The latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows the Liberals trending up, the NDP trending down, and the Conservatives holding steady.
The numbers, which were released at 6 a.m. on Sunday, Oct. 4, suggest:
- The Liberals are at 35.3 per cent support nationally
- The Conservatives are at 31.0 per cent support nationally
- The NDP is at 24.3 per cent support nationally
- The Green Party is at 4.5 per cent support nationally
The latest tracking by Nanos for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, released Oct. 4. (Nanos Research)
Poll respondents were asked: "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"
The results show, at the national level, that parties are beginning to break out of the three-way tie that dominated the earlier part of the campaign.
"We had 16 nights of a three-way tie. Now, the race is starting to break open," pollster Nik Nanos told CTV's Question Period on Sunday. "We've seen the New Democrats slide down and we've seen the Liberals incrementally creep up."
But while the Liberals have seen gains, Nanos said it is too soon to discount the Conservatives.
"Those Conservative numbers are very efficient at generating seats, so it's a little too early to declare who has the upper hand," he said. "Don't count the Conservatives out right now."
In recent weeks, Nanos said, party leaders have focused on controversial issues, such as debate over the niqab or the Trans-Pacific Partnership, in an effort to sway voters one way or another.
"It's basically the politics of fear," he said. "Everyone's looking at pressing hot buttons in order to push and move voters."
Nanos said this style of campaigning could be effective if it targets specific issues and populations.
"In my experience, these (strategies) are good for very targeted populations. For example, ridings that are touched by the auto sector, because when there's a trade deal people are worried about how it affects them," he said.
Looking forward, Nanos said the parties will likely begin focusing on getting voters out to advance polls and locking in their support.
Advance polls open on Friday and run through the long weekend.
"Booking your support is like putting money in the bank," Nanos said. "For all the federal parties, they will be furiously trying to get all the people that are supporting them today and saying 'You know what? Just tick that box.' "
Regional tracking
The latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows that, regionally:
- The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, with 52.1 per cent support, and in Ontario with 44 per cent support.
- The Conservatives lead in the Prairies, with 51.6 per cent support.
- In British Columbia, there is a tight race between the NDP (34.9 per cent) and the Liberals (34.3 per cent).
- The NDP lead in Quebec with 32.9 per cent, but support continues to slide.
Quebec-only chart
The latest Nanos tracking in Quebec, released Oct. 4, shows support for the NDP continuing to slide. The subsample for Quebec is based on 267 decided individuals. A sample of 267 respondents is accurate ±6.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. (Nanos Research)
Poll methodology
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,097 respondents is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Regionally, the margin of error is ±9.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, in Atlantic Canada; ±6.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, in Quebec; ±5.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, in Ontario; ±6.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, in the Prairies; and ±7.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, in British Columbia.
Gap between Harper and Trudeau narrows on preferred PM tracking
While Stephen Harper still has an advantage on the preferred prime minister measure, the latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail suggests that the gap between the Conservative Leader and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is narrowing.
Survey respondents were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"
According to numbers released Oct. 4:
- 31.7 per cent of respondents said they preferred Harper
- 29.4 per cent preferred Trudeau
- 22.7 per cent preferred NDP Leader Tom Mulcair
However, although Mulcair is currently third in the preferred prime minister measure, the NDP Leader scored highest on the measure about qualities of a good political leader.
For this measure, 56.7 per cent of respondents said they thought Mulcair has the qualities of a good political leader.
Meanwhile, 54.2 per cent said they thought Trudeau has those qualities, and 52.0 per cent said they thought Harper has those qualities.
According to the Nanos survey report, this suggests that Mulcair has goodwill as a party leader, but is not as comparatively strong when it comes to the preferred prime minister.
Survey methodology
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Full poll and survey at Nanos Research
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