It’s U.S. Open week and that means we’ll get several days of course ranting and analysis picking apart every blade of grass. The venue almost always becomes the biggest star of a U.S. Open. Players get frustrated, some mad. Analysts predict carnage. And fans try to figure out what kind of champion the reputed “toughest test in golf” will produce that given year.
This year, however, there’s not much to go on. The U.S. Open comes to Erin Hills in the middle of Wisconsin. It’s a public course that is just 11 years old. Only a couple players in the field played a few rounds during the 2011 U.S. Amateur but that’s it. Everyone is really coming into the week with no championship experience here and the same goes for the historians and experts.
The early reviews are categorizing this as a bomber’s paradise. It’s a course that measures as the longest in the history of the championship, but can play shorter because of prevailing winds. It can be stretched to close to 8,000 yards -- they won’t get there this week, but the point is, it’s a big piece of land. Also, uncharacteristically for a U.S. Open, the fairways and landing areas are pretty generous. There’s thick two-foot fescue that can wreck a round, but it will take a wild drive or shot to reach it. Some fairways get as wide as 75 yards. The greens are reportedly not too severe in undulation and also in some of the best condition, perhaps the best ever, for a U.S. Open.
Almost every course on the PGA Tour and in major championship golf tends to favor the biggest hitters. That’s just the nature of the modern game and where a player can gain the most significant edge over the majority of the field. But at Erin Hills, it sounds like that advantage may be particularly acute. So the odds favor the bigger hitters, who also happen to be the guys at the top of the world rankings, too.
As he was for the Masters, until he took a tumble down the stairs, Dustin Johnson is the clear favorite. Everything seems set up for the world No. 1 to defend his national championship. Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, and Jordan Spieth are all even with the second-lowest odds in the field, coming in at 12/1. Day and McIlroy are two elite power hitters, just like DJ, while Spieth is being tipped to have a field day on these true and perfect greens.
After the top four, you start to find some more value. It is, of course, a bit crazy to put your money behind someone in a 156-person golf tournament with low odds like the numbers mentioned above. The field is so big and it’s a game that is too fickle to make those kind of odds have any value. Tiger in his prime, when he’d get down to almost 3/1, wasn’t good value then either and he’d still often come through as an overwhelming favorite.
Here are odds to win for some the bigger names in the field, via OddsShark. Check out their coverage this week for more fun props and shifts in the lines.
- Dustin Johnson +750
- Jordan Spieth +1200
- Rory McIlroy +1200
- Jason Day +1400
- Jon Rahm +2000
- Rickie Fowler +2000
- Justin Rose +2200
- Sergio Garcia +2200
- Hideki Matsuyama +2800
- Henrik Stenson +2800
- Adam Scott +3000
- Justin Thomas +3300
- Brooks Koepka +4000
- Branden Grace +4000
- Thomas Pieters +4000
- Paul Casey +5000
- Alex Noren +5000
- Charl Schwartzel +5000
- Louis Oosthuizen +5000
- Jason Dufner +6600
- Matt Kuchar +6600
- Bubba Watson +6600
- Daniel Berger +6600
- Kevin Chappell +6600
- Kevin Kisner +6600
- Martin Kaymer +6600
- Shane Lowry +6600
- Patrick Reed +8000
- Billy Horschel +8000
- Francesco Molinari +8000
- Marc Leishman +8000
- Lee Westwood +10000
- Brandt Snedeker +10000
- Bud Cauley +10000
- Byeong-Hun An +10000
- Jimmy Walker +10000
- Matthew Fitzpatrick +10000
- Rafael Cabrera Bello +10000
- Russell Henley +10000
- Tyrrell Hatton +10000
- Adam Hadwin +12500
- Bernd Wiesberger +12500
- Brendan Steele +12500
- Emiliano Grillo +12500
- Gary Woodland +12500
- J.B. Holmes +12500
- Si Woo Kim +12500
- Steve Stricker +15000
- Tommy Fleetwood +15000
- Bill Haas +15000
- Brian Harman +15000
- Charley Hoffman +15000
- Graeme McDowell +15000
- Lucas Glover +15000
- Ross Fisher +15000
- Russell Knox +15000
- Stewart Cink +15000
- Webb Simpson +17500
- Zach Johnson +17500