The dangerous migrant road to Europe

By The Data Team

MIGRANTS have been making their way on boats to Europe for more than a decade. During the past few years, however, their numbers have soared. In 2015 over 1m crossed the Mediterranean. By far the largest share—around 850,000—travelled from Turkey to Greece, most of them Syrians fleeing their country’s bloody war. The sudden influx brought Europe’s asylum system to the brink of collapse. In March the EU struck a deal with Turkey’s president to take back any Syrians who made it as far as Greece. Far fewer Syrians have attempted the journey since then, and migration via Greece has plunged drastically. In February 57,000 people arrived in Greece, half of whom were Syrian. By September, the number had dwindled to 3,000.

Now the longer and more perilous central Mediterranean crossing, from Libya to Italy, has once again become the main migrant route to Europe. The influx has grown markedly of late, from 64,000 in 2011 to 150,000 last year. This is still far smaller than the peak flow on the Turkey-Greece route. However, it is a lot more dangerous. At least 3,600 people have died or gone missing crossing the Mediterranean this year, 85% of whom set off for Italy, according to the International Organisation for Migration’s Missing Migrants Project. The rate at which migrants die or vanish when departing from Libya is ten times higher than on the route to Greece. Many perish when overloaded boats, packed to the hilt by human traffickers, sink or catch fire. The lucky ones will be rescued by patrol ships run by charities or international aid groups. The influx is almost impossible to stem. It originates in dozens of countries, and moves via shifting networks of people-smugglers. Of those who make it to Europe, most will eventually be judged economic migrants, not refugees. But Libya is so lawless that they cannot be sent back there. Nor is it always possible to send them home, as their governments often refuse to accept them.

The routes African migrants take to reach the Libyan coast form a web across the continent (see map). Many pass through Agadez in northern Niger, where people-smuggling is a vibrant trade. Migrants are encouraged by family, friends who have already made it and rapacious recruiters, who promise a cheap and easy trip. Some think it is “only 15km over the sea to Italy”, says Maurice Miango of the IOM’s Agadez office. Others do not know that Libya is at war, or that they will have to travel across desert. And many do not understand that in Europe they may not have the right to work or attend school. Niger’s government has been enforcing a law passed last year that criminalises people-smuggling, and departures for Libya have dropped off. As people pay huge sums of money for an uncertain and deadly future, European governments are hardening their stance on immigration and a deadly trade fuelled by criminals.

Read more: Migration to Europe - Travelling in hope