24 June 2020
4QFY20 Results Update | Sector: Financials
Bank of Baroda
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
BOB IN
4,627
238.4 / 3.1
133 / 36
24/-32/-45
2404
CMP: INR52
TP: INR65 (+25%)
Buy
Higher moratorium book to keep asset quality under pressure
Growth outlook modest; Credit cost to stay elevated
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request your ballot.
BOB reported mixed 4QFY20 operating performance as moderation in NII
was supported by lower opex and higher treasury income. While elevated
provisions led to PBT loss, higher tax reversal resulted in the bank reporting
profits. Lower slippages were aided by asset classification benefit resulting
in an improvement in asset quality ratios. However, higher moratorium
book of 55% (as at end-May’20) should keep asset quality under pressure.
We cut our EPS estimate for FY21/FY22E by 34%/5%, as we increase our
credit cost projection and fine-tune our margin/growth estimates.
Maintain
Buy.
BOB reported PBT loss of INR17.2b, impacted by higher provisions of
INR68.4b while tax reversal of INR22.3b resulted in net profit of INR5b.
NII increased 5% YoY to INR68b (in-line). Global NIMs declined by 13bp
QoQ to 2.67% while domestic NIMs dipped 10bp QoQ. Total net revenue
grew 3% YoY.
For FY20,
NII/PPoP/PAT stood at INR275b/INR197b/INR5.5b.
Opex declined 23% YoY (-8% QoQ), which resulted in C/I ratio decreasing
~90bp QoQ to 46.8%. PPoP, thus, grew 48% YoY to INR51.2b.
Loans grew 5.9% YoY (+5.4% QoQ) to INR6.9t, within which, retail loans
grew 15%. Within retail, home/auto loans grew 11%/40% YoY. Deposits
grew 3.4% YoY (5.6% QoQ) to INR9.5t. Domestic CASA grew 6.8% YoY
resulting in 23bp QoQ increase in CASA ratio to 39.1%.
Fresh slippages declined to INR30.5b (2.6% annualized) aided by asset
classification benefit availed on overdue accounts of INR40.5b. ~90% of
slippages came in from the watch-list. In ratio terms, the GNPL/NNPL ratios
declined by 103bp/92bp QoQ to 9.4%/~3.1%. PCR, thus, improved by
~510bp QoQ to 68.9% (PCR incl. TWO stood at 81.3%).
Outstanding watch list increased to INR125b (1.8% of loans), SMA-1 stood
at 1.2% (-34bp QoQ) while SMA-2 also declined to ~1.2% (-86bp QoQ).
~65% of the book availed moratorium as at end-Apr’20, which declined to
~55% as at end-May’20. The bank expects it to decline further to ~35%
levels over the next few months.
BOB expects retail loan growth to slow down in the near term. Loan mix
target – corporates would comprise 50% while the rest would be balanced
between Agri, retail and MSMEs.
Guidance:
The bank has guided for 100bp improvement on the C/I ratio
over FY21E while margins are likely to remain flattish or slightly lower.
Higher tax reversal results in profits; PCR improves further
FY22E
309.8
227.7
45.5
2.6
9.8
128.2
160.8
114.2
6.1
0.4
5.2
0.3
0.5
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
FY20 FY21E
Y/E March
274.5 284.5
NII
196.9 207.8
OP
5.5
19.9
NP
3.0
2.6
NIM (%)
1.5
4.3
EPS (INR)
-8.2 187.1
EPS Gr. (%)
149.9 152.9
BV/Sh. (INR)
112.7 103.6
ABV/Sh. (INR)
Ratios
0.9
2.7
RoE (%)
0.1
0.2
RoA (%)
Valuations
P/E(X)
P/BV (X)
P/ABV (X)
34.4
0.3
0.5
12.0
0.3
0.5
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-20 Dec-19
Promoter
71.6
71.6
DII
14.0
13.9
FII
4.6
4.8
Others
9.9
9.7
FII Includes depository receipts
Highlights from management commentary
Mar-19
63.3
18.2
9.8
8.8
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1542 |
Himanshu Taluja
(Himanshu.Taluja@motilaloswal.com)
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com);
Yash Agarwal
(Yash.Agarwal@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
Valuation and view
The macro environment remains challenging due to the COVID-19 outbreak,
which has impacted growth and credit quality outlook. Though BOB has
reported an improvement in asset quality ratios and provisioning coverage, it
has come on account of asset classification benefits availed by the bank. Watch-
list at 1.8% of loans, higher SMA-1/2 book of 1.2% each along with the
Unrated/BB & Below book of 24% remains a concern. Higher moratorium book
of 55% is likely to keep asset quality under pressure, and thus, we estimate
credit cost to remain elevated over FY21. We, thus, cut EPS estimate for
FY21/FY22E by 34%/5%. However, we maintain
Buy
with target price of INR65
(0.6x FY22E ABV) as current valuations appear reasonable.
(INRm)
Quarterly performance
1Q
4Q
1Q
4Q
Net Interest Income 43,811
50,670 64,981
67,982
% Change (YoY)
28.7
26.6
48.3
34.2
Other Income
11,478
19,704 19,156
28,347
Total Income
55,289
70,374 84,137
96,328
Operating Expenses
25,233
31,766 41,375
45,120
Operating Profit
30,056
38,608 42,762
51,208
% Change (YoY)
13.5
44.8
42.3
32.6
Provisions
21,656
53,993 32,849
68,441
Profit before Tax
8,400
-15,385
9,913
-17,233
Tax
3,120
-5,471
2,815
-22,299
Net Profit
5,280
-9,914
7,099
5,066
% Change (YoY)
159.6
-68.0
34.5
-151.1
Operating Parameters
Deposit (INR b)
5,815
6,070
6,106
6,387
8,955
8,941
8,962
9,460
Loan (INR b)
4,145
4,335
4,487
4,688
6,332
6,373
6,545
6,901
Deposit Growth (%)
1.9
4.1
6.5
8.0
54.0
47.3
46.8
48.1
Loan Growth (%)
9.8
11.9
12.3
9.7
52.8
47.0
45.9
47.2
Asset Quality
Gross NPA (INR B)
559
551
532
482
697
700
731
694
Gross NPA (%)
12.5
11.8
11.0
9.6
10.3
10.3
10.4
9.4
Net NPA (INR B)
223.8
210.6
191.3
156.1
250.3
248.9
265.0
215.8
Net NPA (%)
5.4
4.9
4.3
3.3
4.0
3.9
4.1
3.1
PCR (%)
59.9
61.8
64.0
67.6
64.1
64.4
63.8
68.9
*YoY numbers are not available as FY20 is for the merged entity while FY19 is for the un-merged entity
FY19
2Q
3Q
44,925 47,432
20.7
7.9
13,516 16,211
58,441 63,644
27,622 28,258
30,819 35,385
1.3
-3.1
24,295 27,942
6,524
7,443
2,270
2,731
4,254
4,712
19.7
321.6
FY20*
2Q
3Q
70,279 71,291
56.4
50.3
28,239 27,412
98,519 98,702
45,160 49,118
53,359 49,585
73.1
40.1
42,092 71,554
11,268 -21,970
3,901
-7,900
7,367 -14,070
73.2
-398.6
FY19
186,838
20.4
60,910
247,748
112,880
134,868
12.3
127,887
6,982
2,646
4,335
-117.8
6,387
4,688
8.0
9.7
482
9.6
156.1
3.3
67.6
FY20E
274,533
46.9
103,153
377,686
180,772
196,914
46.0
214,935
-18,021
-23,483
5,462
26.0
9,460
6,901
48.1
47.2
694
9.4
215.8
3.1
68.9
FY20
4QE
68,205
34.6
28,740
96,945
49,782
47,164
22.2
34,686
12,478
24,846
-12,368
24.8
V/s
Est
0%
-1%
-1%
-9%
9%
97%
NM
NM
NM
9,152 3%
6,644 4%
43 483
42 548
760
10.7
279.9
4.2
63.2
-9%
(127)
-23%
(108)
571
24 June 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
Exhibit 1: Merged entity performance snapshot
Merger Entity
Profit and Loss (INRm)
Net Interest Income
Other Income
Total Income
Operating Expenses
Operating Profits
Provisions
NPA provisions
PBT
Taxes
PAT
Balance Sheet (INR b)
Deposits
Loans
Investments
Asset Quality (INR b)
GNPA
NNPA
Slippages
Ratios
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA
NNPA
PCR
Business Ratios (%)
Cost to Income
CASA Reported
Loan/Deposit
Profitability Ratios (%)
Yield on loans
Yield On Investments
Cost of Deposits
Margins
4QFY20
67,980
28,340
96,320
45,120
51,210
68,440
31,900
(17,230)
(22,300)
5,070
9,460
6,901
2,746
694
216
45
4QFY19
64,730
28,650
93,380
58,760
34,610
106,190
103,680
(71,580)
17,169
(88,749)
9,152
6,514
2,656
699
238
73
YoY
5.0%
-1.1%
3.1%
-23.2%
48.0%
-35.5%
-69.2%
NM
NM
NM
3.4%
5.9%
3.4%
-0.8%
-9.3%
-38.6%
3QFY20
71,291
27,412
98,702
49,118
49,585
71,554
66,206
(21,970)
(7,900)
(14,070)
8,962
6,545
2,658
731
265
118
QoQ
-4.6%
3.4%
-2.4%
-8.1%
3.3%
-4.4%
-51.8%
NM
NM
NM
5.6%
5.4%
3.3%
-5.1%
-18.6%
-62.1%
9.4%
3.1%
68.9%
46.8%
39.1%
73.0%
7.8%
7.0%
4.8%
2.7%
10.0%
3.7%
66.0%
62.9%
37.3%
71.2%
8.0%
7.6%
5.1%
2.8%
(62)
(52)
293
(1,608)
181
178
(16)
(62)
(33)
(8)
10.4%
4.1%
63.8%
49.8%
38.8%
73.0%
7.9%
7.0%
4.9%
2.8%
(103)
(92)
514
(292)
23
(8)
(12)
(7)
(10)
(13)
Source: MOFSL, Company
24 June 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
Quarterly snapshot
FY18
FY19
FY20
INR m
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Profit and Loss
Interest Income
105,527 107,533 113,032 110,393 116,399 120,783 129,417 133,142 189,453 192,740 190,679 186,984
Loans
69,345 71,458 75,327 74,569 79,861 82,180 90,004 91,844 133,501 138,907 135,831 132,918
Investment
24,270 24,918 27,207 27,807 29,979 32,198 33,158 32,532 46,459 44,186 45,691 44,638
Others
11,913 11,158 10,499 8,017 6,559 6,405 6,255 8,765 9,493 9,647 9,158 9,429
Interest Expenses
71,478 70,328 69,092 70,370 72,588 75,858 81,985 82,472 124,472 122,460 119,389 119,003
Net Interest Income 34,050 37,205 43,940 40,023 43,811 44,925 47,432 50,670 64,981 70,279 71,291 67,982
Other Income
15,512 17,371 16,730 16,959 11,478 13,516 16,211 19,704 19,156 28,239 27,412 28,347
Trading profits
5,530 6,450 5,090 1,700 1,050
870
3,820 4,160 3,380 9,420 5,960 8,750
Forex Income
2,370
850
2,130 2,870
640
750
770
640
560
1,320
910
1,440
Recoveries
810
1,060 1,800 2,540
970
2,230 1,970 3,150 2,030 4,650 5,840 2,800
Others (Non-core) 6,802 9,011 7,710 9,849 8,818 9,666 9,651 11,754 13,186 12,849 14,702 15,357
Total Income
49,561 54,576 60,671 56,982 55,289 58,441 63,644 70,374 84,137 98,519 98,702 96,328
Operating Expenses 23,080 24,158 24,170 30,327 25,233 27,622 28,258 31,766 41,375 45,160 49,118 45,120
Employee
10,148 12,131 11,104 12,685 11,009 12,217 13,035 14,130 19,394 22,815 25,942 19,545
Others
12,932 12,026 13,065 17,642 14,224 15,405 15,223 17,636 21,980 22,345 23,176 25,576
Operating Profits
26,481 30,418 36,501 26,655 30,056 30,819 35,385 38,608 42,762 53,359 49,585 51,208
Core Operating Profits 20,951 23,968 31,411 22,085 29,006 29,949 31,565 33,808 39,382 43,939 43,625 41,018
Provisions
23,681 23,294 34,265 66,724 21,656 24,295 27,942 53,993 32,849 42,092 71,554 68,441
NPA provisions
21,570 18,470 31,550 70,525 17,600 14,670 34,160 55,501 31,684 34,253 66,206 31,906
Provisions on Inv. 1,330 1,300 1,730 3,320 4,880 6,560 -6,610 -3,440 -270 2,720
20
7,400
PBT
2,801 7,125 2,236 -40,069 8,400 6,524 7,443 -15,385 9,913 11,268 -21,970 -17,233
Taxes
767
3,571 1,118 -9,046 3,120 2,270 2,731 -5,471 2,815 3,901 -7,900 -22,299
PAT
2,034 3,554 1,118 -31,023 5,280 4,254 4,712 -9,914 7,099 7,367 -14,070 5,066
Balance Sheet (INR b)
Deposits
5,706 5,832 5,733 5,913 5,815 6,070 6,106 6,387 8,955 8,941 8,962 9,460
Loans
3,776 3,873 3,994 4,274 4,145 4,335 4,487 4,688 6,332 6,373 6,545 6,901
Asset Quality (INR b)
GNPA
462
463
485
565
559
551
532
482
697
700
731
694
NNPA
195
196
199
235
224
211
191
156
250
249
265
216
Slippages
52
35
56
126
47
38
37
35
66
73
118
45
Ratios
FY18
FY19
FY20
Asset Quality (%)
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
GNPA
11.4
11.2
11.3
12.3
12.5
11.8
11.0
9.6
10.3
10.3
10.4
9.4
NNPA
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.5
5.4
4.9
4.3
3.3
4.0
3.9
4.1
3.1
PCR
66.3
67.2
68.0
67.2
69.1
70.8
73.5
78.7
77.3
77.9
77.8
81.3
Credit Cost
2.5
1.9
3.5
6.8
2.1
1.4
2.5
4.7
2.4
2.2
4.4
1.9
Business Ratios (%)
Fees to Total Income
20.1
20.0
19.2
26.8
18.9
21.6
19.5
22.1
18.8
19.1
21.7
20.3
Cost to Core Income
52.4
50.2
43.5
54.9
46.5
48.0
47.2
48.0
51.2
50.7
53.0
51.5
Tax Rate
27.4
50.1
50.0
22.6
37.1
34.8
36.7
35.6
28.4
34.6
36.0
NM
CASA Reported
38.8
39.2
40.6
41.2
40.8
40.5
40.0
40.2
36.6
37.9
38.8
39.1
Loan/Deposit
66.2
66.4
69.7
72.3
71.3
71.4
73.5
73.4
70.7
71.3
73.0
73.0
Domestic CD Ratio
62.6
62.7
65.6
69.4
70.7
69.7
71.0
71.5
67.8
68.1
69.7
70.5
CAR
11.8
11.6
11.6
12.1
12.1
11.9
11.7
13.4
11.5
13.0
13.5
13.3
Tier I
9.8
9.6
9.5
10.5
10.5
10.3
9.9
11.6
9.6
10.9
11.5
10.7
Profitability Ratio (%)
Yield on loans
6.9
6.9
7.2
7.1
7.5
7.4
7.7
7.9
8.0
8.2
7.9
7.8
Yield On Investments
7.0
6.9
6.7
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.4
7.2
7.0
7.0
Cost of Deposits
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.8
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.8
Margins
2.1
2.3
2.7
2.5
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.7
RoA
0.1
0.2
0.1
-1.8
0.3
0.2
0.3
-0.5
0.3
0.3
-0.5
0.2
Change (%)
YoY QoQ
40
45
37
8
44
34
44
110
125
-11
31
37
42
38
45
33
21
27
-43
-315
NM
NM
NM
48
47
-2
-2
-2
3
0
-5
3
47
58
-52
4
-2
-8
-25
10
3
-6
-4
-52
NM
NM
NM
NM
6
5
44
-5
38
-19
29
-62
Change (bps)
YoY QoQ
-21
-103
-20
-92
265
356
-281 -253
-174
355
NM
-116
-45
-94
-12
-84
-5
-53
-4
-23
70
-139
-144
NM
23
-8
87
-18
-74
-12
-7
-10
-13
70
Note: FY18 and FY19 quarterly numbers are BOB standalone numbers
24 June 2020
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
Highlights from management commentary
Opening remarks by Mr. Sanjiv Chadha as new MD and CEO
The bank is witnessing healthy traction in CASA deposits and expects it to
strengthen further.
Focus would be toward strengthening the balance sheet and being more
conservative in NPA recognition norms. At present, the bank provides 20%
provisions on the sub-standard NPA category (v/s 15% regulatory requirement).
Slippage ratio for FY21 should be around the current levels despite COVID.
The bank is setting a digital lending department with focus on car financing,
personal loans and education loans, etc.
~80-90% of the savings accounts are opening through tab banking currently.
Moratorium update
Initially the bank offered ‘opt out’ facility to all its customers.
~65% of the loan
book availed moratorium as at end-Apr’20. It declined to ~55% as at end-
May’20.
The bank expects it to decline to 35% over the next few months.
The bank has changed the moratorium policy with ‘opt out’ facility for only
below INR1m while ‘opt in’ facility is available for above INR1m. Thus, it expects
moratorium numbers to decline sharply.
Credit guarantee scheme
MSME portfolio eligible under the credit guarantee scheme is INR550b, and
thus, incremental lending opportunity stands at INR100b. Around two-third of
the incremental lending opportunity is already sanctioned, of which, one-third
has been disbursed.
The bank recovered ~INR60b through compromise, NCLT platform, etc. There
are few accounts (exposure INR25b), which got upgraded during the quarter.
Balance sheet and P&L related
Domestic retail term deposits are reflecting strong traction. Further, CASA share
is also rising.
Global NIMs have declined due to the liquidity decision taken by the central
banks of different countries.
Expect retail loan growth to slow down in the near term.
Loan mix target –
corporates would comprise 50% while the rest would be balanced between Agri,
retail and MSMEs.
The wage hike was assumed at 12%.
Total re-valuation reserves stand at INR60.8b.
BOB has small exposure to unsecured portfolio (INR40b – 3% of retail book).
~5% of the loans are linked to external benchmark currently.
In the NBFC portfolio,
the AA & above portfolio is ~90% while A & above
portfolio is 95%. NBFC forms 15% of the total portfolio with significant focus
toward high-rated portfolio.
Total investment in the Non-SLR category stands at INR520b.
Asset Quality
Addition to the watch-list largely came from the international portfolio
(~INR20b).
5
24 June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
Significant part of the international exposure is toward very high quality
portfolio.
Of the total exposure of INR40b where standstill benefit was taken, the bank has
already recovered ~INR15b.
SMA overdue forms 11% of the total loans, of which, SMA-0 is 8%.
The bank has a standard asset provision buffer of INR72.5b.
The bank does not expect any stress due to COVID on large corporate portfolios.
Total exposure toward DHFL stands at INR20b, on which, the bank has made a
provision of INR5b.
Total security receipts stand at INR17.8b.
Guidance
The bank has guided for 100bp improvement on the C/I ratio over FY21E as
significant cost rationalization is yet to come through branch rationalization.
It expects margins to remain broadly flattish or slightly lower.
Recoveries in FY21 would be lower than FY20 impacted by COVID.
Key Exhibits
Exhibit 1: Watch-list for the merged entity stood at INR125b
Watch-list (INRm)
Power
Road & EPC
Iron & Steel
Textile
Others
Total
SMA-2
(on global
advance portfolio)
SMA-1
( on global
advance portfolio)
1QFY20
NA
23,510
24,600
3,750
1,13,150
1,65,010
1.48%
2QFY20
24,140
31,520
5,760
1,500
68,580
1,45,000
1.63%
3QFY20
12,440
30,630
2,970
14,240
44,720
105,000
1.54%
4QFY20
9,270
31,190
2,850
12,850
68,840
125,000
1.20%
Exhibit 2: Overall coverage stood at ~88%
Exposure (INRb)
NCLT 1 list
NCLT 2 list
A/c's filed by BoB at NCLT
A/C's filed by other banks
Total
Provision coverage (%)
NCLT 1 list
NCLT 2 list
A/c's filed by BoB at NCLT
A/C's filed by other banks
Total
1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20
58.2
58.3
57.8
48.8
69.6
67.9
64.4
60.6
38.5
65.0
59.8
58.9
205.1
306.9
320.9
350.2
371.4
498.0
502.9
518.4
97.4%
84.9%
88.8%
87.5%
88.7%
98.7%
84.4%
83.8%
86.0%
87.0%
99.4%
87.6%
90.3%
86.1%
88.9%
99.6%
93.0%
92.9%
84.8%
88.0%
2.12%
2.20%
2.06%
1.20%
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Valuation and view
Macro environment remains challenging due to the COVID-19 outbreak, which
has impacted growth and credit quality outlook.
Though BOB has reported an improvement in asset quality ratios and
provisioning coverage, it has come on account of asset classification benefits
availed by the bank.
Watch-list at 1.8% of loans and higher SMA-1/2 book of 1.2% each along with
the Unrated/BB & Below book of 24% remain a concern. Higher moratorium
book of 55% is likely to keep asset quality under pressure, and thus, we estimate
credit cost to remain elevated over FY21.
Buy with a target price of INR65:
We, thus, cut EPS estimate for FY21/FY22E by
34%/5%. However, we maintain
Buy
with target price of INR65 (0.6x FY22E ABV)
as current valuations appear reasonable.
24 June 2020
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
Exhibit 3: We cut EPS estimate for FY21/FY22E by 34%/5%, as we increase our credit cost projection and fine-tune
margin/growth estimates (INR b)
Old Est
Net Interest Income
Other Income
Total Income
Operating Expenses
Operating Profits
Provisions
PBT
Tax
PAT
Loans
Deposits
Margins (%)
Credit Cost (%)
RoA (%)
RoE (%)
BV
ABV
EPS
FY21
289.2
111.8
401.0
197.0
204.0
163.4
40.7
10.2
30.4
6,976
9,609
2.7
2.4
0.3
4.4
148.4
93.4
6.6
FY21
314.9
120.8
435.7
210.4
225.3
161.0
64.2
16.2
48.1
7,465
10,282
2.8
2.2
0.4
6.6
157.0
104.1
10.5
Revised Est
FY21
284.5
111.4
395.9
188.0
207.8
181.2
26.7
6.7
19.9
7,246
10,122
2.6
2.6
0.2
2.7
152.9
104
4
FY22
309.8
120.3
430.2
202.4
227.7
166.9
60.8
15.3
45.5
7,826
11,033
2.6
2.2
0.4
6.1
160.8
114
10
Change (%)/bps
FY21
FY22
-1.6
-1.6
-0.4
-0.4
-1.3
-1.3
-4.6
-3.8
1.9
1.1
10.9
3.6
-34.4
-5.3
-34.4
-5.3
-34.4
-5.3
3.9
4.8
5.3
7.3
(14)
(16)
16
(2)
(10)
(4)
(162)
(55)
3.0
2.4
10.9
9.6
-34.8
-5.9
Exhibit 4: One-year forward P/B
P/B (x)
Min (x)
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.9
0.7
0.3
0.3
1.2
Avg (x)
+1SD
Max (x)
-1SD
1.8
Exhibit 5: One-year forward P/E
P/E (x)
Min (x)
39.2
48.0
36.0
24.0
12.0
0.0
Avg (x)
+1SD
Max (x)
-1SD
15.1
8.9
2.7 4.9 6.0
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
24 June 2020
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
Story in Charts
Exhibit 6: Annualized slippage ratio moderated to 3.8%
Slippages (INRb)
Exhibit 7: Calculated PCR stood at 69%
GNPA (%)
NNPA (%)
PCR (%)
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 8: Cost to core income stood at ~51.5%
54
60
60
51
51
50
50
48 49 50
43
55
47 48 47 48
Exhibit 9: Loan for the merged entity grew at 5.9% YoY
Loans (INR b)
51
51 53 52
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 10: Domestic/global NIMs stood at 2.81%/2.67%
Dom. NIM
Global NIM
Exhibit 11: Yield on loans declined to 7.8%; cost of deposits
decreased to 4.8%
Yield on Loans
Cost of Deposits
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
24 June 2020
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
Exhibit 12: DuPont Analysis – We expect return ratios to remain under pressure in the near term
Y/E MARCH
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Net Interest Income
Fee income
Trading and others
Other income
Total Income
Operating Expenses
Employee cost
Others
Operating Profits
Core operating Profits
Provisions
NPA
Others
PBT
Tax
RoA (%)
Leverage (x)
RoE (%)
FY16
6.36
4.52
1.84
0.55
0.17
0.72
2.56
1.29
0.72
0.57
1.27
1.10
2.24
2.02
0.22
-0.97
-0.19
-0.78
19.6
-15.3
FY17
6.18
4.20
1.98
0.61
0.38
0.99
2.97
1.36
0.68
0.68
1.61
1.22
1.24
1.17
0.07
0.36
0.16
0.20
19.8
4.0
FY18
6.17
3.98
2.19
0.68
0.27
0.94
3.14
1.44
0.65
0.79
1.70
1.43
2.09
2.03
0.06
-0.39
-0.05
-0.34
18.0
-6.2
FY19
6.66
4.17
2.49
0.68
0.13
0.81
3.30
1.50
0.67
0.83
1.80
1.67
1.70
1.64
0.06
0.09
0.04
0.06
15.9
0.9
FY20
7.84
5.01
2.83
0.98
0.09
1.06
3.90
1.86
0.90
0.96
2.03
1.94
2.22
2.22
0.00
-0.19
-0.24
0.06
15.8
0.9
FY21E
6.45
4.06
2.39
0.87
0.06
0.93
3.32
1.58
0.8
0.79
1.74
1.68
1.52
1.54
-0.02
0.22
0.06
0.17
16.4
2.7
FY22E
6.39
3.97
2.42
0.89
0.05
0.94
3.36
1.58
0.8
0.79
1.78
1.73
1.30
1.30
0.01
0.48
0.12
0.36
17.0
6.1
24 June 2020
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Net Interest Income
Growth (%)
Non-Interest Income
Total Income
Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Pre Provision Profits
Growth (%)
Core PPP
Growth (%)
Provisions (excl. tax)
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
PAT
Growth (%)
FY16
440.6
313.2
127.4
-3.4
50.0
177.4
0.8
89.2
88.2
-11.1
76.4
-14.3
155.1
-67.0
-13.0
19.4
-54.0
NM
FY17
422.0
286.9
135.1
6.1
67.6
202.7
14.3
93.0
109.8
24.5
83.6
9.4
85.0
24.7
10.9
44.1
13.8
NM
FY18
436.5
281.3
155.2
14.9
66.6
221.8
9.4
101.7
120.1
9.4
101.3
21.2
148.0
-27.9
-3.6
12.9
-24.3
NM
FY19
499.7
312.9
186.8
20.4
60.9
247.7
11.7
112.9
134.9
12.3
125.0
23.4
127.9
7.0
2.6
37.9
4.3
NM
FY20
759.9
485.3
274.5
46.9
103.2
377.7
52.4
180.8
196.9
46.0
188.5
50.8
214.9
-18.0
-23.5
130.3
5.5
26.0
FY21E
768.3
483.8
284.5
3.6
111.4
395.9
4.8
188.0
207.8
5.5
200.7
6.5
181.2
26.7
6.7
25.2
19.9
265.1
(INRb)
FY22E
818.3
508.4
309.8
8.9
120.3
430.2
8.7
202.4
227.7
9.6
221.6
10.4
166.9
60.8
15.3
25.2
45.5
128.2
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Deposits
Growth (%)
of which CASA Dep
Growth (%)
Borrowings
Other Liabilities & Prov.
Total Liabilities
Current Assets
Investments
Growth (%)
Loans
Growth (%)
Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
FY16
4.6
397.4
402.0
5,740.4
-7.0
1,513.3
-7.1
334.7
236.7
6,713.8
1,339.0
1,204.5
3.1
3,837.7
-10.3
62.5
270.0
6,713.8
FY17
4.6
398.4
403.0
6,016.8
4.8
1,935.0
27.9
306.1
222.9
6,948.8
1,504.7
1,296.3
7.6
3,832.6
-0.1
57.6
257.6
6,948.8
FY18
5.3
428.6
433.9
5,913.1
-1.7
2,117.8
9.4
625.7
227.2
7,200.0
929.0
1,631.8
25.9
4,274.3
11.5
53.7
311.2
7,200.0
FY19
5.3
504.5
509.8
6,386.9
8.0
2,237.9
5.7
672.0
241.1
7,809.9
892.3
1,823.0
11.7
4,688.2
9.7
69.9
336.5
7,809.9
FY20
9.3
709.3
718.6
9,459.8
48.1
3,310.9
47.9
930.7
470.1
11,579.2
1,219.0
2,746.1
50.6
6,901.2
47.2
88.9
623.9
11,579.2
FY21E
9.3
722.8
732.1
10,122.0
7.0
3,613.6
9.1
836.2
564.1
12,254.3
1,150.6
3,048.2
11.0
7,246.3
5.0
146.1
663.1
12,254.3
FY22E
9.3
759.7
769.0
11,033.0
9.0
4,038.1
11.7
887.7
648.7
13,338.4
1,251.7
3,383.5
11.0
7,826.0
8.0
157.8
719.4
13,338.4
Asset Quality
GNPA
NNPA
GNPA Ratio
NNPA Ratio
Slippage Ratio
Credit Cost
PCR (Excl. Tech. write off)
405.2
194.1
10.0
5.1
6.5
3.5
52.1
427.2
180.8
10.5
4.7
3.5
2.1
57.7
564.8
234.8
12.3
5.5
6.0
3.5
58.4
482.3
156.1
9.6
3.3
3.0
2.7
67.6
693.8
215.8
9.4
3.1
5.2
3.7
68.9
854.2
291.5
10.9
4.0
5.7
2.6
65.9
861.7
270.6
10.24
3.46
3.50
2.20
68.6
24 June 2020
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Yield and Cost Ratios (%)
Avg. Yield-Earning Assets
Avg. Yield on loans
Avg. Yield on Investments
Avg. Cost-Int. Bear. Liabilities
Avg. Cost of Deposits
Interest Spread
Net Interest Margin
Capitalization Ratios (%)
CAR
Tier I
Tier II
Business and Efficiency Ratios (%)
Loans/Deposit Ratio
CASA Ratio
Cost/Assets
Cost/Total Income
Cost/Core Income
Int. Expense/Int. Income
Fee Income/Total Income
Non Int. Inc./Total Income
Emp. Cost/Total Expense
Investment/Deposit Ratio
FY16
6.8
7.3
9.0
5.0
4.9
1.9
2.0
FY17
6.7
7.2
8.5
4.6
4.6
2.1
2.2
FY18
6.5
7.2
7.3
4.4
4.4
2.1
2.3
FY19
7.0
7.7
7.5
4.6
4.5
2.4
2.6
FY20
8.3
9.3
8.1
5.6
5.5
2.8
3.0
FY21E
6.9
7.5
7.2
4.5
4.6
2.4
2.6
FY22E
6.8
7.5
6.9
4.4
4.5
2.4
2.6
13.2
10.8
2.3
12.2
9.9
2.2
12.9
11.3
1.6
13.4
11.6
1.9
13.3
10.7
2.6
12.5
10.0
2.6
11.8
9.4
2.4
66.9
26.4
1.3
50.3
53.9
71.1
21.5
28.2
55.8
21.0
63.7
32.2
1.3
45.9
52.7
68.0
20.4
33.3
49.9
21.5
72.3
35.8
1.4
45.9
50.1
64.4
21.5
30.0
45.3
27.6
73.4
35.0
1.4
45.6
47.5
62.6
20.6
24.6
44.6
28.5
73.0
35.0
1.6
47.9
49.0
63.9
25.1
27.3
48.5
29.0
71.6
35.7
1.5
47.5
48.4
63.0
26.3
28.1
49.9
30.1
70.9
36.6
1.5
47.1
47.7
62.1
26.6
28.0
50.1
30.7
Profitability Ratios and Valuation
RoE
RoA
RoRWA
Book Value (INR)
Growth (%)
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
Growth (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Dividend Per Share (INR)
Dividend Yield (%)
-15.3
-0.8
-1.4
164.2
-7.3
0.3
98.0
0.5
-23.8
NM
-2.2
0.0
0.0
4.0
0.2
0.3
165.9
1.1
0.3
107.2
0.5
6.0
NM
8.6
1.4
2.8
-5.8
-0.3
-0.6
157.1
-5.3
0.3
90.9
0.6
-9.80
NM
-5.3
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.1
0.1
182.9
16.4
0.3
136.3
0.4
1.63
NM
31.6
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.1
0.1
149.9
-18.0
0.3
112.7
0.5
1.50
-8.2
34.4
0.0
0.0
2.7
0.2
0.3
152.9
1.9
0.3
103.6
0.5
4.3
187.1
12.0
1.4
2.7
6.1
0.4
0.7
160.8
5.2
0.3
114.2
0.5
9.8
128.2
5.2
1.9
3.6
24 June 2020
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
NOTES
24 June 2020
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within
following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the
Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial
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available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a
registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and
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buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other
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A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental
research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated
from MOFSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
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securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not
located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under
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brokerage and investment services provided by MOFSL , including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is
intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as
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this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration
provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-
dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this
chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S.
registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets
services license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore.As per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and
Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL
in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”,
of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“the
SFA”). Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and
inform MOCMSPL.
Specific Disclosures
1 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject
company.
2 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
3 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
4 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report
5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company
6 MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
7 MOFSL has received compensation for investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
24 June 2020
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Bank of Baroda
8 MOFSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12
months
9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
********************************************************************************************************************************
The associates of MOFSL may have:
-
financial interest in the subject company
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actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
-
received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
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other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on
the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL
even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
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acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
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be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the
company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
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received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from
clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent
of MOFSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in
nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty,
representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The
report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as
customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or
distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for
informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing
in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances.
The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this
document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this
document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views
expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade
securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of
the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and
should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make
modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from
time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to
perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a
separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of
information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or
may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or
entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in
all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost
revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its
affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such
misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages,
expenses that may be suffered by the person
accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;
Website
www.motilaloswal.com.CIN
no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road,
Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth
Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is
a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.
Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.
Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no
assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance
Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
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