With a first-time college coach and a roster that on paper looked depleted, Alabama was picked by the media to finish 13th in the Southeastern Conference.
Now, as long as Alabama doesn't tank the rest of its schedule, it should make the NCAA Tournament, according to a leading bracket prognosticator.
Patrick Stevens, who projects the tournament for The Washington Post, regularly finishes with better projections than ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CBS' Jerry Palm, according to the Bracket Matrix. Stevens currently has Alabama as a 10-seed in his NCAA Tournament projections and believes the Crimson Tide is in good shape to partake in March Madness.
"They have a couple of good wins and they really haven't done anything terrible outside of that loss to Auburn which isn't that great," Stevens said. "They've played a good schedule; they've won games away from home. It's actually a really solid profile."
Lunardi told AL.com on Monday he thought Alabama would "come up a little bit short" but did move the Tide into his Tuesday night bracket.
Alabama is bolstered by a top 35 RPI and a 4-5 record against top 50 opponents this season. The Tide's November win against No. 19 Notre Dame on a neutral court serves as the gem of its resume, though wins against Wichita State, Clemson and South Carolina are also well-regarded.
Alabama has a chance to add two more marquee wins to its resume -- at LSU tonight and at Kentucky on Feb. 23 -- and Lunardi believes at least one more is needed. However, Stevens believes the bigger key is to avoid letdown losses.
Alabama has three home games remaining and all feature opponents currently residing in the SEC's cellar. Mississippi State, Auburn and Arkansas are three of the five worst teams in the SEC standings and a loss to any of them could diminish the Tide's tournament chances. Another loss to in-state rival Auburn would be especially bad with Kareem Canty no longer with the Tigers.
"If you're Alabama, against all odds, you are more in preservation mode," Stevens said. "You want to hold serve at home against all those three teams you play down the stretch - Mississippi State, Auburn, Arkansas - those games would be complete trap doors. It'd really hurt them if they lost those games.
"Overall, if you're Alabama, you have to simply be decent the rest of the way."
If things do break Alabama's way -- maybe a win against Kentucky and a win or two in the SEC Tournament -- the Tide could move all the way up to the 6 or 7-seed line, according to Stevens though a 7-seed would be more likely.