience store order marked the first commercial drone delivery in 2016. With Amazon expected to complete its first drone delivery in the UK and Walmart expected to begin deploying them in the US next year, 2017 will be a turning point for the skies.
Space Exploration Takes Off
Space exploration is reaching a tipping point. Reduced costs are being driven by reusable flight systems, increased payloads, and machine-learning algorithms. NASA will also be launching missions in 2017, further advancing the opportunities in space.
Level-3 Autonomous Vehicles Take Off
2017 will usher in the launch of the first level-3 autonomous vehicle—a vehicle that is able to fully take over from the driver. Watch for evidence-based implications of the autonomous driving shift. Adoption, crashes, laws, usage, and a host of other factors will point to the future of this industry.
This article was written with contribution from Principal Consultant Lauren Martin-Taylor and the Visionary Innovation Group at Frost & Sullivan based on new research being developed for the forthcoming “Top 17 Trends for 2017” analysis.
