The Quad Countdown: No. 16 Georgia Tech

Location: Atlanta

Nickname: Yellow Jackets.

2008 Countdown ranking: No. 73.

What I said in last year’s preview:

Tech fans should look at this season in two parts: the first half as a building process, as growing pains are certain to occur, and the second half as a harbinger of things to come. The team will certainly improve as the season moves on, but unfortunately, it may be too late by that point for the Yellow Jackets to get into their 12th-straight bowl game. I love the Johnson hire – and believe he will do great things at Georgia Tech – but this Yellow Jackets team is not prepared to go bowling. I predict a 5-7 finish, with enough improvement down the stretch for fans to consider consistent bowl appearances and potential A.C.C. championships a reality beginning in 2009.

Postseason re-ranking: No. 19.

2008 record and recap: (9-4, 5-3). Few expected Georgia Tech to be so good, so fast: the team hit the ground running – no pun intended – and opened up with six wins in its first seven games, earning the Jackets a spot in the Top 25 it would not relinquish the rest of the way. Nine wins was the final result, giving Paul Johnson a record for victories by a first-year Tech coach and completely eliminating the poorly thought-out belief that the option can no longer be run effectively in the F.B.S. Well, perhaps not completely; the Jackets struggled at times in the transition from a pro-style offense to the option look – most notably in a bowl loss to L.S.U. – indicating that work remains to be done before this offense runs at full power. That’s the big picture view: Tech’s close, but not there yet. Just looking at last fall, however, it would be hard to find any fault in what G.T. was able to accomplish, especially given the overwhelming consensus that it would take Johnson and his staff a year to properly implement his attack, let alone find players best suited for the system. Well, that timeline has been pushed up quite a bit. Instead of entering the 2009 season with seven- or eight-win hopes, Georgia Tech has realistic aspirations of a conference championship and B.C.S. appearance.

High point: A 45-42 win over Georgia in the regular season finale. The Jackets had lost seven straight in the rivalry, and at halftime of this one, trailing 26-12, it seemed likely this losing streak was to continue. However, Tech scored 26 unanswered points in the third quarter and withstood a late charge to earn its first victory over the Bulldogs since 2000. I would love to have been in the G.T. locker room at halftime. The win was actually the third over a ranked opponent in a four-game span, joining victories over then-No. 15 Florida State (by 31-28) and then-No. 23 Miami (by 41-23). Tech completely blew the doors off of a strong Hurricane defense.

Low point: Though there was only one ugly regular season loss, a 28-7 defeat at North Carolina, I was disappointed in how poorly Tech played against L.S.U. in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Given time to prepare for the option, L.S.U. was able to combat the multiple looks with pure team speed, allowing it to limit G.T. to only three points, though the Jackets did still rack up over 300 yards of total offense.

Tidbit: A quick look back at Georgia Tech’s seven-year string of ineptitude against its successful neighbors in Athens. The Yellow Jackets lost those seven games by the average final score of 28-13, never cracking 17 points (though reaching that total three times) and twice being held to a single touchdown. Tech scored 90 total points from 2001-7; it scored half that amount in one single game under its new coach. Just as the 51-7 slaughtering in 2002 ushered in the Mark Richt era at Georgia, indicating Georgia’s future dominance in the series, perhaps the 45-42 win signals a changing of the guard – one ushered in by Paul Johnson.

Tidbit (explosive edition): One point I tried very hard to make in last fall’s preview was that despite popular opinion, the option has the potential to be as explosive as any offense in college football. Case in point: Tech had 67 plays of 20 yards or more, including 10 plays of at least 50 yards or more. Eight of those 50-yard plays went for touchdowns, the second-most in the F.B.S. The Yellow Jackets had an 88-yard touchdown run (the longest run in school history), an 85-yard run (fourth-longest) and an 88-yard pass play (the third-longest pass). Tech had 23 scoring drives that took three minutes or less and 21 that took five plays or less. These totals easily ranked the team among the most explosive in the nation. Just ask Miami about how electric – and unstoppable – the option can be when it’s on.

Former players in the N.F.L.: 26 – LB Keith Brooking (Dallas Cowboys), P Durant Brooks (Green bay Packers), S James Butler (St. Louis Rams), WR Kelly Campbell (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), RB Tashard Choice (Dallas Cowboys), FB Mike Cox (Kansas City Chiefs), C Andrew Economos (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), S Nick Ferguson (Houston Texans), TE John Paul Foschi (Cincinnati Bengals), LB Kevaron Fox (Pittsburgh Steelers), OT Andrew Gardner (Miami Dolphins), LB Gary Guyton (New England Patriots), DE Anthony Hargrove (New Orleans Saints), TE Will Heller (Detroit Lions), DE Michael Johnson (Cincinnati Bengals), WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit Lions), TE Michael Matthews (Giants), S Chris Reis (New Orleans Saints), DT Darryl Richard (New England Patriots), LB Darryl Smith (Jacksonville Jaguars), DT Vance Walker (Atlanta Falcons), LB Philip Wheeler (Indianapolis Colts), LB Gerris Wilkinson (Giants), CB Jahi Word-Daniels (San Francisco 49ers), OG Mansfield Wrotto (Seattle Seahawks).

Top five N.F.L. players from Georgia Tech: Not a terrible list, though I was expecting a bit better from the Yellow Jackets. (I was very tempted to put Calvin Johnson on the list already, which would have given Tech some current star power, but I’ll have to hold off on him for another few years.) Shaw’s in the Hall of Fame, as is Guyon – Jim Thorpe’s old backfield mate – while Baughan and Swilling were among the best at their positions during their heyday. Not a top list, however. Who can name the Countdown’s current top three?

1. OG Billy Shaw (Buffalo; 1961-69)
2. LB Maxie Baughan (Phi., L.A., Washington; 1960-74)
3. LB Pat Swilling (N.O., Detroit, Oakland; 1986-98)
4. WR Drew Hill (L.A., Houston, Atlanta; 1979-93)
5. RB Joe Guyon (Canton, Was., Cle., Oorang, K.C., Giants; 1920-27)

Team

Conference: Atlantic Coast, Coastal division.

Head coach: Paul Johnson (Western Carolina ’79), 9-4 after one season with Yellow Jackets. It’s hard to imagine his first season at Tech having gone any better: nine victories, a ranking in the Top 25 for nearly all of the last half of the season, competitiveness in the A.C.C. and, of course, a win over Georgia. He was an easy, and much deserved, pick as the conference coach of the year. What must be frightening to the rest of the A.C.C. is that Georgia Tech was this good so soon; most expected it to take at least one season for the Jackets to learn the intricacies of the option offense. Perhaps one should not have been surprised: Johnson has been extremely successful at both his previous stops, leading Georgia Southern to a 62-10 mark and two Division I-AA national championships from 1997-2001 and Navy to a 45-29 record from 2002-2007. His time at Navy was among the most successful in program history. He is one of five coaches in the academy’s history with at least five years’ experience with a winning percentage over .600, and his stretch of five consecutive seasons with at least eight wins was the first in the program’s history. Johnson also illustrated he can make a quick turnaround; he inherited a Navy team coming off a two-year stretch of 1-20 ball, and after finishing 2-10 in his initial season, went 43-19 the rest of his tenure. In 2003, Johnson led Navy to an 8-5 mark and a trip to the Houston Bowl, helping the Midshipmen become only the sixth team in N.C.A.A. history to go from a winless season to a bowl game in two years or less. While many maintained his system wouldn’t work when facing the talented athletes of the A.C.C., Johnson’s first season with the Yellow Jackets put to bed any cause for concern (except from opposing defensive coordinators).

Returning starters: 17 (9 offense, 8 defense).

Key losses: Not very much to speak of on either side of the ball. The two starters lost on offense are the starting tackles, Andrew Gardner and David Brown. Gardner, the owner of 48 consecutive starts until a late-season injury pushed him from the starting lineup, was a two-time first-team all-conference pick. He earned that honor even as a senior, when a torn labrum cost him the final four games of the season. He started every game at left tackle beginning with his true freshman season through that injury, and should be considered one of the most consistent offensive linemen G.T. has produced this decade. Brown was a one-year starter who, like Gardner, missed most of the second-half of the season due to injury. The good news heading into 2009 is that Tech returns all five players who formed the starting lineup up front over the final four games of last fall. Though he should return by the fifth game of this season, I’m very worried about the broken collarbone suffered by the sophomore quarterback Jaybo Shaw. He played a key role last fall as an injury replacement, and given Tech’s issues last fall with keeping its quarterback healthy, losing a player with experience running the option is something to keep an eye on. He’ll be back, however, and should suffer no long-term effects from the injury.

As on offense, the lost starters on defense are mostly situated on the line. Tech lost three starters, all of whom all-A.C.C. recognition as seniors; one, end Michael Johnson, was a first-team all-American. Johnson put his complete game together as a senior after flashing signs of brilliance as a sophomore and junior, most of which came in a reserve role. A full-time starter in 2008, Johnson responded with 46 tackles, which included a team-best 17.5 tackles for loss and 9 sacks. He was joined as a first-team all-conference selection by tackle Vance Walker (33 tackles, 8.5 for loss, 3 sacks), a two-year starter in the middle of the Tech defensive line. Darryl Richard, a 43-game starter, was a second-team all-A.C.C. pick after making 34 stops (10 for loss) and 4 sacks. What Richard lacked in pure athleticism he more than made up for in intelligence and technique; he added experience to that mix as a senior, and had his best season as a Jacket. Two more part-time starters must be replaced: outside linebacker Tony Clark (21 tackles, 1 sack) and cornerback Jahi Word-Daniels (24 tackles, 1 interception). Word-Daniels was stymied by a hamstring injury as a senior, one that caused him to miss six games, but was one of Tech’s best cornerbacks as a sophomore and junior.

Players to watch: The West Coast has Jahvid Best, the lightning-quick Cal back. The Midwest has Kendall Hunter, the underrated Oklahoma State burner. Us folks back East (if Southerners will take this Yankee) are only too happy to claim Jonathan Dwyer, the G.T. breakaway threat and reigning A.C.C. Player of the Year. For every misconception of skill players chafing at the notion of playing in Johnson’s offensive system there’s a player like Dwyer, who has clearly blossomed as the lead back in this run-first attack. How good was Dwyer? Well, considering he received little to no national attention through his sophomore season, I’ll tell you: he was really, really good. A threat to score nearly every time he touched the ball (I felt like he did score every time he touched the ball against Miami), Dwyer wrapped up the season with 1,395 yards and 12 touchdowns, both totals best on the team, while averaging a superb 7.0 yards per carry. He did so while playing with a revolving door of quarterbacks due to injury, making his season even more impressive. Hopefully, this season will see Dwyer firmly planted on the national stage, perhaps even as a Heisman contender. We’ll see. Lending a hand in the backfield is the sophomore Roddy Jones (the A-back to Dwyer’s B-back), who rushed for 690 yards on a team-best 8.5 yards per carry. His coming-out party came in the win over Georgia, when he rushed for 214 yards and a pair of scores while averaging more than 16 yards per carry. Another name to watch in the backfield is the former Louisville transfer Anthony Allen, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in his two seasons with the Cardinals. He can play both backfield spots, lending the offense some versatility. The quarterback will again be the junior Josh Nesbitt, who enters his second season in the starting lineup with a firmer grasp on running the option. He is a solid rushing threat (693 yards, 7 scores) but a below-average passer (43.9 percent passing, 2 touchdowns against 5 picks), though I’d expect he’ll be better in both categories as a junior. Shaw’s injury greatly increases the importance of finding a second quarterback – especially given Nesbitt’s injury history – with the redshirt freshman Tevin Washington the heavy favorite to serve as Nesbitt’s backup until Shaw’s return. The true freshmen Jordan Luallen and David Sims are other options. If Tech does go to the air, the odds are the pass is headed towards the junior receiver Demaryius Thomas, who accounted for 39 of Tech’s 74 total receptions, 627 of 1,290 receiving yards and three of its five touchdowns. He can’t do it all alone, however, so finding a capable No. 2 and beyond will be key to the health of the offense. The sophomores Tyler Melton and Zach Fisher will see major snaps at receiver, as will the redshirt freshmen Quentin Sims and Daniel McKayhan. The biggest question mark on the offense is the line, though, as stated, this unit does return all five starters from the final four games of 2008. The situation looks set at guard, as the sophomore Joseph Gilbert and the senior Cord Howard have firm grasps on their starting spots. Center will see the senior Dan Voss, a returning starter, battle the former walk-on Sean Bedford for the starting role. Keep an eye on the sophomore Nick Claytor, who will both man the blindside (if healthy) and blog about the 2009 season for The Quad (regardless of health). (His first blog item will follow this preview.)

The Tech defensive line brings back only one starter, though the junior end Derrick Morgan has the potential to put this unit on his back while breaking in three new starters. Overlooked last fall due to the play of his senior teammates, Morgan was an honorable mention all-A.C.C. choice after making 51 tackles (9.5 for loss) and 7 sacks. His 51 stops led all Tech defensive linemen, while his sack total trailed only Johnson’s nine. Morgan will have his work cut out for him, given the added attention he’s due to receive from opposing offensive lines as the lone known commodity on the G.T. defensive front; let’s see how he responds. This defense will be strong in the back seven. The secondary returns all of its contributors minus Word-Daniels, though his injury allowed young players like the sophomore Rashaad Reid to earn valuable playing time. Like the offensive line, all four starters over the second half of last season return, including the all-conference safety Morgan Burnett, an all-American candidate who led the Jackets with 93 stops (7 for loss) and 7 interceptions in 2008. His aggressive play was key in Tech’s ability to win the turnover battle (18 team interceptions), a task made more difficult by the team’s penchant for turnovers (as to be expected in the first season in the new offense). Fellow junior Dominique Reese (44 tackles, 3 interceptions) also returns at safety, while Reed will be joined at cornerback by the junior Mario Butler. The story is similar at linebacker, where Tech is deep and athletic. This unit features a hybrid linebacker-safety spot (wolf), which will be manned by either the sophomore Cooper Taylor (69 stops, second on the team) or the junior Mario Edwards. Each can run, and each can hit. The Jackets are deep enough on the inside to have the sophomore Kyle Jackson, coming off a strong rookie campaign, currently running as the backup. This is mostly due to the return of the junior Brad Jefferson from injury, and I expect Jackson to continue to see a good amount of playing time in his sophomore season. Likewise at outside linebacker: the senior Sedric Griffin (53 tackles, 3 sacks) may enter the season-opener as the starter, but the sophomore Steven Sylvester is sure to see meaningful playing time. I would be shocked if Jackson and Sylvester did not break into the starting lineup at some point during the 2009 season.

Position(s) to watch: No, Georgia Tech does not lack for returning starters and contributors. However, the players who have departed the program left some holes to fill, most notably on the defensive line. Three starters are gone, all of whom earned all-conference honors as seniors, leaving Tech searching for depth among a pool of somewhat inexperienced returning lettermen. The good news is this: Morgan has first-team all-A.C.C. talent, though it remains to be seen if he can continue his production without sharing space with three talented starters up front. He’ll likely be joined at end by the junior Robert Hall, who has played important snaps as a reserve over the last two seasons. The true freshman Emmanuel Dieke enrolled early and may break into the rotation at end, as may the junior Osahon Tongo, a former linebacker. The Yellow Jackets must not be too worried about end, as the coaching staff moved Michael Johnson’s backup a season ago, Jason Peters, inside to tackle, where he’s expected to earn a starting role. The junior Ben Anderson currently sits atop the depth chart at the second tackle spot, though keep an eye out for the massive redshirt freshman T.J. Barnes (6’7, 350 pounds), who will either grab the starting role or be the top reserve on the interior. Either way, I’d expect Barnes to earn significant snaps in his first season of action.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Jacksonville State
Sept. 10 Clemson
Sept. 17 @ Miami
Sept. 26 North Carolina
Oct. 3 @ Mississippi State
Oct. 10 @ Florida State
Oct. 17 Virginia Tech
Oct. 24 @ Virginia
Oct. 31 @ Vanderbilt
Nov. 7 Wake Forest
Nov. 14 @ Duke
Nov. 28 Georgia

Game(s) to watch: In increasing order in terms of importance: Florida State, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia Tech. Now, one can easily make the case that Georgia – the chance to take two straight in the series – is even more meaningful to the program than a potential win over Virginia Tech, which would give the Jackets a major leg-up over the Hokies in the quest for an A.C.C. division title.

Season breakdown & prediction: The team has great potential. I don’t believe the Yellow Jackets to be national championship contenders, mind you, but I’m confident that this is the second-best team in the A.C.C. behind only Virginia Tech, its Coastal division rival. Much of this confidence stems from the plethora of returning talent, which enters 2009 with the added experience of a year in Johnson’s system. Well, you might ask, won’t that experience be tempered by the conference’s increased familiarity with the offense? Hardly. The opposing team’s defense could spend an entire week attending G.T. practices, watching it run through plays, and still not be prepared for the multitude of looks Johnson and his staff can present on gameday. Good luck A.C.C.: you’re going to need it. This year’s offense will be even better than last – especially if the offensive line can gel. Dwyer is a Heisman contender, Nesbitt (if healthy) is a great fit for the system and the defense tough enough to stand tall against every offense it’s bound to face in conference action. My only concerns revolve around whether this team is ready to unseat the Hokies as the top team in the Coastal division. My gut feeling? Not yet, but it’s close. Over all, I would be surprised if Tech suffered through anything worse than a nine-win season, matching last fall’s win total, with one loss coming to Virginia Tech, one coming on the road (Miami and Florida State, most notably) and one – this is not going to make Tech fans happy – coming to Georgia.

Dream season: The Yellow Jackets improve to 11 wins in year two under Johnson, and enter the A.C.C. title game with a shot at playing for the national championship.

Nightmare season: With its increasing familiarity with the offense and its returning starters, a slide down to 6-6 would be worrisome.

Where do Georgia Tech fans congregate: For independent message boards, check out BBuzzOff.com (“A No Holds Barred Discussion of Georgia Tech Sports”) and StingTalk.com. Recruiting coverage can be found at GoJackets.com and Jackets Online. For additional information, visit From The Rumble Seat and the Web site of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Who is No. 15?: Our next program has won nine games twice since 2003 after finishing with only two winning seasons from 1989-2002.