Power & Coal monthly
All-India conventional
electricity generation (b kWh)
Conventional generation
Change YoY (%)
100
5
93
-6
Utilities | 13 December 2019
Sector: Utilities - Power
Power demand down for fourth straight month
PAF at NTPC plants improving; Availability for Talcher, Sipat recovers
Conventional generation decreases 6.5% YoY in Nov’19
Conventional electricity generation was down 6.5% YoY in Nov’19; the decline
was broad-based with generation down across regions. YTD generation growth
is up a mere 0.2%. Coal-based generation declined ~11% while Hydro and
Nuclear generation increased 24% and 13%, respectively in November.
Total generation down 6% YoY in Nov’19
Including renewable energy (RE), generation decreased 6% YoY in Nov’19 (YTD:
+0.4%). RE generation increased just 0.2% YoY in Nov’19.
Coal stocks now at 15 days
Coal stocks at power plants
Coal stocks at power plants
Stocks in days
15
8
At end-Nov’19, coal stocks at power plants stood at 15 days (v/s 12 days in
Oct’19) given the lower thermal generation and demand.
IEX volumes decline
DAM volumes on the IEX decreased ~0.4% YoY to 3.4b kWh. On trailing twelve
month (TTM) basis, volumes were down ~14%. Average prices stood at
INR2.85/kWh in Nov’19 (v/s INR2.71/kWh in Oct’19).
NTPC – Availability at plants improving
13
25
Availability factor for NTPC plants is showing signs of improvement post the
heavy monsoons. PAF at the company’s plants within Korba coalfield (Korba
Stage III and Sipat) was nearly ~100% for the month. Availability at Talcher also
improved to ~82% (v/s ~71% PAF for 7MFY20).
PLF for NTPC’s S/A plants declined ~1,030bp YoY to 66% for 8MFY20.
Exhibit 1: Power & Coal – Key snapshot
Total generation growth (%)
Conv. Generation growth (%)
RE generation growth (%)
All India Peak Demand (GW)
Capacity addition (GW)
Net Coal
7.0
5.0
Solar
5.5
9.4
Wind
5.4
1.8
Total capacity add
20.3
17.2
IEX traded volumes growth (%)
16.9
12.8
IEX avg. prices (INR/kWh)
2.4
3.3
Coal receipts by Power plants, growth (%)
-0.2
6.2
Coal cons. by Power plants, growth (%)
5.2
6.0
Coal stocks at Power plants (days)
19
10
Coal India Dispatches, growth (%)
2.0
6.9
Coal India Production, growth (%)
3.2
2.4
Note: YTD indicates data for 8mFY20;* indicates data for 7mFY20
FY17
5.8
4.7
24.0
158
FY18
5.4
4.1
24.9
161
FY19 YTD FY20
5.2
0.4
3.6
0.2
24.5
2.7
176
183
3.5
6.5
1.6
12.1
11.6
4.0
8.2
3.4
18
4.8
7.0
3.2
*
3.5
*
1.5
*
8.8
-15.7
3.1
*
-1.8
*
-0.7
15
-7.2
-7.8
Nov-19
-6.0
-6.5
0.2
155
0.0
na
na
na
-0.4
2.9
na
na
15
-7.6
-3.9
;
Aniket Mittal – Research Analyst
(Aniket.Mittal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1572
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.