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Weather

Will this winter be 'teeth-chattering' cold?

Nicholas Tantillo
The Journal News
3:26 p.m. A snow plow removes snow on I-287 Eastbound in Spring Valley as a nor'easter moves into the area March 7, 2018.

Hold onto your wool caps: we may be in for a brutal winter. 

Unlike other news stories predicting a warm, wet winter, the Farmers' Almanac predicts a "colder-than-normal" season, stretching from the Continental Divide to the Appalachians. 

“Contrary to the stories storming the web, our time-tested, long-range formula is pointing toward a very long, cold, and snow-filled winter," said editor Peter Geiger in a statement on the company's website. 

While the Farmers' Almanac is calling for a cold winter, the Old Farmer's Almanac —a separate forecaster — has predicted "above-normal temperatures" in most areas of the country. 

In an interview, Geiger said, “We start talking about the snows in the later part of November.” A number of snowstorms are predicted for the end of November and December. Several storms are forecast for March.

The middle of the U.S. will receive the most snow, he said. The Great Lakes and New England regions will see above-average snowfall.

Across the country, the coldest temperatures will arrive around mid-February, he said.  The winter season is expected to wrap up in late March.

The Farmers' Almanac is not to be confused with the rival Old Farmers' Almanac, which is billed as the oldest periodical in North America and also issues seasonal weather forecasts.

AccuWeather meteorologist Max Vido thinks the Old Farmer's Almanac is right about the temperature, but the amount of storms this winter can vary.

"You've only need one or two storms to put you over," Vido said.

Getting to these conclusions requires careful calculations and measuring tons variables according to Vido. AccuWeather hasn't released its forecast for the winter yet.

But Vido thinks the winter will start to get cold in February.

Overall, meteorologists generally scoff at the annual predictions from these almanacs.

"Your annual reminder that using the Farmers' Almanac for a seasonal meteorological outlook is about as good as going to a psychic," Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza said in a 2015 tweet.

Weather forecasting is "a rigorous and quantitative science steeped in physics, advanced math, fluid dynamics and thermodynamics," University of Georgia atmospheric scientist J. Marshall Shepherd wrote on Forbes.com. "Media fascination with predictions from almanacs or groundhogs perpetuates this perception."

 

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