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Box Office: 'Dune' Must Avoid The Mistakes That Doomed 'Blade Runner 2049'

This article is more than 5 years old.

Warner Bros. and Sony

We got word yesterday (and now today) of yet another “movie star” joining the cast for Legendary Entertainment’s Dune. The Denis Villeneuve-directed adaptation of Frank Herbert’s classic sci-fi novel, penned by Eric Roth and Jon Spaihts, has been setting the internet on fire on a regular basis with its buzzy casting picks. Thus far, barring changes or variables, we’ve got Timothée Chalamet, Oscar Isaac, Rebecca Ferguson, Javier Bardem, Zendaya, Dave Bautista, Charlotte Rampling, Stellan Skarsgård and now Josh Brolin (and now Jason Momoa) onboard for what is supposed to be a two-part film based on the first book in the series.

Dune is a groundbreaking novel, one that inspired much of the sci-fi that came after (including Star Wars). It’s likely that the man who directed Prisoners, Enemy, Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 will deliver a knockout fantasy actioner. But will general audiences care? There is a long history of movies that were much buzzed-about online only to play to comparatively empty theaters. Think Kick-Ass (which did an okay $98 million worldwide), Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World, Dredd, John Carter, Edge of Tomorrow (which earned a fine $370m worldwide but with a $175m budget) or Blade Runner 2049. Yes, come what may, a major studio is again giving Villeneuve potentially gobs of money to make a big-budget sci-fi spectacle based on a cult sci-fi property whose previous movie was a massive flop.

Blade Runner 2049 was a critically acclaimed sequel to a cult flop and earned just $259 million on a (depending on who you ask) $150m-$185m budget. David Lynch’s Dune earned poor reviews and grossed just $31m domestic on a $40m budget back in 1984. That would be around $81m adjusted for inflation, although the budget would be around $105m in 2019.   This isn’t to say that Dune is automatically doomed, although the odds are not in its favor.

The mere notion of a big-budget fantasy spectacular is no longer enough to lure audiences into theaters, as we’ve seen with Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Tomorrowland, Jupiter Ascending and (barring a miracle) this week’s Alita: Battle Angel. Merely having movie stars like George Clooney and Channing Tatum aren’t enough if audiences don’t know or care about who they are playing. Even Tom Cruise couldn’t make The Mummy into a smash since he was just playing “some guy” who had to stop the title villain. That huge cast, and it is impressive, is not made up of by-themselves box office draws. Their ensemble value notwithstanding, they may only be of value if the heroes and villains of Dune are remotely household names.

It’s not like folks have been clamoring for The Paul Atreides Story. They (especially overseas audiences) didn’t even care about a Han Solo movie with Star Wars slapped on the title. That being said, if it turns out to be visually compelling and halfway decent (yes, I’m the dolt who disliked Blade Runner 2049, but I can admit I’m in the minority), the key to even potential success for Legendary and (presumably, considering their recent reunion) Warner Bros. lies in a two factors. First and foremost, I am optimistic that Legendary is learning one big lesson and not spending $155 million on this picture. Blade Runner 2049, an adult-skewing, R-rated sci-fi drama, earned $92m domestic and $259m worldwide. That would have been pretty decent (but not spectacular) on a $90m budget, as opposed to the Ryan Gosling/Harrison Ford picture’s $160m price tag.

John Carter grossed $272 million worldwide but on a $250m budget. Tomorrowland grossed $209m global on $190m budget while Valerian earned $220m worldwide with a $175m price tag. Had those films been budgeted closer to $100m-$125m, presuming such a thing was even possible, they would have been far less disastrous. It’s not quite the same, but Paul Feig’s Ghostbusters did okay for a comedy ($229m worldwide), but it cost $144m to produce so it was a $70m loser for Sony. Speaking of Sony, the second factor is the specific lesson of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. That film went out of its way in terms of casting (Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black and Karen Gillan), concept (kids trapped in a video game) and marketing to make sure it looked appealing even to folks with zero interest in the Jumanji IP. Cue a $404m domestic and $962m global cume. Now that’s a pie-in-the-sky scenario for any movie, but the cause-and-effect lesson still applies.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was cheap enough to not have to break records. It was also constructed and sold so as to not rely on the IP as a major selling force. Blade Runner 2049’s intentionally cryptic and spoiler-free marketing and prerelease campaign (where critics were instructed not to reveal plot points that literally occurred in the opening scenes) had nothing to offer except its links to the 1982 Ridley Scott flick. To the extent that Harrison Ford hasn’t been much of a draw outside of Star Wars and Indiana Jones since 2000 and Ryan Gosling isn’t an opener, the pitch was basically “Hey, it’s another Blade Runner!” It was so expensive that it had to sell vastly more tickets than the original Blade Runner and become Ford’s biggest non-Han Solo/Indy hit just to break even. This did not happen.

We don’t even know for sure which studio is distributing the movie, although I will presume it is Warner Bros. since the Dream Factory inked a deal with Legendary (beginning with Detective Pikachu) late last year. But whichever studio handles this one, along with whatever companies alongside Legendary is actually producing it, should know that Dune is thus far resembling the kind of movie that can no longer survive alongside the more crowd-pleaser and popular character-specific superhero movies. If Dune wants any chance at succeeding, let alone spawning a franchise, it has to make sure that it’s cheap enough that merely equaling John Carter or Blade Runner 2049’s global gross will qualify it as a hit. Moreover, it needs to treat its source material not as a surefire crutch but as a jumping-off point (if not an outright obstacle) to selling the film to general moviegoers.

It can’t rely on IP, as Dune is filled with little-known characters and archetypes that will feel old hat thanks to the movies Dune inspired (think John Carter syndrome). It can’t depend on that its ensemble cast, as they are not by-themselves openers and may not be enough to make a wonky sci-fi fantasy property into a must-see flick. It certainly cannot assume that the online gushing is representative of the general audience interest. Dune faces an uphill battle, although just how steep will depend on how much it costs. That is not to say that Dune is doomed, but that the film’s conception and marketing will have to find a way to appeal to folks who haven’t heard of Dune or don’t care about Dune. You’ve already got the fans on board. The next few years will be about preaching to the unconverted.

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