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Will Brock Osweiler and other Broncos' free agents re-sign?

Next month there are 25 players of the Denver Broncos who currently will become free agents, including 19 who will be unrestricted. Nine of the Super Bowl starters are among the free agents.

ESPN’s Mike Sando wrote an article about the best team for Brock Osweiler.

Exploring options in free agency could be tempting if Denver lets Osweiler test the market.

But if Osweiler and his agent are wise, they will leap at the chance to stay put. Denver’s dominant defense could be the No. 1 variable for Osweiler’s own long-term earning ability.

Brock Osweiler (17) of the Denver Broncos celebrates after winning Super Bowl 50 at Levi's Stadium on February 7, 2016 in Santa Clara, California. The Denver Broncos defeated the Carolina Panthers 24-10. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Brock Osweiler (17) of the Denver Broncos celebrates after winning Super Bowl 50 at Levi’s Stadium on February 7, 2016 in Santa Clara, California. The Denver Broncos defeated the Carolina Panthers 24-10. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Of the current 59 Broncos players both active and on injured reserve, 25 were signed as free agents, 27 were Broncos draft picks, and seven were Broncos undrafted free agents.

This chart shows the breakdown by class year:

Denver Broncos Roster by Class Year

In March, 25 Broncos players are set to become free agents, 19 of them unrestricted and nine current starters.

Miller’s current four-year contract expired after Super Bowl 50 and he is an unrestricted free agent. His $21,000,380 contract includes a $13,773,004 signing bonus, $21,000,380 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $5,250,095.

The Denver Post’s Woody Paige writes “Miller will get a $100 million-plus contract off this game.” The question is how big will the “plus” be.

Last off-season Kansas City Chiefs 3-4 outside linebacker Justin Houston signed a $101 million contract for 6 years, averaging $16,833,333 per year. His guaranteed money is $32.5 million.

Expect Miller to receive money from the Broncos north of Houston’s.

Perhaps the appropriate benchmarks are Miami Dolphins 4-3 defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh’s $114.375 million 6-year contract with $59.955 million guaranteed money and Houston Texans 3-4 defensive end J.J. Watt’s $100 million 6-year contract with $20,876,385 guaranteed.

For the 2016 season Miller is expected to get the team’s franchise tag, and receive at least $14 million.

The Broncos current salary cap status for 2016 is $141,938,995. At present the offense gets a lop-sided share of $76,448,818.  Defense is only $56,163,275, with special teams at $5,435,000.

According to John Breech of CBS Sports, the expected 2016 NFL salary cap will be $153,400,000, an increase of $10,120,000 from 2015.

Peyton Manning is scheduled to receive $21,500,000 in 2016 for his final year of his 5-year contract. It is unlikely that the 39 year-old Broncos quarterback will return.

Defensive end DeMarcus Ware is contracted to receive $11,666,668 and left tackle Ryan Clady $10.1 million from the Broncos in 2016.

Ware will be 34 years old by training camp. His persistent back injury caused him to miss five games this season. It is unlikely that Ware will stay with the Broncos if he seeks the highest-paying contract.

Former All-Pro Clady, 29, is recovering from a torn left ACL that caused him to miss the entire season. He also missed most of the 2013 season with a left foot Lisfranc injury. But Clady told AP, “I’m definitely willing to talk. I definitely would like to be a lifetime Bronco.” While he has not been approached by the team about his contract, he said, “I’m sure that’ll come after the season.”

There is a bubble of unrestricted free agents with the highly productive Broncos’ class of 2012. Defensive end Derek Wolfe recently agreed to a 4-year contract worth $36.7 million with $17.5 million guaranteed.  But that leaves to be re-signed safety Omar Bolden, running back Ronnie Hillman, defensive end Malik Jackson, inside linebacker Brandon Marshall, Osweiler, and inside linebacker Danny Trevathian.

Other veteran unrestricted free agents include safety David Bruton and tackles Ryan Harris and Tyler Polumbus.

Marshall turned down a contract offer from the Broncos but said that he would like to return to the team.

It is problematic as to the Broncos’ keep both inside linebackers, Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan.

Marshall will be a restricted free agent, allowing the team to match any outside offer. One option is to retain him on tender for a year while signing Trevathan, the leading Broncos’ regular season tackler (110). A benchmark for contract negotiations is Philadelphia Eagles’ inside linebacker Mychal Kendricks’ deal. In August 2015, he signed a four-year agreement for $29 million with $17 million guaranteed.

Broncos Executive Vice President for Football Operations John Elway has put his Stanford economics degree to good use with careful player-personnel decision-making to keep dead money down. For 2016 it is only $926,638 which will help solve the problem of paying a rich pool of talent with a constraining salary cap.

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