Success of Corbett liquor privatization plan will depend on fault lines in party lines

Early reaction to Gov. Tom Corbett's liquor privatization plan fell neatly on party lines at the Capitol today, with Democrats decrying the potential loss of good state store jobs and a stable revenue stream, and Republicans touting improved potential consumer choice and convenience.

The Pennsylvania state Capitol near the Susquehanna River in Harrisburg, Pa.

The key to this debate moving forward is exactly how those party lines bend.

Organized labor has already begun portraying the issue as the latest battle in the war on workers, and the question for them will be two-fold:

Can they hold Democrats in the House and Senate in the face of a proposal that may be very popular with many consumers; and can they attract enough Republican members who have high levels of union membership in their districts to their side?

Supporters of the concept, meanwhile, must make sure that they can limit defections from three groups of Republicans lawmakers who could be critical in guaranteeing majority support:

* Rural lawmakers, including heavyweights like Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati and House Speaker Sam Smith, both Republicans from Jefferson County, who are concerned that a private sector world will leave their residents with less liquor options than they have now.

* Social conservatives who typically want to support free enterprise but in this case may have concerns about creating too much access to alcohol as more, profit-driven private retailers replace rule-oriented state stores.

* Labor-sensitive Republicans from places like Bucks and Delaware County, where union membership still counts for a significant share of voters.

For today, only those who really know where they are - Democrats rallying with labor or who have no interest in giving Corbett a major policy victory; or Republicans who have always championed liquor privatization - spoke out the loudest.

"This plan will help transition us to what every state around us has: the ability to buy wine and spirits and beer in more convenient locations," said House Majority Leader Mike Turzai, a Republican from the Pittsburgh suburbs.

Turzai and other Republicans supporters believe - with Corbett fully-engaged - this may be the best chance for a breakthrough on this thorny issue in this political generation.

But Sen. Jim Ferlo, the ranking Democrat on the Senate committee that oversees liquor laws in Pennsylvania, spoke up for the state-owned liquor stores and showed that the status quo has a lot of fight left.

"We do not need to tear down a system that works, provides good paying, middle class jobs and generates essential revenue for the state," Ferlo, from Pittsburgh, said.

"We need to improve that system to the benefit of consumers while continuing to take advantage of the important resources and public health protections it provides today."

How this all ends, it's way too early to know.

But it will almost certainly come down to those who did not have much to say today.

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