We Will Forget About Hoverboards: Predictions For The New Year From UC Davis Experts

Flagg Miller, professor of religious studies and author of The Audacious Ascetic: What the Bin Laden Tapes Reveal about Al-Qa’ida (Hurst, Oxford University Press, 2015; author's website), predicts that in the shadow of the 2016 presidential race, the American electorate will grant intelligence and national security officials extraordinary license to conduct surveillance of Muslim communities. Despite the proportionately low number of terrorist or mass-killing acts committed by Muslims when compared with non-Muslim extremists over the past two decades, efforts to prosecute Muslims on grounds of preventing terrorism will reach an unprecedented level.

Carlton Larson, professor at UC Davis School of Law, predicts that 2016 will see 5-4 decisions of a decidedly conservative bent. Last year’s term, in which liberals won most of the major cases, was unusual.

Fellow law school professor Lisa Pruitt predicts the Supreme Court will further curtail women’s rights to terminate a pregnancy by upholding as constitutional Texas regulations of abortion providers – regulations that have had the effect of closing dozens of abortion clinics since their passage in 2013.

Mindy S. Romero, director of the California Civic Engagement Project at the UC Davis Center for Regional Change, predicts no-party-preference voters will influence the 2016 elections to a degree never seen before.

In California specifically, Romero predicts that Latinos likely will set a record for percentage of the state’s voters in 2016 and young California voters could rival the high youth turnout in 2008. 

Rick Grosberg, director of the Coastal and Marine Sciences Institute, predicts that rising sea levels will become a major factor in coastal planning, especially after big storms this winter. Sustainable mariculture and aquaculture will be increasingly important to help supplement and sustain recreational and commercial fisheries in California and beyond.

Ted Grosholz, professor in the department of Environmental Science and Policy, adds that oceans and coastal ecosystems are being increasingly degraded by multiple stressors. Climate change is likely to push these heavily stressed systems beyond observable tipping points. For example, the intrusion of acidic, upwelled waters and storm-based river flows into coastal estuaries will continue to negatively impact commercial shellfisheries and the health of native shellfish populations. Rising ocean temperatures will result in more harmful algal blooms and pathogenic diseases that will mean more die-offs of coastal species.

Chelsea Rochman, marine ecologist at the UC Davis Aquatic Health Program, predicts that as attention on marine plastic debris has shifted to smaller items of plastic and land-based sources, more reports of synthetic fibers and micro- and nano-sized plastic fragments in aquatic habitats globally will increase. Moreover, it is likely there will be an increase in proposed legislation and infrastructure aimed at stopping plastics on land before they enter the sea, such as banning microbeads from personal care products and improved technologies for waste management.

Kevin Johnson, dean of the UC Davis School of Law, predicts that comprehensive immigration will have to wait for the next president. He is also predicting that in the remaining months of President Obama’s term we will see Congress consider more legislation against “sanctuary cities”as well as legislation designed to limit the president’s power to admit Muslim refugees.

Michael Siminovitch, a professor and director of the California Lighting Technology Center at UC Davis, predicts that while lighting design and technology will continue to address sustainability and carbon goals, but the newest innovations in technology and design will be on human factors issues related to health, well-being and comfort.

Sonia Yeh, a research scientist at UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies, predicts that in 2016, advanced automobile technologies ranging from better batteries to various degrees of automation in new high-end vehicles will continue to penetrate the market. Yeh also predicts there will be an increase in smartphone-based mobility services providing flexibility to consumers.

Giovanni Peri, professor of economics and chair of the UC Davis Economics Department, predicts that the number of international college students in the United States will reach 1.1 million, and almost half of them will come from China. Students from Asia and in particular from China will continue to be the fastest growing group because of economic growth in those countries, more active recruiting from U.S universities and because of the strict limitations on other visas’ availability.

Peri predicts the number of Mexicans in the United States will decline in 2016 after stagnating the last several years. As a result of these two trends, China will be the country with the largest net migration to the United States in 2016, followed by India.

J. Bruce German, professor at the UC Davis Department of Food Science and Technology and director of Foods for Health Institute, predicts that thanks to scientific research and innovation, the current food enterprise model will change from a commodity-driven, brand-valued, food product-centric model to a system that is more diet-driven, health-valued, consumer-centric and knowledge-based. Today, individual foods attempt to claim valuable properties through advertising and labels. In truth, it is the entire diet that matters, and in the future will see personal, smart technologies keeping track of what we do and what we like and, drawing from a scientific knowledge base, guide all of our choices of foods and beverages.

According to Ross Thompson, distinguished professor of psychology and affiliate for the UC Davis Center for Poverty Research, newer research is showing it isn’t just vocabulary, but also number sense, causal reasoning, and understanding of people that develops during the first three years of life. Thompson predicts the findings will cause us to rethink the large and small influences in the brain and the home that contribute to these developments.

Susan Handy, professor of environmental policy and director of the National Center for Sustainable Transportation, predicts that the hoverboard fad will fade, while bicycling and skateboard travel will grow in importance as a mode of transportation in urban areas. Simultaneously, reports of conflict between pedestrians, bicyclists, skateboarders and others will rise.