26 April 2020
4QFY20 Results Update | Sector: Financials
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
Net Premiums
Surplus / Deficit
Sh. holder's PAT
NBP growth
Unwtd (%)
APE growth - (%)
Tot. Premium
Growth (%)
VNB margin (%)
RoE (%)
RoEV (%)
Total AUMs (INR t)
VNB (INRb)
EV per share
Valuations
P/EV (x)
P/EPS (x)
FY20 FY21E FY22E
328.8 355.6 390.8
21.9 13.5 15.4
10.7 11.4 12.3
20.5
-2.9
8.1
21.7
15.0
6.5
1.5
16.0
160
2.1
45.2
8.0
8.1
7.7
22.9
14.9
14.3
1.7
17.6
183
1.8
42.5
11.5
13.4
9.9
23.0
14.5
15.7
2.0
20.1
212
1.6
39.4
IPRU IN
1,435
483.2 / 6.8
538 / 222
15/-10/12
1147
CMP: INR337
TP: INR430 (+28%)
Buy
APE growth declines led by ULIPs; Growth outlook modest
VNB growth steady with margin improving to 21.7%
IPRU Life (IPRU) reported weak business trends due to the ongoing
lockdown and volatile markets. APE growth declined 20% YoY led by ULIPs
while protection business growth was steady. Persistency remained under
pressure with 13
th
/25
th
month persistency declining 140bp/50bp YoY,
mainly in the ULIP segment.
FY20 VNB growth remained steady at 21% YoY led by improvement in asset
mix (protection/annuity segment). VNB margins, thus, improved to 21.7%
during FY20 (470bp YoY increase).
We have cut our EPS estimates by 12%/18% for FY21/FY22E, mainly to
factor in the softer business growth.
Maintain Buy with revised PT of
INR430.
VNB margins expand led by protection business; cost ratios improve
4QFY20 PAT declined 31% YoY to INR1.8b impacted by weak business
trends due to the lockdown in Mar’20. Gross premium income moderated
~5% YoY led by 26% YoY decline in the first year premium while single
premium grew ~111% YoY.
Renewal premium declined 4% YoY as persistency in the ULIP segment
suffered. 13
th
/25
th
month persistency declined by 140bp/50bp YoY.
In 4QFY20, total APE declined ~20% YoY (5.4% decline in FY20) led by ULIPs
plunging 43% YoY. Protection APE grew 35% YoY, and thus, share of the
protection business improved to 17.8% (15.1% in FY20). Share of ULIPs
declined to 54% (~65% in FY20 v/s ~80% in FY19).
VNB margins improved to 23.8% (21.7% in FY20) due to higher share of the
protection/annuity business driving 12% YoY growth in VNB to INR4.7b.
Total operating expenses (incl. commissions) declined 8% YoY, and thus,
cost to weighted received premium declined to 14.2% (15.9% in FY20) v/s
16.5% in 3QFY20.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-20 Dec-19
Promoter
75.0
75.0
DII
5.5
5.5
FII
13.3
13.3
Others
6.1
6.2
FII Includes depository receipts
Mar-19
75.0
6.5
10.1
8.4
Highlights from management commentary
COVID-19 impact:
Market risk exists due to the decline in interest rates and
choppy equity markets. While the stress in certain sectors builds in credit
risk; however, ~94% of the fixed income portfolio is invested in Government
bonds/AAA corporate bonds. Under stress scenario, solvency ratio remains
comfortable.
The entire reinsurance price hike would be passed on to customers, and
thus, would not impact VNB margins. Further, the protection segment is
significantly underpenetrated and should continue witnessing strong
trends.
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1542 |
Himanshu Taluja
(Himanshu.Taluja@motilaloswal.com)
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com);
Yash Agarwal
(Yash.Agarwal@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal
January
research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
21
Oswal
2020
1
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
Valuation and view
ULIP demand is likely to remain muted amidst challenging macros due to the COVID-
19 pandemic, thus, putting pressure on overall premium growth. Protection/annuity
segments are though likely to see healthy growth and should help drive steady
margins (23% by FY22E). We, thus, estimate IPRU Life to deliver CAGR of ~12% in
VNB over FY20-22E led by 11% new business APE while operating RoEV should
moderate to ~16% for FY22E.
Maintain Buy with a revised target price of INR430
(2.2x Sep’21E EV).
Quarterly performance
Policy holder's A/c
(INR m)
1Q
Net premium income 54,378
Growth (%)
12.8%
Commission paid
2,795
Operating expense
5,952
Surplus/(Deficit)
3,009
Shareholder A/c
Total income
3,864
PBT
2,840
PAT
2,816
Growth (%)
-30.6%
Key metrics
VNB (INRb)
2.4
AUM (INRb)
1,427
EV (INRb)
NA
VNB Margins (%)
17.5
Solvency ratio (%)
235
E:MOFSL Estimates
FY19
2Q
76,012
16.2%
3,951
6,585
2,003
2,910
3,032
3,009
-28.6%
3.5
1,461
192
17.5
234
3Q
74,830
10.1%
3,671
5,785
3,254
4,046
2,975
2,968
-34.4%
3.2
1,500
NA
17.0
224
4Q
100,563
16.2%
5,095
7,732
4,067
6,459
2,782
2,614
-23.3%
4.2
1,604
216
17.0
215
1Q
62,081
14.2%
2,648
6,458
4,221
5,122
2,870
2,849
1.2%
3.1
1,640
NA
21.0
217
FY20
2Q
80,647
6.1%
3,945
7,542
4,768
6,015
3,063
3,019
0.3%
4.0
1,655
227
21.0
211
3Q
81,310
8.7%
4,277
7,662
3,870
5,482
3,038
3,025
1.9%
4.3
1,720
NA
21.0
207
4Q
104,751
4.2%
4,433
7,365
9,011
9,868
1,717
1,795
-31.3%
4.7
1,530
230
21.7
194
FY19
305,783
14.1%
15,513
26,053
12,362
17,279
11,630
11,406
-29.6%
13.3
1,604
216
17.0
215
FY20
328,790
7.5%
15,303
29,026
21,870
26,487
10,687
10,688
-6.3%
16.0
1,530
230
21.7
194
(INRm)
4Q
A v/s E
FY20E
106,196 -1%
5.6%
8,936
-50%
10,419 -29%
973
826%
866
2,705
2,302
1039%
-37%
-22%
Quarterly snapshot
Policyholder A/c
(INR b)
Net premium income
First year prem.
Renewal prem.
Single prem.
Investment income
Total income
Commission paid
Operating expenses
Total comm. & Opex
Benefits paid
PBT
Tax
Surplus/(Deficit)
Shareholder A/c
Transfer from policyholder a/c
Investment Income
Total income
PAT
APE data
Savings APE
ULIP
Participating
Other Savings
- Non-Participating
- Group
Protection
Total APE
1Q
48.2
16.1
25.8
4.2
35.2
83.5
2.2
4.1
6.3
39.7
4.2
0.3
4.0
3.3
1.0
4.4
4.1
16.3
14.6
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.8
17.1
FY18
2Q
3Q
65.4 68.0
17.9 19.3
43.2 45.4
4.9
3.8
28.1 65.4
93.7 133.6
3.6
3.8
4.9
5.2
8.6
9.0
40.7 46.9
3.8
3.6
0.2
0.2
3.6
3.4
2.9
1.7
4.6
4.2
18.0
14.6
3.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.7
18.7
2.7
2.2
4.9
4.5
19.3
17.0
2.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.8
20.1
4Q
86.6
20.2
61.5
5.6
-16.1
71.4
4.5
6.0
10.5
45.6
3.2
0.5
2.7
2.0
2.5
4.5
3.4
1Q
54.4
12.6
37.5
5.1
23.2
78.7
2.8
6.0
8.7
29.4
3.3
0.3
3.0
2.5
1.4
3.9
2.8
FY19
FY20
2Q 3Q
4Q
1Q 2Q
3Q
4Q
76.0 74.8 100.6 62.1 80.6 81.3 104.8
18.4 16.4 22.4 12.7 17.2 18.7
16.5
51.0 50.1 67.1 40.4 52.4 52.3
64.4
7.4 9.2 12.2 10.2 12.3 11.6
25.7
12.3 10.5 56.2 19.9 -1.3 45.6 -189.4
88.3 86.5 160.5 84.3 82.1 129.5 -76.5
4.0 3.7
5.1
2.6 3.9
4.3
4.4
6.6 5.8
7.7
6.5 7.5
7.7
7.4
10.5 9.5 12.8 9.1 11.5 11.9
11.8
35.0 33.2 44.9 36.4 41.4 53.9
62.0
2.3 3.5
4.3
4.5 5.0
4.1
9.6
0.3 0.3
0.3
0.3 0.3
0.2
0.6
2.0 3.3
4.1
4.2 4.8
3.9
9.0
1.5
1.4
2.9
3.0
2.7
1.4
4.0
3.0
4.2
2.2
6.5
2.6
22.0
18.9
2.3
0.8
0.3
0.5
2.6
24.6
3.7
1.4
5.1
2.8
12.6
10.5
1.4
0.7
0.2
0.5
2.1
14.7
4.0
2.0
6.0
3.0
16.2
12.8
2.2
1.2
0.3
0.9
2.8
19.0
3.6
1.9
5.5
3.0
17.7
13.8
2.5
1.4
0.2
1.2
2.7
20.4
8.6
1.3
9.9
1.8
16.2
10.7
2.5
3.0
3.1
-0.1
3.5
19.7
Change (%)
YoY
QoQ
4
29
-26
-12
-4
23
111
121
-437 -515
-148 -159
-13
4
-5
-4
-8
-1
38
15
122
136
127
195
122
133
107
-43
53
-31
137
-32
80
-41
20.0 12.8 18.3 17.7
17.6 11.1 16.6 15.5
2.0 1.4 1.4 1.7
0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5
0.2
0.1 0.1 0.2
0.2
0.2 0.2 0.3
2.2 1.1 1.5 2.0
22.1 14.0 19.8 19.6
-26
-8
-43
-23
9
0
271
120
1,021 1,265
-119 -109
35
32
-20
-3
26 April 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
Quarterly snapshot contd.
Ratios (%)
APE (% of total)
Savings APE (%)
ULIP
Participating
Other Savings
Protection
Distribution mix (%)
Banca
Agency
Direct
Corporate Agents
Group
Key Ratios (%)
Operating ratios
Comm. (unwtd)
Opex (unwtd)
Total Cost (unwtd)
Solvency Ratio
VNB margins
Persistency ratios
13th Month
25th Month
37th Month
49th Month
61st Month
Key Metrics (INRb)
VNB
EV
AUM
FY18
1Q
95.5
85.7
8.3
1.5
4.5
48.6
30.5
14.2
5.2
1.5
2Q
96.1
78.3
15.8
2.0
3.9
53.7
24.0
14.5
5.8
2.0
3Q
96.0
84.8
10.2
0.9
4.0
53.6
25.0
14.7
5.6
1.0
4Q
90.2
79.4
9.2
1.7
9.8
52.8
23.0
11.1
7.3
5.8
1Q
91.8
79.8
9.7
2.3
8.2
55.6
21.8
11.7
6.5
4.4
2Q
92.3
83.8
6.8
1.7
7.7
56.7
22.3
11.9
5.1
4.1
FY19
3Q
90.1
78.9
8.8
2.4
9.9
57.0
20.5
11.2
5.6
5.7
4Q
89.4
76.7
9.3
3.3
10.6
54.3
22.0
12.8
6.4
4.5
1Q
85.4
71.2
9.7
4.6
14.6
52.4
21.2
12.8
6.8
6.8
2Q
85.1
67.2
11.5
6.4
14.9
53.2
19.8
13.0
7.3
6.7
FY20
3Q
86.9
67.8
12.3
6.8
13.1
53.6
21.9
11.7
7.2
5.6
4Q
82.2
54.1
12.7
15.4
17.8
44.3
21.7
13.0
8.2
12.8
Change (bps)
YoY
QoQ
-721
-472
-2,262 -1,374
334
39
1,206 863
721
472
-993
-34
24
173
830
-928
-24
130
100
723
4.8
9.4
14.2
288.6
10.7
85.8
73.9
67.0
59.2
54.3
1.8
NA
1266
5.4
8.7
14.1
275.7
11.7
85.7
73.6
66.3
59.8
54.4
2.4
172
1306
5.6
8.5
14.0
251.5
13.7
86.7
75.8
67.8
61.8
55.0
3.5
NA
1383
5.5
8.2
13.7
252.0
16.5
85.8
77.0
67.6
62.8
53.7
5.2
188
1395
5.5
12.0
17.5
234.6
17.5
85.8
77.8
68.2
63.7
54.0
2.4
NA
1427
5.6
10.5
16.1
234.3
17.5
85.2
77.8
68.3
63.7
54.8
3.5
192
1461
5.5
9.9
15.4
224.3
17.0
84.1
76.7
68.7
63.2
55.6
3.2
NA
1500
5.8
9.3
15.0
214.9
17.0
84.6
75.6
69.3
63.8
56.8
4.2
216
1604
4.9
12.1
17.0
216.7
21.0
84.4
75.7
69.8
64.2
57.3
3.1
NA
1640
5.3
11.3
16.6
210.6
21.0
83.6
75.0
69.1
63.7
57.2
4.0
227
1655
5.5
11.1
16.6
207.2
21.0
83.1
74.4
68.3
64.3
56.3
4.3
NA
1720
5.7
-10
20
10.3
100
-80
15.9
90
-70
194.1 -2,080 -1,310
21.7
470
70
83.2
75.1
66.7
64.6
56.0
4.7
230
1530
-140
-50
-260
80
-80
12
-100
-5
10
70
-160
30
-30
10
NM
-11
Note: (a) Persistency ratios are excluding single premium, (b) All ratios are on cumulative basis for 1H, 9M and 12M
Highlights from management commentary
COVID-19 impact
Market risk exists due to the decline in interest rates and choppy equity markets
while the stress in certain sectors builds in the credit risk.
Interest rate change would impact liabilities. IPRU does not take any risk, which
it cannot manage.
Credit risk:
~94% of the fixed income portfolio is invested in Government/AAA
corporate bonds while only 1% is invested in low-rated bonds.
Product mix:
ULIPs constitute 68%, PAR forms 13%. Non-PAR guaranteed return
products constitute only 0.4%, and therefore, are able to withstand market risk
from the liability perspective.
Solvency ratio at 194% is well above the regulatory requirement (150%). Under
stress scenario, solvency would remain above regulatory requirement.
723 deaths until now due to COVID-19; only two claims have been raised so far.
On implications of the budget:
(i) The proposal to create an alternative tax
regime would not have major business impact as IPRU has an affluent customer
base, and (b) Removal of DDT would impact VNB and EV due to the change in
the effective tax rate.
Increase in reinsurance price:
IPRU would be able to maintain VNB margins as
the entire reinsurance price hike would be passed on to customers
The board has amended dividend distribution policy. To conserve capital, the
board has decided not to distribute any final dividend during the year.
Operating metrics
26 April 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
IPRU is continuing with its guidance of doubling VNB over 3-4 years.
~74% of the VNB during FY20 has come from the protection and non-PAR linked
products.
Drivers of VNB growth:
Share of non-linked, protection/annuity segment rising
Persistency trends stable
Productivity: focus on improving distribution and bringing cost down.
VNB growth over 1QFY21 would be challenging due to the COVID impact.
Focus is on improving cost ratios for the savings business (tightening man
power) by making costs more variable.
Increase in the effective tax rate has led to 1.1% reduction in VNB margins to
21.7% in FY20.
Doubling in absolute VNB would be led by product mix change and cost ratio
improvement. There are many levers to deliver strong VNB growth.
Margins in ULIP product is between 7-8%.
Economic assumption change
is entirely led by equity markets decline.
Reinsurance has asked all insurance companies to increase prices as they are
witnessing some adverse trend. The entire reinsurance hike would be passed on
to customers to protect VNB margins. Further, the protection segment is
significantly underpenetrated; the company does not expect any significant
change in demand.
IPRU has created additional reserves to tide over the COVID-19 impact.
On the economic variance change, the biggest contributors will be equity over
debt, which has impacted Embedded value (EV)
Operating assumption changes are based on operating expenses, which is
related to inflation adjustments; the change is largely toward effective tax rate.
Protection and annuity business from the banca channel
has improved to 10%.
Within the protection business, share of retail has improved to ~70%. Credit life
segment has reported growth of 50% YoY.
Share of Credit Life through third-party distributors has improved to 16%.
Persistency in ULIPs has declined.
More focus segments would be protection, annuity, PAR while weak market
trends should moderate ULIP demand.
Protection policy with a large sum assurance is difficult to underwrite during the
lockdown scenario.
Demand for annuity business should improve as people continue to invest
toward retirement corpus. Also, the annuity business is less sensitive to interest
rate change.
On the participating product, 25% of the portfolio is in equity while the rest is in
debt instruments.
The company is focused on widening agency channel and building new
partnerships with e-commerce players.
ICICIBC remains its key distributor with 46% of the total APE. The bank is
currently focusing more on cross-selling protection and annuity products rather
than traditional products.
No plans to raise Tier-II bonds as on now.
Business mix
Others
26 April 2020
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
Key Exhibits
Exhibit 1: Protection mix improves to ~18% of total APE v/s
11% in 4QFY19
ULIP
4%
10%
PAR
6%
11%
Non-PAR
9%
9%
Group
11%
9%
Protection
18%
16%
13%
54%
Exhibit 2: Margins expanded 470bp YoY to 21.7% on back of
improved protection mix (15.1% v/s 9.3% in FY19)
VNB Margin
Protection (%)
84%
82%
80%
77%
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 3: Total expense ratio stood at 14.2% (-240bp QoQ)
commission ratio (cal on wrp)
Opex ratio (cal on wrp)
Exhibit 4: Staff cost stable YoY to INR2.3b (-16% QoQ)
Staff cost (INRm)
26%
20% 19%
16%
17%
7%
-1%
5%
0%
Growth (YoY, RHS)
23%
-9% -10%
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 5: EV break-up during FY20
216.2
-2.25
16.1
0.9
0.4
0.01
0.6
-14.8
-4.1
230.3
17.3
Source: MOSL, Company
Valuation view
We believe the Indian life insurance sector is in a sweet spot, where strong
structural potential is now overlapping with the rising share of financial savings
and higher disposable income. We, thus, expect Indian insurers to trade at a
premium to global insurers.
26 April 2020
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
Private sector life insurance companies have 42% market share in total new
business APE, and IPRU is amongst the leading players. IPRU should gain market
share in the protection business as this segment is significantly
underpenetrated.
Due to COVID-19 outbreak, we expect overall business trends to remain weak,
especially in the ULIP segment. Thus, new business APE growth should
moderate, delivering 11% CAGR over FY20-22E.
Shift toward balanced product segments to reduce volatility:
IPRU Life has
taken a strategic call to move toward balanced product categories with strong
focus on protection, annuity and PAR segment, which should drive incremental
profitability.
Buy with a target price of INR430:
ULIP demand is likely to remain muted
amidst challenging macros due to the COVID-19 pandemic, thus, putting
pressure on overall premium growth. Protection/annuity segments though are
likely to witness healthy growth and should help drive steady margins (23% by
FY22E). We, thus, estimate CAGR of ~12% in VNB over FY20-22E led by 11% in
new business APE while operating RoEV should moderate to ~16% for FY22E.
Maintain
Buy
with a revised target price of INR430 (2.2x Sep’21E EV).
Old Est.
Revised Est.
FY21E
FY22E
355.6
390.8
110.0
153.8
467.6
546.8
20.6
22.7
33.9
36.8
13.5
15.4
17.4
5.6
11.8
11.4
17.6
263.0
22.9
14.7
14.3
18.7
6.0
12.8
12.3
20.1
304.5
23.0
16.1
15.7
Estimates Chg.
FY21E
FY22E
-0.1
-1.4
-47.5
-37.8
-17.6
-15.3
-1.4
-2.7
-0.9
-2.2
-3.1
-0.3
-9.4
0.8
-13.6
-11.8
6.0
-9.6
8.2
-17.7
-10.1
-13.2
4.4
-19.6
-18.3
3.4
-9.5
8.6
-7.7
0.4
Exhibit 6: We cut our FY21/FY22E estimates by 12%/18% as we factor in lower investment income
Technical Account (INR b)
Net Premiums
Investment income
Total income
Commission
Operating expenses
Surplus / Deficit
Shareholder's Account
Total Income
Total Expenses
PBT
PAT
Key Metrics
VNB (INR b)
EV (INR b)
Key Ratios
VNB margin (%)
Op. ROEV (%)
RoEV (%)
FY21E
356.0
209.5
567.5
20.9
34.2
13.9
19.2
5.6
13.6
12.9
16.6
290.9
21.2
17.9
15.9
FY22E
396.1
247.3
645.7
23.3
37.6
15.5
21.6
5.7
15.9
15.0
19.4
336.5
21.2
17.4
15.7
Exhibit 7: One-year forward P/EV
P/EV
Min (x)
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
Avg (x)
+1SD
3.5
3.0 2.6
2.2
Max (x)
-1SD
Exhibit 8: One-year forward P/E
73
61
49
37
46.2
36.1
26.5
25
42.7
P/E (x)
Min (x)
Avg (x)
+1SD
66.6
56.3
Max (x)
-1SD
1.8
1.8
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
26 April 2020
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
Story in Charts
Exhibit 9: First year premium declined 26% YoY
First Yr Premium
70%
45%
20%
-5%
-30%
Ren. Premium
Tot. Premium
9%
Exhibit 10: Share of single premium increased to 25%
First Year Premium
8%
6%
6%
9%
Renewal Premium
Single Premium
10% 12% 12% 16% 15% 14%
25%
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 11: Share of bank partners declining
Banca
7%
10%
24%
6%
12%
23%
Agency
6%
14%
25%
Direct
5%
6%
12%
22%
7%
7%
13%
21%
corp agents
7%
7%
13%
20%
6%
7%
12%
22%
Group
13%
8%
13%
22%
54%
Exhibit 12: Share of ULIP in total APE declined to 54%
Total APE (INRb)
ULIP (as a % of total APE)
85% 79% 80% 84%
79% 77%
71% 67% 68%
54%
57%
57%
52%
56%
52%
53%
44%
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 13: 61 month persistency declined 80bp YoY to
th
56%, 13 month continues to moderate
13th Month
25th Month
61st Month
st
Exhibit 14: Solvency ratio stood at 194%, above the
regulatory requirement of 150%
Solvency ratio
Regulatory requirement (RHS)
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
26 April 2020
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
Financials and Valuations
Technical account (INR b)
Gross Premiums
Reinsurance Ceded
Net Premiums
Income from Investments
Other Income
Total income (A)
Commission
Operating expenses
Total commission and Opex
Benefits Paid (Net)
Change in reserves
Provisions for doubtful debts
Total expenses (B)
(A) - (B)
Prov. for Tax
Surplus / Deficit
Shareholder's a/c (INR b)
Transfer from technical a/c
Income From Investments
Total Income
Other expenses
Contribution to technical a/c
Total Expenses
PBT
Prov. for Tax
PAT
Growth
Premium (INR b) & growth (%)
NBP - unweighted
NBP – wrp
Renewal premium
Total premium - unweighted
NBP growth - unweighted
NBP growth – wrp
Renewal premium growth
Tot. premium growth - unweighted
Premium mix (%)
New business - unwtd
- Individual mix
- Group mix
New business mix - APE
- Participating
- Non-participating
- ULIPs
Total premium mix - unwtd
- Participating
- Non-participating
- ULIPs
Indi. Premium sourcing mix (%)
Individual agents
Corporate agents-Banks
Direct business
Others
FY17
223.5
(2.0)
221.6
149.8
0.2
371.9
7.6
23.6
31.2
150.0
175.0
4.3
360.4
11.5
0.8
10.7
FY17
11.3
6.7
18.3
0.4
0.0
0.4
17.8
1.0
16.8
2%
FY17
78.6
65.0
144.9
223.5
16.2%
27.2%
16.9%
16.6%
FY17
88.7%
11.3%
9.5%
4.8%
85.7%
11.7%
13.6%
74.8%
FY17
23.5%
57.1%
12.8%
6.6%
FY18
270.7
(2.6)
268.1
112.6
0.9
382.2
14.0
20.3
34.3
172.8
154.5
5.7
367.3
14.8
1.2
13.6
FY18
10.9
7.4
18.4
0.4
0.8
1.2
17.2
1.0
16.2
-4%
FY18
92.1
75.4
178.6
270.7
17.1%
16.1%
23.2%
21.1%
FY18
91.2%
8.8%
10.6%
5.0%
84.4%
12.0%
12.8%
75.2%
FY18
25.6%
52.6%
16.0%
5.8%
FY19
309.3
(3.5)
305.8
102.1
5.6
414.0
15.5
26.1
41.6
142.6
210.0
6.4
400.5
13.5
1.1
12.4
FY19
10.8
6.4
17.3
0.4
5.3
5.6
11.6
0.2
11.4
-30%
FY19
103.6
73.2
205.7
309.3
12.5%
-3.0%
15.2%
14.3%
FY19
78.5%
21.5%
9.0%
9.0%
82.0%
11.4%
15.2%
73.4%
FY19
21.8%
55.2%
16.7%
6.3%
FY20
334.3
(5.5)
328.8
(125.2)
15.8
219.4
15.3
29.0
44.3
193.8
(50.6)
8.7
196.2
23.2
1.3
21.9
FY20
19.9
6.6
26.5
0.4
15.0
15.8
10.7
(0.0)
10.7
-6%
FY20
124.9
71.1
209.4
334.3
20.5%
-2.9%
1.8%
8.1%
FY20
68.0%
32.0%
10.8%
27.7%
61.5%
10.9%
28.4%
60.7%
FY20
22.8%
55.0%
17.7%
4.6%
FY21E
360.0
(4.4)
355.6
110.0
2.0
467.6
20.6
33.9
54.4
151.0
242.7
4.4
452.5
15.1
1.6
13.5
FY21E
11.0
6.4
17.4
0.4
5.2
5.6
11.8
0.4
11.4
6%
FY21E
134.9
76.8
225.1
360.0
8.0%
8.1%
7.5%
7.7%
FY21E
70.0%
30.0%
10.9%
29.1%
60.0%
10.8%
28.4%
60.8%
FY21E
23.8%
54.8%
17.5%
4.0%
FY22E
395.6
(4.9)
390.8
153.8
2.2
546.8
22.7
36.8
59.5
165.2
300.1
4.8
529.5
17.3
1.9
15.4
FY22E
11.8
7.0
18.7
0.4
5.6
6.0
12.8
0.5
12.3
8%
FY22E
150
87
245
396
11.5%
13.4%
9.0%
9.9%
FY22E
75.0%
25.0%
10.9%
30.4%
58.8%
10.8%
28.9%
60.3%
FY22E
24.8%
54.6%
17.3%
3.4%
26 April 2020
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
Financials and Valuations
Balance sheet (INR b)
Sources of Fund
Share Capital
Reserves And Surplus
Shareholders' Fund
Policy Liabilities
Prov. for Linked Liability
Funds For Future App.
Current liabilities & prov.
Total
Application of Funds
Shareholders’ inv.
Policyholders’ inv.
Assets to cover linked liability
Fixed Assets
Current assets
Total
Operating ratios (%)
Investment yield (%)
Commissions / GWP
- first year premiums
- renewal premiums
- single premiums
Operating expenses / GWP
Total expense ratio
Claims / NWP
Solvency margin
Persistency ratios (%)
13th Month
25th Month
37th Month
49th Month
61st Month
Profitability ratios
VNB margin (%)
RoE (%)
RoIC (%)
Operating ROEV (%)
RoEV (%)
Valuation ratios
Total AUMs (INRb)
- Of which equity AUMs (%)
Dividend (%)
Dividend payout ratio (%)
EPS (INR)
VNB (INRb)
EV (INRb)
EV/Per share
VIF as % of EV
P/VIF
P/AUM (%)
P/EV (x)
P/EPS (x)
FY17
14.4
47.0
64.1
251.7
839.4
6.0
28.4
1,247.4
66.3
270.7
878.8
2.1
28.7
1,247.4
FY17
13.0%
3.4%
7.3%
2.0%
0.6%
10.5%
13.9%
67.7%
289%
FY17
85.7%
73.9%
66.8%
59.3%
56.2%
FY17
10.1%
28.7%
34.8%
16.4%
16.0%
FY17
1,229.2
47%
74%
40%
11.7
6.6
161.7
112.7
58%
5.1
39%
3.0
28.7
FY18
14.4
51.4
68.8
309.9
923.1
8.8
34.5
1,418.2
77.5
332.9
975.0
4.2
27.1
1,418.2
FY18
8.1%
5.2%
13.9%
1.9%
1.9%
7.5%
12.7%
64.5%
252%
FY18
86.8%
78.3%
68.8%
64.2%
54.5%
FY18
16.5%
24.4%
33.4%
22.8%
16.1%
FY18
1,395.3
48%
68%
74%
11.3
12.9
187.8
130.8
63%
4.1
35%
2.6
29.8
FY19
14.4
54.4
70.4
385.5
1,037.0
10.3
36.6
1,630.9
79.9
400.7
1,109.5
4.8
33.4
1,630.9
FY19
6.4%
5.0%
16.0%
1.9%
1.4%
8.4%
13.4%
46.6%
215%
FY19
86.2%
77.4%
71.0%
65.0%
58.1%
FY19
17.0%
16.4%
23.5%
20.2%
15.1%
FY19
1,604.1
48%
49%
74%
8.0
13.3
216.1
150.6
66%
3.4
30%
2.2
42.3
FY20
14.4
61.1
72.2
473.6
880.4
12.3
33.3
1,560.4
74.2
467.5
970.8
4.8
38.4
1,560.4
FY20
-8.3%
4.6%
16.5%
1.8%
1.1%
8.7%
13.3%
58.9%
194%
FY20
85.3%
77.4%
69.0%
66.4%
57.4%
FY20
21.7%
15.0%
22.0%
15.2%
6.5%
FY20
1,529.7
40%
12%
19%
7.4
16.0
230.2
160.4
66%
3.2
32%
2.1
45.2
FY21E
14.4
69.4
80.2
779.0
1,058.2
14.2
40.0
1,969.6
79.4
780.4
1,058.2
5.4
40.9
1,969.6
FY21E
6.0%
5.7%
22.5%
1.8%
1.1%
9.4%
15.1%
42.5%
174%
FY21E
84.8%
76.7%
69.0%
65.0%
58.5%
FY21E
22.9%
14.9%
23.4%
14.7%
14.3%
FY21E
1,726.2
42%
18%
27%
7.9
17.6
263.0
183.3
67%
2.7
28%
1.8
42.5
FY22E
14
78
89
995
1,153
16
48
2,299
85.0
1,005
1,153
6
44
2,299
FY22E
7.1%
5.7%
21.8%
1.8%
1.1%
9.3%
15.0%
42.3%
155%
FY22E
84.4%
76.2%
68.6%
65.0%
57.4%
FY22E
23.0%
14.5%
25.3%
16.1%
15.7%
FY22E
2,019
44%
20%
28%
8.5
20.1
304.5
212.1
70%
2.3
24%
1.6
39.4
26 April 2020
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
NOTES
26 April 2020
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within
following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the
Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial
products. MOFSL is a subsidiary company of Passionate Investment Management Pvt. Ltd.. (PIMPL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are
available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a
registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and
National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National
Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance
Regulatory & Development Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance products.
Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are
available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf
MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and
buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other
compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have
any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even
though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report
MOFSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report
should be aware that MOFSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific
merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the
website at
https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental
research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated
from MOFSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability
or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong
Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst
Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of
research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity
to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these
securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not
located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under
applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers
Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any
brokerage and investment services provided by MOFSL , including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is
intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as
"major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which
this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration
provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-
dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this
chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S.
registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets
services license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore.As per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and
Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL
in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”,
of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“the
SFA”). Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and
inform MOCMSPL.
Specific Disclosures
1 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.
2 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
3 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
4 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report
5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company
6 MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
7 MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
8 MOFSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
26 April 2020
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance
***************************************************************************************
*****************************************
The associates of MOFSL may have:
- financial interest in the subject company
- actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
- received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
- other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even
though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
- acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
- be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the
company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
- received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from
clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;
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Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth
Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is
a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.
Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.
Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no
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* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
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