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Trump and Kim Jong Un expected to meet. But we still don't know where

Jim Michaels
USA TODAY
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un  waves from his train as it prepares to depart from Beijing railway station.

The White House said plans for a historic meeting between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are proceeding, despite recent developments that cast doubt on the likelihood of its occurrence.

Last week Trump replaced his national security adviser, Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, with John Bolton, a firebrand conservative who has said the U.S. could be justified in launching a pre-emptive strike on North Korea. This week Kim surfaced in China for a meeting with President Xi Jinping, the North Korean leader’s closest ally. The meeting took Washington by surprise and raised questions about what impact it might have on Trump’s meeting.

The White House has downplayed the concerns. “We're going to be cautiously optimistic, but we feel things are moving in the right direction,” White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said.

Here are some hurdles that need to be cleared on the way to a summit.

Kim Jong Un meets with South Korean president

North and South Korean officials agreed on April 27 as the date for a meeting between Kim and Moon Jae-in, South Korea’s president.

Moon’s meeting with Kim will set the stage for the later Trump summit. Moon has been the driving force behind reconciliation efforts between the rival Koreas, which led to Trump’s agreement to meet with Kim.

Moon will be careful to avoid anything that could threaten the Trump-Kim meeting, but there are risks. Moon could agree to conditions that the United States couldn’t accept, such as demanding the U.S. drop security guarantees for South Korea or removing American forces from the country. 

“I think it could be a wild card in this,” David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, said of the North-South Korea summit.  “It could be very unhelpful.”

North Korea may also demand that South Korea pay the North money or provide financial incentives, which could violate international sanctions against the North.  “We don’t actually know the preconditions for the meeting,” said Dean Cheng, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington D.C. “Did they demand payoffs?” 

Trump may have anticipated some of these diplomatic dangers when he announced Thursday that he might delay negotiations over a trade deal with South Korea until after he reaches a nuclear agreement with North Korea.

That could give the U.S. leverage over South Korea to ensure its positions were in alignment with Washington's. Trump didn't elaborate but said the trade deal with South Korea is "a very strong card and I want to make sure everyone is treated fairly."

This combo of file photos shows a picture taken on May 10, 2016 of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the balcony of the Grand People's Study House following a mass parade in Kim Il-Sung Square in Pyongyang; and a picture taken on August 17, 2017 of South Korea's President Moon Jae-In speaking during a press conference marking his first 100 days in office in Seoul.

U.S. and North Korea set a date and place

It’s a fundamental question and one that is fraught with uncertainty. Kim’s meeting this week with China’s Xi triggered speculation that the meeting could be held in Beijing. But that could give China too much control.

It is also unlikely Trump would travel to Pyongyang because of the message that would send in the region. “In East Asian culture the weak leader goes to visit the strong leader in his country,” said Bruce Bennett, an analyst at RAND Corp.

The demilitarized zone is a possibility because it is “neutral territory,” Cheng said. Bennett said it is possible Kim would agree to come to the Hawaii or California, but a likelier venue would be in a neutral country, such as Switzerland, where Kim attended school. It is not clear whether Kim would be willing to fly to Europe since he has rarely left the North. He traveled to China this week by train.

“The problem is what venues are acceptable to Kim,” Cheng said.

Acceptance of military exercises

The joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises, which were postponed during the Winter Olympics in South Korea, are scheduled to begin Sunday. North Korea has agreed to accept the military exercises, even though they have historically angered North Korea, which has called them a prelude to a U.S.-led invasion.

North Korea's propaganda machine usually goes into overdrive in criticizing the joint exercises and it may be hard for Kim's regime to refrain from public criticism, though it is not clear what public comments the Trump administration would view as a red line. 

Refrain from missile and bomb tests

North Korea has agreed to suspend missile and bomb tests prior to the summit, according to the White House. The last North Korean missile test was in November, which capped a year in which Kim authorized a record number of them and unveiled missiles capable of reaching U.S. cities.

It is unlikely North Korea would unilaterally test a missile during the weeks leading up to a possible summit, but the regime is difficult to predict. The assurances from North Korea were relayed by the South, which has been anxious to deescalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula. 

North Korea has said little about the summit or the conditions leading to it. “North Koreans could always say, ‘We never said that,’” Cheng said.

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