Surviving Black Friday: How to set a budget and stick to it

Carols trickling from retailers' speakers signal the start of the holiday shopping season, and consumers are gearing up to give their wallets a workout.

The last months of the year can put an anxiety-inducing burden on personal finances. Consumers, on average, have charged about $5,400 to credit cards during the fourth quarter in the past four years, according to data from credit agency TransUnion. And U.S. shoppers are expected to spend about $805 each during the holidays this year, according to the National Retail Federation.

Where to find hidden Black Friday doorbusters

At least some shoppers are feeling good enough to spend more than last year. Deloitte's holiday survey of more than 4,000 people found that 19% plan to spend more this year, the highest share who said so since the recession.

Staying on track when you're bombarded with enticing deals for two months straight can be difficult, which is why savvy holiday shoppers need a game plan, financial advisers say. Here's how to break down your spending, plus a rundown of the days with the best deals.

• Decide how much to spend. A good rule of thumb is to allocate no more than 1.5% of your income — $750 if you make $50,000 a year, for example — for holiday expenses, says Carla Dearing, CEO of SUM 180, a financial planning service aimed at women. And don't forget big-ticket items: That number includes expenses such as flights, not just gifts, she says.

• Write it down. Whether you're a spreadsheet junkie or a compulsive list-maker, put your plan in writing. That includes at least a rough outline of who you to plan to spend on and how much you plan to spend, says John Rosenfeld, head of everyday banking at Citizens Bank. Keep your plan with you — such as on your phone or a notecard — so it's easy to reference while you shop.

• Significant others. Keep your budget within reason by agreeing to a spending limit ahead of time, says Ken Chaplin, senior vice president at TransUnion, and Sean McQuay, credit card expert from NerdWallet. You may also consider going in on a joint gift, or experience, you'll both enjoy, rather than purchasing separate items.

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• Credit vs. debit. To manage your money and hold yourself accountable, you may want to open a checking account solely for your holiday spending, Rosenfeld says, adding that he often hears from customers that they want the option to "segregate their funds into different pools. It keeps them from spending too much in one direction that wasn't intended."

If you plan to rely on credit, though, decide how much debt you're comfortable taking on and how you plan to pay it off, he says. And be cautious of store credit card offers promising 10% or 20% off — they also tend to have some of the higher credit card fees in the industry, and will negate any discount you initially received if you don't pay your bill in full, Rosenfeld says.

Not every holiday deal is created equal. Here's how to get the best savings based on what you're buying.

• Toys. The Saturday before Thanksgiving sees the largest single-day price drop for online toy deals, according to data from Adobe Marketing Cloud. Discounts average 18%. Although you've missed those deals, you'll also find deep discounts on Cyber Monday. However, Adobe's data have found that you're three times more likely to see items run out that day, too.

Black Friday deals start days in advance

• Electronics. If you don't feel like shopping on Thanksgiving for the blowout tech deals, the Monday before Thanksgiving — Nov. 23 — is also a good day for online deals, according to Adobe. The average discount is 18%, and the out-of-stock rate is six times lower than on the Thursday holiday.

• Clothes. Retailers tend to have compelling deals on apparel all season, but particularly Cyber Monday, says Kristin Cook, managing editor for Ben's Bargains, a website that tracks deals. Also, look for clothing the week leading up to and right after Christmas, when the discount is an average of 45% off, according to data from coupon site RetailMeNot. Winter coats especially tend to be on sale after Christmas, with savings up to 70%, RetailMeNot data show.

• Books/travel.  These are among the top discounted categories the week of Dec. 21-27, according to RetailMeNot. You'll see an average savings of 45% on books and 34% on travel.