"98B" - Moving N-W and Intensifying.

"98B" - Moving N-W and Intensifying. Now almost a Depression.
Latest satellite shot reveals that the system is Intensifying.
Bad news is "NO rain for most of Tamilnadu till 20-Nov. Some showers may open up over S.Tamilnadu during next 2 days."

JTWC report at 6am IST

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 
90.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 90.1E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 162204Z SSMI 
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDERNEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
AXIS WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY 
THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO 
THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Both NOGAPS & COLA models suggests a Westerly movement from here towards central,N-E Andhra coast during next 2 days.

The system may not intensify beyond Depression.