Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo and Tyler-Longview areas.

Light to moderate density residual smoke and aerosols from seasonal fire activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula has largely receded and is currently affecting primarily the southernmost parts of Texas. Farther north, light winds combined with elevated relative humidity levels have facilitated slightly increased urban fine particulate background levels across the eastern two-thirds of the state. While intermittent precipitation could help wash out some of the fine particulate matter, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, particularly over portions of South Padre Island; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Laredo areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light morning winds and lower morning vertical mixing heights could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range and the daily PM10 AQI to the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Light to moderate density residual smoke from ongoing seasonal fire activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to continue lingering over the eastern two-thirds of the state while possibly beginning to spread back westward and northward over the Permian Basin, South Plains, and portions of the Texas Panhandle, although intermittent heavy precipitation at times across the Texas Panhandle should help reduce fine particulate levels and keep them low. While much of the heavier density smoke is expected to remain aloft, enough could reach the surface, combined with elevated relative humidity levels and urban fine particulate background levels for the daily PM2.5 AQI to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, particularly over portions of South Padre Island; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Laredo areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Bryan-College Station, Houston, Midland-Odessa, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Lubbock, and Tyler-Longview areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of Far West Texas associated with light morning winds and limited morning vertical mixing could raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Model guidance indicates that the light to moderate density residual smoke from ongoing seasonal fire activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula may expand across the entire state at various intensities. Depending on rain showers that should help wash out some of the fine particulate matter, the residual smoke aerosols combined with slightly elevated relative humidity levels and urban fine particulate background levels could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, particularly over portions of South Padre Island; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Laredo areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of Far West Texas associated with light morning winds and limited morning vertical mixing could maintain the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo area.

Residual smoke will continue to be the primary pollutant across a large portion of the state, stretching as far as portions of Far West Texas during the morning and afternoon hours. Moisture will remain high across almost all regions with dew points in the 60s extending into portions of the eastern and southern Panhandle ahead of a cold front forecast to stall just east of the Permian Basin and Panhandle by late afternoon. Meanwhile, gusty winds behind the cold front in eastern New Mexico and portions of the northern/central Panhandle could result in localized patchy blowing dust in addition to areas of blowing dust transported eastward out of New Mexico. The widespread smoke, blowing dust, and copious amounts of moisture are likely to keep fine particulate matter elevated across most of the affected areas, particularly earlier in the day. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Laredo areas; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of Far West Texas associated with light morning winds and limited morning vertical mixing could maintain the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Light to moderate residual smoke emanating from central-southern Mexico, Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula could remain stagnant over the eastern two thirds of the state as southerly winds continue to pump high relative humidity into the eastern two thirds of Texas. The combination could keep elevated fine particulate matter widespread with the daily PM2.5 AQI forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Laredo areas; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Waco-Killeen areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Light morning winds and stable atmospheric conditions in Far West Texas could keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.