Telecom | Update
10 June 2019
Telecom
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Industry growth still elusive
RJio gains 180bp market share, takes no 2 position
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released its fourth-quarter
revenue report, which depicts a downtrend in the country’s telecom industry (AGR*
down 2% to INR316b).
RJio delivered 4% QoQ growth in AGR, capturing the number-two position (from
Bharti) with a 31.6% market share. Vodafone-Idea (VIL) maintained its number one
position with flat sequential growth and a 32.1% market share.
Bharti’s market share contracted steeply by 290bp QoQ to 27.2%. Its AGR declined by
11% QoQ, which is in stark contrast to that reported by the company (adjusted
revenue up 6% QoQ after netting off IUC) in its fourth-quarter results. There is
anomaly in the AGR trend in 6-7 circles.
RJio gained market share in 19/22 circles and is now the leader in 16/22 circles (v/s 4
in 3QFY19). Bharti lost market share in 13 circles and is now the leader in only one
circle – Karnataka (v/s 9 in 3Q). Vodafone Idea is the leader in five circles (v/s 9 in 3Q).
In our view, industry ARPU downtrading is now largely behind as there is limited price
differential among the top three players. However, once all the three players come at
par in terms of network capability, the subscriber churn will likely reduce, shifting the
focus again to ARPU accretion.
Industry AGR declines sequentially
Post some optimism in 3Q, the Indian telecom industry’s AGR* again lost steam in
4QFY19 with a decline of 2% QoQ (flat YoY) to INR316b. This can primarily be
ascribed to the 11% decline in Bharti’s AGR. Gross revenue was down 1% QoQ (-5%
YoY) to INR494b. For FY19, the industry’s AGR declined 2% to INR1,360b. However,
we note that the pace of decline has reduced significantly compared to the high-
single-digit fall seen until 2-3 quarters back. Despite the strong momentum in
subscriber addition by RJio, the industry’s overall subscriber base was impacted (-1%
QoQ to 1,162m) by the minimum recharge strategy adopted by the incumbents.
Industry’s adjusted AGR ARPU was down marginally by 2% QoQ to INR90.
AGR market share – RJio’s takes no. 2 position from Bharti
RJio’s AGR increased 4% QoQ in 4QFY19. Consequently, the company expanded
its market share to 31.6%, taking up the number two position. We, however,
note that the pace of RJio’s market share expansion has slowed down (+180bp
QoQ) from that in the previous two quarters (+350-400bp).
Bharti’s market share shrank steeply by 290bp QoQ to 27.2% (v/s 30.1% in
3QFY19), with AGR declining by 11% QoQ to INR86b – this is in stark contrast to
that reported by the company in its fourth-quarter results (adjusted revenue up
6% QoQ after netting off IUC cost).
Marred by intense competition for past several quarters, VIL reported flat
sequential growth in AGR, with market share expansion of 55bp to 32.1%.
Although VIL remains the number one operator, it is fast losing ground and, at
this pace, may find it difficult to retain this position over the next quarter or
two.
Aliasgar Shakir – Research Analyst
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 022 6129 1565
Hafeez Patel – Research Analyst
(Hafeez.Patel@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1568
10 June 2019
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Telecom | Update
Incumbents cede leadership to RJio in 12 more circles
On an AGR basis, RJio gained market share in 19/22 circles, tightening its hold in
the industry. Among these 19 circles, it gained a significant share of 11pp/46pp
QoQ in two circles (Mumbai/J&K) and in the range of 0-300bp QoQ in the
remaining 17 circles. RJio is now a leader in 16/22 circles (v/s 4 in 3QFY19),
except Delhi, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Kerala and Kolkata.
Bharti lost market share in 13 circles and is now a leader in only one circle –
Karnataka (9 in 3Q). Vodafone Idea is the leader in five circles (v/s 9 in 3Q), and
notably, has lost share in 12 circles.
Bharti’s AGR declines sharply
Bharti/VIL have seen sharp changes in its AGR figures in specific circles, which is
in stark contrast to that reported in their 4QFY19 results. Subsequently, their
revenue market share also stands changed significantly.
Bharti’s gross/AGR declined by 7%/11% QoQ with a sharp fall of over 15% in five
circles (Mumbai, Delhi, Karnataka, Kerala and J&K).
VIL, too, has seen a sharp both-way movement in its AGR. It witnessed over 10%
QoQ decline in five circles (v/s flat overall revenue) but steep growth of 74% in
the Delhi circle (even as its gross revenue declined 8%).
Some of the circles saw a steep shift in revenue from one operator to another.
For example, in Delhi, AGR declined by 47% for Bharti but grew 74% for VIL.
Some interesting and divergent trends were observed across regions. In some
cases, the AGR trends were not in tandem with the gross revenue trends (e.g. in
Mumbai and J&K). AGR for Mumbai declined nearly one-third (to INR8.7b),
while that of Karnataka was down 7% QoQ (to INR17.3b). On the other hand, it
increased steeply by 29% QoQ in Haryana and 4-7% QoQ in UP (E), UP (W) and
West Bengal. Bihar, Orissa, Assam too reported healthy 3-9% QoQ AGR growth,
while J&K’s AGR nearly halved sequentially.
ARPUs bottom out but improvement may take some time
According to our channel checks, industry downtrading is largely behind, and thus,
the pressure on ARPU should ease, going forward. However, we note that the
impact from IUC may continue exerting pressure on AGR. Further, with slowing
subscriber growth for RJio and the limited pricing differential, network capability will
become the key differentiating factor for the players. We believe Bharti and RJio’s
network capability is largely comparable. VIL will likely require another 3-4 quarters
to stabilize its network in the top 15 circles. Subsequently, as industry subscriber
churn reduces with comparable network capability, the focus would gradually shift
toward ARPU accretion to drive growth and profitability.
*Our adjusted AGR numbers are derived after deducting interconnect gains from TRAI’s reported gross
revenue, and adding national long distance (NLD) revenues to bring parity in the wireless revenues for
the industry, as well as the companies.
10 June 2019
2

Telecom | Update
Exhibit 1: Player-wise standing in circles
Industry QoQ
Industry
Gross subs
AGR
growth
ARPU
market share (%)
(INR b)
(%)
(INR)
Bharti VIL
RJio
Metro + A circles 123.0
-5.4
79.2
Mumbai
8.7
-31.1
76.4
23.6% 40.1% 31.4%
Delhi
11.6
-0.3
74.9
30.0% 36.4% 29.3%
Kolkata
4.5
-1.0
55.9
23.4% 34.5% 32.7%
Maharashtra
22.4
-0.6
79.3
16.4% 49.3% 25.2%
TN & Chennai
22.1
-3.1
89.1
30.6% 29.4% 23.8%
AP
21.7
-3.8
83.2
32.5% 25.7% 28.3%
Karnataka
17.3
-7.3
84.3
39.2% 21.9% 24.3%
Gujarat
14.8
0.5
70.7
16.6% 45.7% 28.1%
B Circles
91.8
3.2
64.4
UP-East
15.5
4.3
51.3
30.7% 34.2% 21.6%
Rajasthan
14.1
1.8
71.8
34.0% 25.9% 30.8%
Kerala
11.1
-3.3
84.2
11.9% 46.1% 16.6%
MP
15.2
0.0
66.7
19.8% 38.9% 30.9%
UP(W)
11.8
5.9
60.8
19.7% 44.8% 24.5%
Punjab
8.8
-0.9
74.3
25.7% 27.8% 30.7%
West Bengal
10.8
7.1
62.0
29.6% 43.9% 23.3%
Haryana
4.6
28.7
55.6
14.2% 38.3% 27.2%
C Circles
32.3
0.8
61.3
Bihar
14.5
5.3
55.7
43.5% 24.5% 26.3%
Orissa
6.6
8.6
66.5
37.2% 15.8% 28.1%
Assam
5.3
3.3
78.9
35.7% 26.1% 27.1%
HP
1.9
1.0
61.0
32.3% 13.4% 27.5%
J&K
1.5
-47.7
43.0
48.2% 11.0% 29.9%
North East
2.6
6.9
72.9
43.3% 19.8% 23.5%
Total
247.1
-1.5
70.5
Excludes NLD revenue
Subs market
share ranking
Bharti VIL RJio
3
2
3
3
1
1
1
3
2
1
3
3
3
3
2
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
1
1
3
1
1
1
2
1
1
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
2
2
3
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
1
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
AGR
market share (%)
Bharti
VIL
RJio
16.8%
19.3%
26.7%
15.2%
30.4%
32.9%
42.3%
9.7%
25.9%
28.4%
10.3%
16.6%
18.0%
21.9%
21.5%
14.2%
32.4%
29.9%
31.1%
30.8%
-16.8%
37.9%
26.9%
38.1%
43.0%
45.5%
28.4%
23.3%
19.1%
46.6%
28.6%
17.1%
53.8%
27.4%
31.4%
24.4%
29.9%
25.2%
10.6%
10.1%
17.9%
5.1%
12.2%
13.9%
36.8%
34.0%
22.3%
34.1%
32.1%
35.6%
27.0%
38.0%
41.5%
51.0%
21.8%
52.8%
44.2%
44.4%
45.3%
53.2%
54.0%
50.6%
46.3%
54.2%
91.6%
41.0%
AGR market
share ranking
Bharti VIL RJio
3
3
2
3
2
2
1
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
1
1
1
3
3
3
1
2
3
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
2
3
1
2
3
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Source: TRAI,
MOFSL
Exhibit 2: Reliance Jio Infocomm: Trend in adjusted AGR* and GR growth
21.3
AGR QoQ growth (%)
18.1
16.1
14.2
GR QoQ growth (%)
15.1
15.9
15.2
14.1
5.2
3.9
8.6
3.3
FY18
*Includes NLD revenue
FY19
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
10 June 2019
3

Telecom | Update
Exhibit 3: Bharti Airtel: Trend in adjusted AGR* and GR
growth
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
FY17
*Includes NLD revenue
FY18
FY19
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
AGR QoQ growth (%)
GR QoQ growth (%)
Exhibit 4: Vodafone Idea: Trend in adjusted AGR* and GR
growth
AGR QoQ growth (%)
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
FY17
*Includes NLD revenue
FY18
FY19
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
GR QoQ growth (%)
Exhibit 5: Player-wise adjusted AGR* (INR b)
Particulars
Bharti
Vodafone
Idea
RJio
Top 3 players
Other players
Total
1Q
146.3
182.2
0.1
328.6
167.5
496.1
FY17
2Q
143.6
175.0
0.3
318.9
143.5
462.4
3Q
134.1
167.3
4.4
305.8
121.8
427.6
4Q
125.2
143.1
-10.1
258.2
96.2
354.4
1Q
124.2
152.5
-9.6
267.2
87.8
355.0
FY18
2Q
116.3
137.3
44.0
297.6
81.0
378.6
3Q
106.9
127.6
53.4
287.9
54.7
342.6
4Q
101.0
119.2
63.0
283.2
34.4
317.6
1Q
101.9
111.7
72.0
285.6
36.1
321.8
FY19
2Q
3Q
98.8
97.1
104.8
83.5
287.1
32.0
319.1
101.8
96.1
295.1
27.5
322.6
4Q
86.1
101.5
99.9
287.4
28.6
316.0
QoQ
(%)
-11.4
-0.3
3.9
-2.6
3.9
-2.0
YoY
(%)
-14.8
-14.9
58.4
1.5
-17.0
-0.5
*includes NLD revenues
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
Exhibit 6: Player-wise adjusted AGR* market share (%)
Particulars
Bharti
Vodafone
Idea
RJio
Top 3 players
Other players
Total
1Q
29.5
36.7
0.0
66.2
33.8
100.0
2Q
31.1
37.8
0.1
69.0
31.0
100.0
FY17
3Q
31.4
39.1
1.0
71.5
28.5
100.0
4Q
35.3
40.4
-2.8
72.9
27.1
100.0
1Q
35.0
43.0
-2.7
75.3
24.7
100.0
2Q
30.7
36.3
11.6
78.6
21.4
100.0
FY18
3Q
31.2
37.2
15.6
84.0
16.0
100.0
4Q
31.8
37.5
19.8
89.2
10.8
100.0
1Q
31.7
34.7
22.4
88.8
11.2
100.0
FY19
2Q
3Q
31.0
30.1
32.8
26.2
90.0
10.0
100.0
31.6
29.8
91.5
8.5
100.0
4Q
27.2
32.1
31.6
91.0
9.0
100.0
QoQ
(%)
-286
55
180
-52
52
YoY
(%)
-455
-541
1,175
179
-179
*includes NLD revenues
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
Exhibit 7: Player-wise gross revenue (INR b)
Particulars
Bharti
Vodafone
Idea
RJio
Top 3 players
Other players
Total
1Q
188.1
234.8
0.1
423.0
164.7
587.7
FY17
2Q
185.7
227.2
0.6
413.5
164.4
577.9
3Q
178.4
216.7
3.4
398.5
150.1
548.6
4Q
175.1
195.1
7.9
378.1
134.1
512.2
1Q
183.2
216.5
17.8
417.5
120.2
537.7
FY18
2Q
182.2
205.2
76.7
464.2
103.0
567.2
3Q
171.2
187.1
79.3
437.6
72.9
510.4
4Q
185.3
199.5
86.1
470.9
51.4
522.2
1Q
166.3
176.3
99.9
442.6
44.4
487.0
FY19
2Q
3Q
162.3
165.9
169.5
115.0
446.9
37.4
484.3
166.1
131.2
463.2
34.1
497.4
4Q
154.5
168.0
138.1
460.6
33.5
494.1
QoQ
(%)
-6.9
1.1
5.2
-0.6
-1.8
-0.7
YoY
(%)
-16.6
-15.8
60.5
-2.2
-34.7
-5.4
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
10 June 2019
4

Telecom | Update
Exhibit 8: Player-wise gross revenue market share (%)
Particulars
Bharti
Vodafone
Idea
RJio
Top 3 players
Other players
Total
1Q
32.0
39.9
0.0
72.0
28.0
100.0
2Q
32.1
39.3
0.1
71.6
28.4
100.0
FY17
3Q
32.5
39.5
0.6
72.6
27.4
100.0
4Q
34.2
38.1
1.5
73.8
26.2
100.0
1Q
34.1
40.3
3.3
77.7
22.3
100.0
2Q
32.1
36.2
13.5
81.8
18.2
100.0
FY18
3Q
33.5
36.7
15.5
85.7
14.3
100.0
4Q
35.5
38.2
16.5
90.2
9.8
100.0
1Q
34.2
36.2
20.5
90.9
9.1
100.0
FY19
2Q
3Q
33.5
33.4
35.0
23.8
92.3
7.7
100.0
33.4
26.4
93.1
6.9
100.0
4Q
31.3
34.0
28.0
93.2
6.8
100.0
QoQ
(%)
-209
60
157
8
-8
YoY
(%)
-421
-422
1,147
305
-305
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
Exhibit 9: Bharti Airtel: AGR market share (%)
FY17
Metro + A circles
Mumbai
Delhi
Kolkata
Maharashtra
TN & Chennai
AP
Karnataka
Gujarat
B Circles
UP-East
Rajasthan
Kerala
MP
UP(W)
Punjab
West Bengal
Haryana
C Circles
Bihar
Orissa
Assam
HP
J&K
North East
Total
NLD as a % of AGR
ILD as a % of AGR
1Q
30.8
25.3
40.2
25.6
16.7
35.1
44.5
53.6
8.2
23.5
22.9
47.4
9.1
18.3
14.5
34.9
34.6
11.6
44.9
44.2
49.3
39.2
50.5
43.5
48.4
29.8
13.8
2.5
2Q
30.5
27.2
40.3
26.4
16.9
22.0
45.9
52.3
14.6
27.5
29.8
47.8
7.8
24.7
20.2
37.3
30.9
17.3
46.3
51.2
43.5
37.4
51.4
36.7
48.1
31.3
14.9
3.0
3Q
31.6
26.5
38.7
25.2
16.9
34.7
32.6
55.6
15.0
27.6
30.8
43.7
7.7
26.3
20.4
38.3
29.3
19.5
41.7
52.0
45.1
36.6
51.2
10.4
43.5
31.5
16.7
3.0
4Q
34.8
27.5
42.7
28.3
16.7
34.7
47.2
59.5
13.8
29.2
33.5
45.3
9.6
27.6
21.7
40.5
29.6
19.5
47.2
55.9
49.1
39.7
55.7
25.7
43.4
34.5
20.8
2.9
1Q
34.1
24.3
44.8
29.9
16.0
35.5
48.1
53.6
12.5
29.9
35.3
49.2
11.7
26.2
20.1
38.5
34.8
16.6
52.0
55.8
55.2
38.9
56.8
48.5
49.1
34.9
25.6
3.5
FY18
2Q
28.1
19.4
34.7
24.9
12.8
31.3
39.6
46.1
7.4
24.7
30.6
41.1
10.5
20.7
16.1
30.0
27.4
13.8
42.7
47.1
41.7
34.1
40.1
38.9
41.0
28.8
31.5
4.2
3Q
26.9
17.7
31.0
26.1
11.5
30.1
38.7
46.0
6.6
25.3
31.7
37.8
10.5
21.2
18.3
28.1
25.8
48.6
39.6
42.7
40.3
31.5
41.3
38.8
35.6
28.0
39.5
4.5
4Q
29.8
18.0
34.6
31.9
14.4
36.5
40.0
50.0
7.9
24.6
33.2
35.0
12.3
21.9
20.6
28.4
24.5
14.2
38.7
40.6
40.5
37.1
37.6
14.2
43.8
29.1
42.5
5.3
1Q
29.7
17.1
36.9
27.9
15.0
36.2
38.2
50.6
6.9
22.4
28.0
34.0
10.4
19.9
18.2
25.7
22.7
13.8
36.3
34.7
36.4
33.2
36.7
45.7
41.7
28.0
51.6
6.4
FY19
2Q
29.8
20.0
38.8
32.1
15.8
34.9
36.6
47.8
8.6
21.8
26.6
33.2
10.6
18.3
18.2
26.6
20.7
16.6
32.8
30.5
31.9
30.2
35.1
44.7
38.0
27.4
47.0
8.6
3Q
28.1
17.2
36.0
30.2
15.4
33.8
34.4
46.2
8.9
20.4
25.3
26.6
11.8
16.5
18.2
24.3
19.6
18.8
30.3
27.4
29.6
30.4
32.3
41.1
34.5
25.7
50.8
6.3
4Q
25.1
16.8
19.3
26.7
15.2
30.4
32.9
42.3
9.7
20.4
25.9
28.4
10.3
16.6
18.0
21.9
21.5
14.2
29.8
32.4
29.9
31.1
30.8
-16.8
37.9
24.0
45.4
5.5
QoQ
(bp)
YoY
(bp)
-303
-473
-40
-121
-1,672 -1,524
-345
-517
-27
78
-338
-611
-154
-713
-386
-770
85
180
0
-427
64
-726
182
-661
-149
-206
9
-532
-22
-262
-244
-649
191
-296
-460
1
-50
-885
503
-820
36
-1,055
78
-597
-150
-679
-5,785 -3,097
341
-596
-170
-516
-540
290
-79
21
Source: MOFSL, Company
10 June 2019
5

Telecom | Update
Exhibit 10: Vodafone Idea: AGR market share (%)
FY17
Metro + A circles
Mumbai
Delhi
Kolkata
Maharashtra
TN & Chennai
AP
Karnataka
Gujarat
B Circles
UP-East
Rajasthan
Kerala
MP
UP(W)
Punjab
West Bengal
Haryana
C Circles
Bihar
Orissa
Assam
HP
J&K
North East
Total
NLD as a % of AGR
ILD as a % of AGR
1Q
39.4
46.5
40.1
41.2
64.6
29.5
34.6
22.0
38.9
43.8
34.8
34.1
70.8
42.4
40.5
46.6
51.0
41.1
22.0
22.5
21.9
26.7
20.7
14.7
20.1
38.9
16.7
2.1
2Q
37.9
45.6
40.2
41.8
63.3
18.8
34.7
22.4
64.4
50.4
44.2
33.9
70.9
53.7
56.7
42.7
46.9
58.3
22.9
25.5
19.6
26.7
18.4
14.1
20.1
40.3
17.6
2.4
3Q
41.1
47.0
42.2
40.9
63.6
30.2
24.6
27.5
68.1
50.8
44.0
33.5
70.1
57.7
57.9
43.5
45.1
65.9
22.0
26.8
20.6
27.1
18.0
8.5
19.1
41.9
19.0
2.2
4Q
45.7
46.1
47.1
45.7
66.1
30.0
35.9
28.9
74.6
53.4
46.0
35.1
67.7
63.8
65.8
47.0
45.7
72.2
24.0
29.1
22.8
29.1
19.5
8.9
19.3
45.5
10.1
15.0
1Q
46.2
51.4
42.3
48.8
68.8
31.9
36.2
26.3
76.2
54.6
48.0
39.3
67.6
60.5
61.6
47.3
53.8
66.3
27.0
30.3
25.9
28.3
18.0
16.4
23.0
46.8
29.9
2.5
FY18
2Q
37.2
41.7
30.2
38.2
57.7
27.2
29.4
20.9
58.4
44.6
40.3
31.4
60.6
47.2
49.5
35.4
46.3
47.3
20.8
23.7
18.7
22.9
11.7
11.7
19.5
37.8
36.1
2.9
3Q
37.7
38.8
30.5
37.6
59.9
27.9
28.7
21.9
58.5
45.0
39.3
29.9
60.7
47.1
47.9
33.1
43.6
155.0
20.0
22.7
18.0
21.8
13.0
11.4
18.1
38.0
45.1
2.8
4Q
38.6
40.1
20.9
41.3
59.3
31.9
28.7
23.8
58.6
42.1
34.0
29.6
60.9
43.7
44.6
34.1
43.7
52.3
20.7
21.2
18.5
26.4
13.4
13.9
23.4
37.5
61.0
4.6
1Q
35.4
40.4
19.1
41.4
53.9
31.4
25.5
20.7
54.1
38.5
36.8
24.8
57.5
39.2
41.1
28.9
41.8
33.3
17.6
18.4
16.1
23.3
8.9
10.0
19.3
34.2
71.0
5.3
FY19
2Q
32.6
38.7
21.2
43.4
47.3
29.3
23.5
18.7
48.8
33.6
31.6
21.5
55.5
31.4
36.2
25.5
36.2
28.9
14.9
15.5
13.2
20.8
6.5
8.0
17.6
30.7
39.2
2.9
3Q
31.3
36.4
21.8
42.8
44.7
27.9
22.7
17.7
46.4
30.6
30.0
17.5
52.1
27.7
33.4
23.5
32.2
31.6
13.4
13.9
11.6
19.1
5.2
7.4
16.5
28.8
41.0
2.7
QoQ
YoY (bp)
(bp)
4Q
32.8
150
-579
26.9
-954 -1,324
38.1
1,626 1,715
43.0
18
167
45.5
80
-1,377
28.4
54
-349
23.3
61
-540
19.1
141
-473
46.6
20
-1,201
29.6
-100 -1,253
28.6
-143
-538
17.1
-40
-1,247
53.8
162
-709
27.4
-35
-1,637
31.4
-199 -1,323
24.4
93
-972
29.9
-228 -1,379
25.2
-641 -2,712
11.7
-169
-903
10.6
-323 -1,059
10.1
-154
-845
17.9
-121
-851
5.1
-16
-830
12.2
484
-173
13.9
-265
-949
28.9
9
-865
42.3
131 -1,871
2.8
10
-183
Source: MOFSL, Company
10 June 2019
6

Telecom | Update
Exhibit 11: Reliance Jio Infocomm: AGR market share (%)
2Q
13.9
11.3
16.5
13.2
12.3
12.8
14.2
12.3
20.3
14.4
10.9
15.2
10.2
16.6
15.3
18.3
14.4
20.4
12.6
11.6
14.3
10.9
22.6
11.8
10.9
13.9
3.0
0.2
FY18
3Q
18.3
17.7
23.9
19.8
17.3
15.5
18.6
14.2
25.0
21.2
15.9
22.7
13.1
22.4
21.8
26.8
20.9
108.5
21.4
21.0
23.5
18.4
26.9
25.7
17.8
19.7
-1.3
0.3
FY19
4Q
23.4
25.9
34.8
24.0
20.3
23.2
22.7
15.7
30.1
26.2
24.2
30.4
13.8
29.9
26.7
32.7
29.3
25.3
32.0
30.3
31.2
32.0
25.1
49.6
27.6
25.6
1.4
0.1
1Q
25.3
23.7
29.6
25.3
24.5
24.7
26.3
18.2
32.9
32.5
29.9
36.4
17.6
37.3
33.9
37.8
32.6
42.6
39.2
41.7
39.4
37.6
43.5
31.2
31.8
29.6
1.0
0.5
2Q
27.5
24.2
28.5
17.8
28.8
27.0
30.7
20.5
36.3
38.3
38.2
40.6
18.8
46.0
40.0
40.3
39.4
48.0
46.7
51.3
46.3
43.4
46.0
40.2
36.4
33.7
0.9
0.2
3Q
30.6
25.8
32.4
19.1
32.3
30.1
33.3
24.6
38.0
43.6
41.0
50.6
20.8
51.2
43.7
43.5
45.0
64.0
51.0
56.0
50.2
45.3
52.6
45.1
42.0
37.8
1.4
0.3
4Q
33.2
36.8
34.0
22.3
34.1
32.1
35.6
27.0
38.0
44.1
41.5
51.0
21.8
52.8
44.2
44.4
45.3
53.2
52.7
54.0
50.6
46.3
54.2
91.6
41.0
39.8
1.5
0.4
QoQ (bp)
268
1,107
157
322
176
199
233
242
-3
51
49
34
107
163
50
97
23
-1,079
175
-200
41
100
153
4,645
-95
204
10
15
YoY (bp)
986
1,092
-81
-168
1,375
888
1,297
1,125
789
1,788
1,729
2,058
806
2,291
1,744
1,172
1,595
2,788
2,070
2,377
1,937
1,430
2,902
4,194
1,349
1,427
10
37
Metro + A circles
Mumbai
Delhi
Kolkata
Maharashtra
TN & Chennai
AP
Karnataka
Gujarat
B Circles
UP-East
Rajasthan
Kerala
MP
UP(W)
Punjab
West Bengal
Haryana
C Circles
Bihar
Orissa
Assam
HP
J&K
North East
Total
NLD as a % of AGR
ILD as a % of AGR
Source: MOFSL, Company
10 June 2019
7

Telecom | Update
NOTES
10 June 2019
8

Telecom | Update
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within
following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
****************************************************************
****************************************************************
10 June 2019
9

Telecom | Update
The associates of MOFSL may have:
-
financial interest in the subject company
-
actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
-
received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
-
other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even
though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
-
acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
-
be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the
company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
-
received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
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Registration details: MOFSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412.
AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual
Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is
a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. *Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate
products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products.
* MOFSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing registration no(s) of MOFSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.
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