UBS autos analyst Colin Langan is out with a report on 2016 new car launches and how they will affect he competitive positioning of major automakers.
Much of the note is about US market share, which for 2016 looks as if it will be fairly stable.
However, Langan musters an interesting insight about General Motors' Chevrolet brand — and one of Chevy's newest cars.
It's the Malibu. Yes, that's right: the 2016 version of a four-door that has been in and out of the Chevy lineup since 1964 (there was a period from the mid-1980s until the late 1990s that the 'Bu went away, but it was relaunched in 1997 with a front-wheel drive version, replacing the classic rear-wheel-drive setup).
Larger sedans aren't exactly where it's at right now in the US car market, which is currently being ruled by trucks and SUVs. You'd think that a model with a very deep legacy and a name that evokes certain California fantasies that died out sometime early in the Reagan administration would be a tough sell.
But it won't be, as far as Langan is concerned.
"GM is ... positioned to gain from the Malibu launched late-2015," he wrote. "We expect competition in the mid-size car segment to be light due to few launches, setting up the Malibu to gain segment share this year."
For what it's worth, this is why "launch cadence," as it's known in the auto industry, is important. The market likes new cars, so if you have new vehicles coming out in segments when other automakers don't, you can gain ground.
The Malibu is of those perennial also-ran family sedans that GM has been trying to bolster for years. It plays in tough territory, alongside bestsellers such as the Toyota Camry and the Honda Accord.
That said, GM has ambitious sales goals for the vehicle, of between 200,000 to 300,000 units per year, according to various reports.
We briefly sampled the new Malibu last year (not long enough for a full-on review) and were impressed with the car's combination of comfort and technology. And GM highlighted Malibu sales for January, noting that the car is off to its best start since 1981 — back when it was still a big, boxy American sedan pushed around by its back tires.
The majority of people I've spoken with in the auto industry since the LA Auto Show last November expect a solid US sales year in 2016, which means that car makers that have the right mix of vehicles and if the sales pace runs at about 17-18 million, there will be a dogfight for market share.
So if GM wants the Malibu to get closer to winning in its segment, 2016 could be its best chance.
