The last week of the year is when the reality of the present year meets the promise of the next. This year has been particularly difficult. Any hope that there might be a year-end miracle is now over. As a businessperson, I have lived through many difficult periods. This one has been especially complicated: not just a recession but a real estate and credit crisis, too. This has been a very long year. I know of very few small businesses that haven’t seen a significant sales decline. But at some point, it is not about the recession. It is what you do about the recession.
In this case, I don’t know that everything is going to get “back to normal.” It will get to a new normal. I don’t think that we know what the new normal will look like. This is like a giant science experiment where you mix the Internet, excess commercial real estate, tighter borrowing standards, little to no inflation, pay cuts, lower real estate values, a depressed stock market, a new-found desire on the part of consumers to pay down credit cards and maybe even save money all mixed together to form the new normal. What will it look like?
It will be more efficient. It will be capitalism at its best and its worst. The winners will be the companies that figure out how to provide the best value to customers. The whiners will be the companies that complain about the economy and don’t do enough to respond to the new reality. The cavalry is not coming. If your company is not doing well, you need to adapt, innovate, and change.
One of the secrets to surviving and thriving in business is have resolve. It’s the ability to make things happen, to push back, to overcome obstacles to hit the refresh button. But there is another secret, a dark secret. Resolve’s evil twin is delusion. They may look the same. They may even feel the same. But they are not the same.
Resolve is necessary and productive. It gets successful businesses through difficult times. Delusion, on the other hand, can be very expensive. Access to easy money can feed delusion. Unrealistic sales projections can be dangerous if you use them to avoid cutting costs. Some businesses just won’t work. Some businesses that used to work get displaced. My father’s dime store, for example. Maybe the drug store on your corner.
Next year probably isn’t going to offer the full recovery that everyone is hoping for. I do think, though, that it will be a year that will position many companies for future success. Or failure. I am looking at every aspect of my company to assure that we are as efficient and effective as possible. I am also looking for examples where I have been delusional. It would not be the first time. I have lost thousands of dollars waiting for sales to catch up to my projections. The bad economy has provided an excellent excuse for 2009.
Unfortunately, excuses are one luxury that business owners cannot afford. We understand better than anyone that excuses do not pay the bills. Next week, I will review eight changes in the business world that are worth consideration as we forge on to future victories. In the meanwhile, get your resolve fired up. You will either actualize or rationalize.
Jay Goltz owns five small businesses in Chicago.