Can a year in which a player won three tournaments and went 54–16 be considered a disappointment? That’s how it felt with Nishikori in 2015. Yes, he finished in the Top 10 for the second straight year. Yes, he won titles on clay, hard courts and indoors. And as always, he produced some of the most entertainingly proactive baseline tennis of anyone on tour. But he failed to build on what he had done the previous season and, more important, failed to make himself a regular threat at the biggest events. After reaching the US Open final in 2014, he didn’t make the semifinals at a Grand Slam tournament in 2015, and he managed to reach the final four just twice at a Masters event.
At 26, what stage has Nishikori reached? Having spent just two years in the Top 10, he may still be developing. Stan Wawrinka, after all, didn’t really break through until he was 28. But from a physical standpoint, Nishikori doesn’t have the upside that Wawrinka and this decade’s other Grand Slam champions do. At 5'11", he lacks a bailout serve or an unstoppable weapon.
Just as important, Nishikori may have internalized those facts. His skills have been effusively praised by Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, and they should know a major-winning talent when they see one. But it’s hard to tell whether Nishikori really believes that he belongs with the best. This could be the year we find out.
Now that he has established himself in the Top 10, Nishikori’s ambition should finally match his abilities. If so, a Grand Slam title is within his grasp.
It’s hard to remember a player who has been slowed by the number and variety of injuries that Nishikori has. The next withdrawal is always just around the corner. He’ll likely win more small events, but the worst case for Nishikori would be failing to do any better at the bigger ones.
Nishikori has reached a crucial stage in his career. Can he finally make his confidence and durability match his talent?
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