Here's why this could be a very rare March in N.J.

If you think Mother Nature is a bit out of step these days, you're right. February and March temperatures have been flip-flopped in New Jersey this winter.

Last month was the warmest February on record in the Garden State, with several spurts of spring-like weather. And March has behaved more like a typical February, with lots of chilly days and, in most parts of the state, bigger snow accumulations.

In fact, March could end up being a colder month than February -- an oddity that has occurred in New Jersey only two times in the past 122 years, according to New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson.

The last time the average statewide temperature in the Garden State was colder in March than February was in March 1984, said Robinson, who teaches at Rutgers University and oversees the New Jersey Weather & Climate Network. It also happened in March 1960.

In 1960, Robinson noted, it was the state's second coldest March on record. This March has not been unbearably frigid, even though many days have had temperatures below average. So, if March does end up being colder than February, it will have more to do with last month's record-breaking warmth than with this month being brutally cold, Robinson said.

In February, the average statewide temperature -- the average of the daily highs and daily lows in each region of the state -- was 40.1 degrees. The normal February temperature in New Jersey is 33.5 degrees, so last month was 6.6 degrees warmer than usual and almost as mild as it usually is in March.

Newark and NYC on track

With a few more days remaining before the calendar closes out the current month, both Newark and New York City are on track to have a colder March than February, said Tom Morrin, observation program leader at the National Weather Service's regional office in Upton, N.Y.

"We certainly are on pace for that," Morrin said on Monday. "It definitely is something in the realm of happening."

In New York City's Central Park, the average temperature so far this month, from March 1 through March 27, has been 38.3 degrees. That's 3.5 degrees below normal and 3.3 degrees colder than the average temperature in February, which was 41.6 degrees.

The last time March was colder than February in Central Park was 1984, the weather service said.

In Newark, the average temperature so far this month has been 39.0 degrees, which is 2.4 degrees below normal and 2.6 degrees colder than the average temperature recorded in February at Newark Liberty International Airport.

Philadelphia is on pace to end the month about 1 degree cooler than it normally is in March, which would be colder than it was in February, according to the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, which oversees Philly and most of New Jersey.

More strange weather

Atlantic City also has a shot at ending March with a colder average temperature than the casino city had in February, even though it felt like summer on Saturday. That's when Atlantic City's mercury shot up to 81 degrees, breaking a daily record for March 25.

One interesting note: During a one-hour period Saturday afternoon, the temperature in Atlantic City dropped 11 degrees, because of cool winds blowing in from the Atlantic Ocean, said weather service meteorologist Valerie Meola.

Atlantic City's weather last weekend was typical of the ups and downs that have been common in New Jersey this month.

On Friday, the high in Atlantic City was 58 degrees, which is 4 degrees above normal. Saturday's summer-like high of 81 degrees was 27 degrees above normal. Just one day later, on Monday, the mercury got no higher than 46 degrees, which is 9 degrees below normal for late March.

Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.

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