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Parkas or shorts? Long johns or t-shirts? These are the deep questions you’ll need to face this week in Canada.

40-degree temperature range across the west


Erin Wenckstern
Meteorologist

Monday, February 8, 2016, 9:26 AM - Parkas or shorts? Long johns or T-shirts? These are the deep questions you’ll need to face this week in Canada. 

Over a 40-degree temperature range will set up across the Prairies Monday and Tuesday, where daytime highs will soar into the high teens for southern Alberta; neighbours in Manitoba will feel like the -30’s. 

Why? Here's a quick atmospheric explanation.

During the third week of January, some energy caused a “sudden stratospheric warming” event, or “SSW” for short. It’s a phenomenon that disrupts the normal pattern in the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere directly above where we live (the troposphere). This in turn impacts weather patterns where we live.

The SSW is predicted to peak this week, with record warming into the polar region of the stratosphere. This will promote a building ridge in the jet stream over western Canada, with mild and dry air from California to Northern British Columbia. Meanwhile, it will displace the polar vortex (a very cold pool of air) from its home in the North Pole to the eastern Prairies through Atlantic Canada. 

What we are left with is a highly amplified pattern in the jet stream and subsequent drastic temperature contrasts across North America; a dominant pattern we’ve seen over these past few years. See image below.

What Can You Expect? Here are five impacts across the west:

1. Temperature records will likely be broken from British Columbia to Alberta and down towards Los Angeles, California, Monday and Tuesday.

2. In general, temperatures will be 5-20 degrees above seasonal across the West, 10° to 15° below seasonal in eastern Prairies, with Saskatchewan as the dividing zone. 

The highest temperatures are likely in southern Alberta, with Lethbridge forecast to reach 19°C Tuesday.

3. Mild pacific flow will push freezing levels over 3,000 m, the highest this winter, and cause snow to rapidly melt across the mountains, increasing the avalanche risk.

4. High pressure will be its strongest Monday and Tuesday for the west, but an upper-level low building over the Pacific Ocean Wednesday will force the ridge further inland and open the west coast to shower activity to end the week. Regardless, temperatures will still remain above seasonal through Friday.

5. The coldest air of the week arrives Friday as an Arctic high sits itself over southern Manitoba. Daytime highs anywhere from -20°C to -30°C for the province.

Now, if you live in Ontario or Quebec, not to worry, you will get your fair share of cold late week and into the weekend; record-breaking low temperatures are likely, as the Arctic high descends out of the Prairies.

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